OOOOhhh Momma what a day Friday! Got the tree up, the last of the cards mailed off, and almost all the presents.....oh, and something happened with some ballots somewhere.
The Colemaniks have had from Nov. 5 to Dec. 18 (43 days) to get comfortable on their 215/192/188 lead. All of you have had about 22 hours.....but I get the feeling progressives enjoy life a little more! (And a glass of wine helps more than a glass of whine!)
OK, passing below the fold with most of the Orange ballots behind us.....and infinity measured in numbers under 10,000 (one ballot per lake in MN?) and in mere days (and time off for the holidays.)
See you under...the tree....(where both our kids loved to sleep during the season, waking up to lights and pine-y air....and we still consider them presents.....)
This is a milestone alright, as important as the end of the hand count across the state on the 5th.
Now there are certain numbers yet to come, but one BIG number will come on Monday, Dec. 22. (ONE guess who will have a live feed!) The Canvassing Board will meet 9:00-11:00am and Sec. of State Ritchie will deliver a set of numbers of the count so far, and this should give us a first, semi-official "Frankenlead." He said at a presser Friday his office will spend the weekend checking their math.
The challenged ballots are basically done, so only 4 groups of ballots are still hanging fire:
1) Challenged Ballots: WITHDRAWN (Number: about 5300)
Final Numbers on the Canvassing Board's Challenged Ballots: (The UpTake)
Jennifer: Our final challenge tally:
748 Franken
319 Coleman
233 Other
If we add, the CB dealt with 1300 challenged ballots. (A few more may come in)
Remember the total count of challenged ballots got up to 6655. Then both camps started WITHDRAWING challenges until Franken had about 415 actually undergo Board rulings. Coleman WITHDREW a bunch as well and had about 1016/no, 616/no, 885 up for review when the Board started (and which so many have been enjoying on the Paint Drying Channel; ;-)---actually an amazing number of people, even skinny kids in Orange from the West Coast, found democracy in action strangely riveting viewing.)
NOW the 5300+ or so WITHDRAWN Challenged ballots (6655 - 415 -885 = 5355) have to be restored to their UNchallenged piles (like the other 2.8 million), C,F, Barkely or other (as in spoiled/ no vote/ Libertarian/ FSM, etc).
THE most succinct summary of all this came yesterday in the comments from dairy v.31. As far as I can make out, subject to analysis and correction from the many wise heads that stalk these boards, so a great tip of the hat to chuco35 and his insight here:
Also the mix of the challenges is important. (2+ / 0-)
A withdrawn challenge returning a ballot to a 3d party candidate or the spoilt ballot pile is of no harm. However, a withdrawn challenge that returns an opponent's vote to his tally is a withdrawn challenge that allows the opponent to gain ground.
So it's not as easy as looking at how many challenges each side withdrew. The mix of those challenges is still an unknown factor to us.
"There's no housing bubble..." - Fed Chief Ben Bernanke, 10/27/2005
by chuco35 on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 11:27:46 AM CST
Great summation! (0+ / 0-)
Shalom.
"God has given wine to gladden the hearts of people." Psalm 104:15
by WineRev on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 11:52:10 AM CST
[ Parent | Reply to This | ]
o
I Might Add (0+ / 0-)
Nate's (Holy Odin of Numbers, Silver--WR) calculations are based on the Franken team's math. If anyone knows the mix of these withdrawn challenges, it is the campaigns. Presumably the Franken camp took this into consideration, allocating all the challenged ballots to the appropriate pile, since the Franken math is based on the local election judges's original determinations. So I feel most comfortable with Nate's plus 40 votes for Al in the end, than I do anything else.
by chuco35 on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 12:22:04 PM CST
SOoooo: 2.8 million ballots voted and recounted: Coleman leads by +188.
1500 challenged ballots decided by law ---voter intent--- and by a duly convened, in this case tri-partisan, State Canvassing Board. Coleman gains +319. Franken gains 748. SO Franken leads by (188+319-748) = +241
5000 withdrawn challenged ballots left to be "re-piled"; Timeline: sometime next week. Franken lead to fall?....Interesting speculation: Star Tribune is calculating that after ALL these 5300+ withdrawn challenges are put back into their respective piles, Franken will still lead...by +78. (Only 38 away from the Nate Silver latest estimate at the end of ALL ballots......or 51 away from his original +27.)
2) The "Blue Folder" (Number: 200-400)
As the Canvassing Board ruled on challenges both camps raised the issue of certain challenged ballots that had "incidents" attached to their being challenged. The Canvassing Board put these into the famous "blue folder". I'm sorry I'm a bit fuzzy on this set of ballots. I think its about 200 from each camp and I think the Board put them aside to either a)look at and rule on on Monday OR b) these might end up at the Supreme Court and then get sent back to the Canvassing Board.
But I wasn't able to follow this part very closely and there's very little up on the media so This entire section is subject to much addition, correction and greater wisdom. Nate Silver seems to think these ballots will be re-instated and with an advantage to Franken in the end.
So: 200-400 "Blue Folder" Ballots. Timeline: Sounds like the next 2 weeks or less.
Sooooo.....Franken lead from 1): +241 to +78. If the "blue folder ballots" break Franken 55-45% that would mean Franken +20 to +40. Sooooo...running total: Franken +281 (max.) to +98 (min.)
3) The Duplicate/Double Count Ballots (Number: 100-150)
Wednesday the Colemaniks brought these up, that overseas and other ballots that had been duplicated to run through the scanners need to match up with their originals, or some (100-150) could be double-counted, artificially inflating the count. The Canvassing Board declined to rule, saying they did not have jurisdiction.
Fair enough. Friday the Coleman team filed suit over it in the MN Supreme Court. Canvassing Board and Franken campaign have until Monday to respond and Court will hear oral arguments Tuesday, Dec. 23 at 2:00pm. Justice Page will preside again as CB members Magnuson and G. Berry Anderson (NOT Paul, who will hear the case) have both recused themselves. (UpTake has link to a PDF at the 5:09 time mark from yesterday. Don't know how to link to PDFs.)
Coleman's team filed for all the ground they could, leading off with asking the election results NOT be certified until this issue is settled. This is aggressive but fair in my book; otherwise if this goes Coleman's way but Franken is already certified the winner the task is very hard (and dammit, unfair to Coleman.)
Once again, it is THIS community that has generated the best summary of this, again from yesterday's diary comments (about 300 down!) BIG hat tip to FischFry:
That's not in dispute. The issue is the recount (0+ / 0-)
"(The Coleman legal team is) arguing the recount generated more votes because there were unmarked "duplicated" ballots counted, along with originals that the election boards could not match up to any duplicated ballots -- as required by law.
The duplicated ballots are supposed to be observed by judges from each party. And they're supposed to be marked "duplicate", along with the serial # from the original, so they can be matched up later to prove the duplicate is a correctly duplicated ballot.
What happened in the recount, is a whole bunch of originals got pulled out of envelopes and got thrown into the pile, even though the locals hadn't been able to find duplicates with matching serial #s.
Consequently, they argue that it's no coincidence that some precinct total increased during the recount, by the exact number of unmatched originals that were counted. In other words, the #s went up because the recount counted those originals and the corresponding, unmarked "duplicated" ballots.
I hate to have to agree with them, but this is a pretty compelling argument, if the factual predicate is how they represent it.
Coming Soon -- to an Internet connection near you: Armisticeproject.org
by FischFry on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 05:17:25 PM CST
The down side of being fair-minded: sometimes you have to go against your rooting interest. Coleman may have something here, subject to analysis and deeper thoughts from wiser heads. It is unclear if the 100-150 are all "pro-Coleman" votes or they just have reports from several sites that add up to this, so that these may break in something less than a shutout.
Soooo, if you're not wrapping presents or rinsing the lye off your codfish, Tuesday afternoon at 2:00pm CT the stadium fills again for the Minnesota Dream Team, the "Supremes." Will the voice of NFL Films make a return appearance?
So 100-150 "Double Count?/ Duplicate" ballots. Timeline: Maybe even this coming week; more likely by 12/31.
Sooooo if we have Franken after part 2) at +281 to +98, and lets say these duplicates are 125 and Coleman gets the bulk of them (say 90-35), then we have Franken at +226(max.) to +43(min.)
4) Rejected Absentee Ballots (Number: 500-2000)
About 290,000 absentee ballots across the state. About 278,000 properly filled out and counted along with Election Day ballots. About 12,000 absentee ballots rejected for counting. Approximately 10,000 to 11,500 of these rejected for 4 legal reasons. The remaining 500-2000 were the target of Coleman's suit on Monday ("Stop the Count"), heard Wednesday by the MN Supreme Ct., and ruled on in Thursday's decision. (Count goes on, Norm).
County election Boards and BOTH CAMPS to work out a mutually agreed process for accepting/rejecting these 500-2000.
Those accepted (and NEITHER camp gets to "peek first"; ie, "This is a vote for Barkley that doesn't have a zip code on the outer envelope--accepted by F & C"; Both sides have to do them blind) will then be opened and counted. Both sides have opportunity to challenge like other ballots up to now ("Stray mark!/ Lizard scale!/ Identifying mark: Voter wrote, "Election judge #4, Lyon County, U R SOOO hot! Call me") and the State Canvassing Board will convene and RULE on them.
Then adjusted totals are due in to Sec. of State's office on or before DEC. 31.
So then 1000-1600 Rejected Absentee Ballots. Timeline: By 12/31--fairly hard date.
The absentees by general consensus have been Franken-friendly. While Ritchie initially thought there might be 500 ballots in this part the conventional wisdom seems to be settling in at the bottom around 1000 and the top about 1600. If we take a midpoint of 1300 and say these ballots break 55-45% for Franken then he should net about 130: (715-585). So starting with the numbers from part 3 and adding these, we get Franken +356 (max.) to +173 (min.).
AND THEN: Words I want to hear/type and/or say: (let the Canvassing Board join in! Let the election judges say, 'Amen!') "We have NO MORE Ballots left to recount. And the winner is.........."
Legal Moves VI
Sure sign a latter-day Republican is losing an election?
His legal team is in court. Friday the Canvassing Board recount on challenged ballots moved Franken into the lead.....and Coleman's team back to the Supreme Court for a rematch with Team Franken and the Justice Page-led "Supremes."
Republicans Behaving Badly (episode #....higher than the total votes cast in the MN Sen. Race!)
David Brauer over at the MinnPost writes an important story on John Lott, a Reich-wing tool of number cooking.http://www.minnpost.com/... By manipulating the recount numbers (and frankly this HAS been complicated) and just ignoring certain others Lott tries to provide a numerical basis for Reich-wing screaming "Franken is stealing the election." Brauer slams back, but with Lott online, you too can bring Light Epees and Light Foils to run these people down. (And for all you fencers reading here (the WineRev's daughter, Winerev-ette, and son, Winrev-er, both wield the l'arm blanche (sp.?)) these Reich-wingers do NOT deserve "The Salute."; that is only for opponents of honor.)
PART II
On Wednesday the 17th the Colemaniks brought up the "duplicate ballots" double-count issue with the Canvassing Board. (They have now taken it to the Supreme Court, with some merit. See Above, Legal). OK, its their right. Take it to the Canvassing Board for a decision and have Trimble/Knaak/Magnuson make the case. Ditto with the Supreme Court. All quite proper, adult and dignified, right? None of that Florida Brooks Brothers's riot stuff......BUT, there was something.
TheUpTake (who has been totally amazing during the Recount!!) seems to have found something on 12/18 (day after) that is....well, probably not matching well with a suit...http://the-uptake.groups.theuptake.o...
Minnesota Deserves a Round of Applause
OK so WCCO IS the largest TV/Radio complex in the state, so this is sort of patting ourselves on the back. (Scandinavians are genetically averse to praise and often emotionally ..... hmmm...limited; Know how you can spot a Norwegian extrovert? It is someone who, when you meet them for the first time, looks at YOUR shoes.)
But its nicely said, by Esme Murphy,
The recount process has been, as Secretary of State Mark Ritchie promised, transparent. Every single challenged ballot has been available for public viewing on numerous websites. It will be a bitter loss for whoever finishes with fewer votes. But so far the process with all its blemishes has been fair and impressive to watch as it plays out in public view.
And from the New Media, Jay Weiner has a very nice recap of The Recount So Far that is worth a click: http://www.minnpost.com/...
Saturday Morning with the Minnesota Media
The paper has not arrived and the coffee will get cold soon so as a present I'll go over to "HotAir" (appropriate name) and see if the Reich-wing has som "thoughts" about the change in lead in the Senate Race. After all, YOU all had some thoughts, feelings and opinions, Right?
Morans for Coleman Dept.
First (snicker) you can see THE PLAN is working VERY well! (Rubs hands together)
Mark Ritchie is part of this.
They’ve been planning this year for the last seven years.
They will get away with it because
people like all of you do not listen to people like me.
Let me know when you are tired of losing.
MORE on THE PLAN (MWuuhahaha! You see it now, but it is too late!)
Today we are seeing the results of hippiedom. They’ve grown older but their fascination with destroying the United States (uhh, "The Man") has not dissipated.
So we see individuals like Franken, Pelosi, Kerry, the perpetual Kennedys, Schumer, Emanuel, Obama-as-grandfathered-in, Frank, Rangel (as grandfatheredly affiliated)...this is the product of Leftwing or Marxist/Communist infiltration (seriously) from the Sixties into our U.S. educational system. They’re now in their late adult lives and doing what they were indoctrinated to do, which is ruin "The Man."
Something that sounds genuinely dangerous, especially the opening & closing lines:
For the record (and the guy who just called my cell phone)
I was NOT saying that you should call me when you are tired of losing and ask me what strategy we need to win.
I simply meant that the people in our party get obsessed and with trivia on the other side of the aisle and distracted from what is really going on.
We need to unite in strength because they are already united with game plans and strategy planned out on a massive scale and we need to get a clue.
No, sir, whoever called me, we are NOT going to kill Democrats. We do not advocate violence against our fellow citizens. We do not need, want, or promote killing our political enemies.
You either
are a Democrat who has a warped view of Republicans or
a warped Republican who gives Republicans a bad name.
Either way, calling someone’s cell phone to promote mass murder is not going to endear you to anyone or solve anything.
And a call for clean government from the Purity Party:
Of course Franken is going to win. Until we learn to fight in the gutter with them, things will continue to spiral downward.
Disgusting.
Oops, there's the paper....hang on......
The Star Trib puts the Duchschere & Kaszuba story on the top of A1, but can't resist getting cute with the headline: "Visions of Senate race lead dance in Franken's head." All a dream, right? Naaah, just tacky, Star Trib, like a dried sugar syrup stain, tacky......Trimble (briefcase swinger, Coleman) says Team Norm not worried, we knew this would happen, and when withdrawn challenged ballots get added back in to totals next week it'll be Norm ahead: "We'll see our ship come in and we're quite pleased with that anitcipation...We've purchased our cruise tickets"....Ritchie has praise for the Canvassing Board and for his staff in the Sec. of State office, doing a compare and contrast with Florida 2000.....Elias (briefcase swinger, Franken) goes after the "duplicate ballots", calling it "panic" and "steps a losing campaign takes"; also said:
..."Both campaigns had earlier agreed that only original ballots would be counted in the recount, with duplicate substituted only when the original couldn't be located."...
you know, as true as that may be, Elias's comment doesn't speak to the possibility of both original AND duplicate having been recounted, which is what Coleman's side is about; nice lawyer move, Elias, but I think the Colemaniks still have something here.....no LTEs.....but lots of stuff for all of you....
Early shift again on the last weekend before Christmas in retail. Think we'll be busy? (It would be nice.....as they said in the Old Westerns, 'Things have been quiet......too quiet.') So here's the latest from yust southeast of Lake Wobegon.
Shalom.