As a resident of the Va. 5th Congressional district, I have often wished the local Democratic Party would nominate a strong candidate. Virgil Goode was a good ole boy conservative Democrat with generations in the region. His daddy was in Democratic politics and he was too until he jumped ship and turned anti-immigrant GOP embarrassment. Goode has also recently had questions about some of his friends in the defense industry. That plus the trending this year might make it a shoe in for a Democrat to take the district....but maybe not.
Once again, the local Democratic Party is ready to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Why?
The 5th can be seen as a rough triangle with the liberal college town of Charlottesville (and the surrounding *wealthy* hobby farmers near there) at the North apex.
Trailing along the Blue Ridge Mountains to the West, it comes down to Martinsville with its closing furniture factories and NASCAR race track. The base of the triangle goes along the NC border through Danville (closed fabric mills and empty tobacco warehouses/distribution) to South Boston and area, then North back to Charlottesville. In the center is the city of Lynchburg, the conservative home of Jerry Falwell and Liberty University. There are small liberal arts colleges in that district, but literally they are drops in the a very socially conservative bucket. This has been a GOP redoubt since they took over the state. While national Democrats do well within some city limits the district overwhelms them. (ex: Kerry won Danville in '04 but lost the district and the state).
The only real dents in the area have been made by Gov. Warner, then Kaine. And they do it by working with the Republican State Reps to get money and programs down there and presenting a "common sense" Democrat image.
So knowing these facts, what type of candidate do you nominate to run against Goode?
Because the district Democratic Party (based in Charlottesville) can't see beyond the rim of their tea cup. They are ADDICTED to repeatedly presenting Charlottesville lawyers or Albemarle Gentlemen Farmers for state and national elections in a district that is a large majority redneck tobacco/mill worker/farmer/Limbaugh listening/Fox watching conservative.
I'm at present working out of state but I read teacherken's diary about the Richmond Jeff-Jack dinner and saw there was a new candidate, Tom Perriello. I read his bio and I’m sure he is a great guy.....but Come ON! How many times does it take to get a clue. Perriello is a prep school & Yale graduate. He is currently teaching law at UVa. He seems to have spent his life in the most rarified air available for a Virginian. He shows social responsibility by using legal tools to go after the world’s bad guys. But still, what has he done for the tobacco farmer whose family relied on that cash crop for 150 years, all of a sudden to see it disappear. Or the Danville mill worker who watched Indians buy Dan River Mills and close the last fabric plant? What are his connections to the county courthouse machines in Rocky Mount (Goode’s base) or Chatham? Does he know where they are? Has he been to a race in Martinsville?
The district is changing due to the drop in supporting industry, and Warner/Kaine have been doing well there by paying attention and funneling redevelopment bucks.....but the local Dem.Party still haven't gotten the message. At least not with the bozos (..er...I mean Distinguished Gentlemen) they have been nominating. Hell, as a partisan Democrat, I'd have trouble identifying with them.
Unless there is an devastating election surge for the Democratic Party, I have trouble seeing Goode being unseated with this candidate. Which is a mistake. I truly hope Obama is the nominee and he will need every Democrat in Congress he can get. Every goddamn one. Super majorities to push through the very real structural changes necessary to advance America into the 21st century.
And Goode won’t be voting with Obama.
Ridge