As a detached observer and avowed political junkie, I am absolutely loving the ongoing drama of the Democratic race. Loving it. Can't get enough.
But as a partisan Democrat and recent convert to the Church of Obamalogy, I'm starting to get just a little concerned. Here's why:
OK, so by now everyone knows that you need 2,025 delegates to win the Democratic nomination, right? (If you don't know that, then you should probably find someplace to hang out online that's more suited to your level of intellectual and civic curiosity. The Hannah Montana website is tv.disney.go.com/disneychannel/hannahmontana/.) According to Wikipedia, Barack Obama currently has about 975 pledged delegates to Hillary Clinton's 907. Throw in the super delegates, of which Obama has 126 and Clinton 223, and you end up with a current total delegate count that looks something like this:
Obama: 1,101
Clinton: 1,130
(I understand that these numbers are disputed, sometimes ardently, by the media and the campaigns themselves. And we all know that the procedures for counting and assigning delegates varies from state to state and often entails a level of complexity that makes quantum mechanics look like sudoku. But every estimate I've seen of the delegate totals seems to be in this general range.)
As of today, there are 1,554 total delegates left to win -- 1,243 through primaries and caucuses, and 311 super delegates. Basic math tells me that in order to get the nomination, Obama needs to win 924 more delegates (about 60% of those remaining), while Clinton needs to win 895 (about 58%).
While certainly not impossible, the chances of either candidate winning 58-60% of the remaining delegates gets a bit less with each contest. On the basis of pledged delegates, Obama and Clinton have been pretty much neck-and-neck, splitting the votes almost right down the middle (about 52-48, delegate-wise, in favor of Obama by my calculations). If they keep divvying up the vote the way they have been, neither of them is going to make it to 2,025.
But there's another wrinkle. So far, Hillary Clinton has been able to lock up the super delegates by a factor of 64% to 36%. Now, super delegates aren't bound to adhere to these commitments, and there's certainly no guarantee that HRC will continue to collect super delegate pledges at the rate she has done. But the Clintons have deep roots in the Democratic party power structure, an advantage that Obama may find difficult to overcome. If Clinton retains her super delegate margin, then Obama would need to win 65% of the remaining pledged delegates to overtake her and secure the nomination. Again, not impossible, but undoubtedly a tall order.
As exciting as it is, this Democratic race has some potential outcomes that could be harmful to the party's chances of retaking the White House. What if Obama has a majority of pledged delegates won through primaries and caucuses, but Clinton wins the nomination as a result of the super delegates? Do we really want to send the message that the opinion of party insiders trumps the will will of the voters? Or what if the nomination came down to seating the delegations from Michigan and Florida? That would undoubtedly lead to an ugly fight on the floor of the convention -- not exactly the kind of display of unity we might want in launching the race against John McCain.
Both of these Democrats are excellent candidates. I support Barack Obama for a variety of reasons that I have discussed in other places, but I would not be disappointed to see a Hillary Clinton presidency. My concern is how the race has been (and will continue to be) portrayed by the media. In their zeal for a salable story, they are already framing the race as a drama in which Obama is the underdog hero and Clinton the establishment villain. That's not accurate or fair, and it maliciously devalues Senator Clinton's proven intelligence, ability, and experience. It also seriously wounds her going into the general election. And if no clear winner emerges from the primaries, and the nomination is decided by perceived Machiavellian maneuvering at the convention? My assumption is that Hillary Clinton has the upper hand in such a scenario, but it would probably look like a tainted victory no matter who came out on top.
So I'm torn. I want to see Obama win, because I think he has the best chance of defeating McCain come November. But I also believe that it will be a difficult and tight race, and that Hillary Clinton will do whatever she can to win. And who wouldn't? If you're only going to get one shot at your lifelong dream you're certainly not going to let it slip away for the sake of appearances. And Hillary Clinton is eminently qualified to be President of the United States. So I don't want to see her framed as the villain, both because it's not true, and because it hurts her chances of winning the presidency. And I'm concerned that events are unfolding in such a way that could make for dissension and ugliness at the very moment we most need unity and legitimacy.