We have learned this week about pressure from both candidate camps, but especially from the Clinton side, being aimed at the Super Delegates. We’ve also read that Clinton surrogates have ramped up the pressure on the Michigan/Florida issue. Finally, last night, we read and heard about the supposed pushback from at least one Clinton Super and the suggestion that Clinton needs to start winning contests by health margins in order to keep what SD support she might have. The media narrative now seems to be that Clinton is trying to win this one delegate at a time, regardless of what happens at the ballot box.
There are some angles that have not been discussed in the mainstream media. To me, the important facet that has not been reported is the fact that Clinton has already lost the fight to control any behind the scenes maneuvering on Michigan and Florida. To seat those delegations, short of Obama withdrawing from the race before the convention, Clinton will have to convince Howard Dean to seat those delegations before the convention opens or will have to convince the super delegates to take matters into their own hands and force a floor vote to seat those states.
First, the full disclosure that I think is probably worthwhile in all of these diaries. I’m from Chicago. I support Obama. I’m a Democrat and I will vote for whoever wins the nomination. I have not yet supported Obama financially, partially because I still feel stung from 4 years ago, so I’m waiting to see how he handles the swift-boaters. But I feel strongly that he is the candidate that can transform our debate. We need not discuss whether this candidate’s position might be a little better on one issue, or a little worse on another (knowing that neither will get their proposals enacted, because there won’t be enough support in Congress). I think Obama is the candidate who can inspire and energize progressive voters, many who haven’t voted in decades, to come out and sweep progressive candidates into office in waves. If this happens, we’ll no longer have to think of policy agendas through the lens of having to negotiate with the conservative wing of our own party, we can dream big for the first time in all of our lives. He can convince Republican voters to believe they are more liberal than they really are, just like Reagan convinced Democratic voters they were more conservative than they really were. He’s not the next RFK, or JFK. He could be our FDR, and his arrival with 300 seats in the house and 60 seats in the Senate is not out of the question.
Clinton will, I believe, continue the family legacy of trying to win by appealing to a thin slice of voters in the middle, who would otherwise be inclined to vote Republican; continue the family legacy of positioning herself on divisive issues as Republican Lite; and continue the family legacy of failing to wear coat-tails of any kind, ultimately costing us control of the Congress. But as I said, I’ll certainly take her over McCain or anyone else they might put up over there.
That said, and back to my point, I think that all of the talk and worry about what super delegates might do, both in forums such as this one and, more recently, in the media, has been, for the most part, a waste of energy. It is my view that Super Delegates are cast in the role of Party Elder and charged with the responsibility of acting in the best interest of the Party. I am quite certain that the Super Delegates, who by and large are professional politicians and who already represent you, after all, will realize that what is best for the party is unity and legitimacy for the candidate and not a floor fight. There will come a time, whether after March 4, after Pennsylvania, or after June, when one candidate will have a mathematically insurmountable lead in both the popular vote and pledged delegate counts (even if only a plurality). At that point, there will be enormous pressure from these party elders on the trailing candidate to withdraw. Once the candidate withdraws, his/her delegates are released and you will see everyone line up with the triumphant candidate. The Supers will endorse, Michigan and Florida will be seated, and everyone will travel to Denver for a show of unity. (And no, Harold Ickes and Bill Clinton alone will not be able to stop it; heck, Barack Obama is a Super Delegate, and he wouldn’t be able to stop the tide either should it go against him).
What has happened since Super Tuesday, however, is that one outlet for Clinton to win has been removed. A popular misconception about the Michigan and Florida situation is that it will be resolved by the Credentials Committee before the Convention. In fact, there is no credentials challenge to be made, because the delegates from those states will never be placed on the Temporary Roll, from which a challenge can be made. (Think of it as if your state, entitled to 100 delegates, showed up instead with 200 and expected to seat all of them; the bona fide 100 were on the Temporary Roll, but the extra 100 were not. There would be no need to challenge the extra 100 because, well, in the eyes of the Convention, they just don’t exist).
In order to restore the Michigan and Florida delegations, the Rules and Bylaws Committee would have to adopt a change to the Delegate Selection Rules and to the 2008 Call that specified the number of delegates to which each state is entitled, as well as the penalties for noncompliance with the timing of the selection schedule. The Rules Committee, like the Credentials Committee, is a standing Committee of the National Convention. Its composition is spelled out in the Call as consisting 25 members (including a chairperson) named by Howard Dean and 144 allocated to and selected by the states. The state delegates, in turn, must be allocated to the presidential candidates in proportion to their statewide vote in the given state.
This is where it gets tough for Clinton. Because fully 38 of the 51 states + DC seat 3 or fewer on each Committee (and 21 states seat just one member), Clinton’s decision to skip all of those small states has hurt her. The Committee votes are allocated either 1-1, regardless of the popular vote margin (should the state receive 2 votes), or the winner of the state receives a one committee vote advantage. Out of those 24 states that have voted already and that receive 3 Committee members or fewer, Obama got a voting advantage on the DNC Committees of 23-15. Additionally, Obama’s large win in Illinois gave him a 5-2 advantage from that state alone. Clinton’s relatively small margins in other states do not close the gap. To date, Obama controls the state-allocated committee membership by 48.25-39.25 (with 1 for Edwards).
With just 55.5 Committee votes still to be allocated, no scenario remains for Clinton to close this gap. Even awarding Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Vermont and West Virginia to Clinton, she will net no more than 1 vote in any of them and split an even number of Committee votes in some. Her best case will be to receive no more than 67.75 of the 144 committee votes allocated to the states.
The point here is that Clinton cannot control her own destiny by seating Michigan and Florida and winning from there. If she has enough popular support without Michigan and Florida, then as I suggested above, the point will be moot. The super delegates will fall in line and the two states will be seated in a show of unity. But what happens if Obama narrowly leads except for Michigan and Florida, and seating those states could swing the lead the other way?
There are four players involved: Clinton, Obama, Dean (through his appointees to the Rules Committee) and the Super Delegates (who may or may not speak as one voice). I think it unlikely that Obama would commit electicide by siding with Clinton to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations, if that would put her into the lead. Dean is truly between a rock and a hard place. While the arguments against disenfranchisement are strong, he has the institutional responsibility to ensure that, 4 years from now, the DNC can adopt rules governing the nomination process and have them respected by the state parties.
Meanwhile, what to do with the Supers. If a Dean-controlled Rules Committee refuses to change the rules to permit those two states to be seated, the Clinton delegates could well choose to force a Minority Report to be taken to the Convention Floor for final determination. This would focus the glare of attention directly on the Super Delegates. There would be a debate and roll call on the floor, the likes of which has not occurred in a generation. The ramifications would be huge, because everyone would know that the vote whether to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates would determine whether the nomination will swing from Obama to Clinton.
One Super Delegate gave a guest lecture last week in a college course taught by a friend of mine (himself a pledged delegate). The Super Delegate suggested that Michigan and Florida are the real powder keg, because if they are seated in a fashion that is perceived as swinging the nomination from Obama to Clinton, you could see a walkout by the African American delegates, and divisiveness that we have not seen since 1968. The implication, of course, was that if the convention refused to seat Michigan and Florida, thus blocking Clinton from the nomination, there could also be ramifications.
The DNC has suggested that these two states have new primaries or caucuses, which could certainly be done in the interval before Pennsylvania. Michigan and Florida would retain the influence that they originally sought when they tried to leapfrog the schedule, and everyone would get to campaign. This could be a face-saving move for everyone. They could be canceled if one candidate withdraws after March 4, but that’s unlikely.
I do think it unlikely that the nightmare will come to pass. I think that both candidates are in this to the end of the Primary calendar, in June, but at that point I would be surprised if one or the other does not have at least some plurality that causes the Supers to fall in line and puts the handwriting on the wall.
Now, I think it’s worth pointing out that throughout this diary, I’ve never suggested that the Florida and Michigan delegates could combine to give Clinton the number of delegates that she would need to be nominated. They can’t. If those two states are included, the number of total delegates at the convention increases by 366, and the number needed to nominate goes up by 183, from 2025 to 2208. Most estimates show that Clinton gains a net of no more than 100 or so, depending on the undecided votes from Michigan. So this is an exercise of Clinton wanting to put herself in the position of being the candidate, potentially, with the plurality of popular and pledged delegate support. From there, she could demand that Super Delegates fall in behind her.
I’m old enough to remember when Super Delegates were created, as a response to the 1972 Convention that saw a large portion of the elected Illinois delegation, led by Old Mayor Daley, get unseated and replaced by an unelected delegation led by Jesse Jackson. Nominee George McGovern eventually went down in flames, receiving just 37.5 percent of the popular vote. Super Delegates were implemented in part to ensure that party leaders were guaranteed their spot on the Convention Floor and in part so that the "wisdom" of the leaders would be guaranteed to play at least "some" role in determining the party’s nominee. I don’t think that the Supers would ever really come into serious play except as a tie-breaker or a multi-ballot situation; but the events of this year, particularly involving Michigan and Florida, have set the Supers up for a lose-lose situation, even should the tiebreaker role arise.
The bottom line, to me, is that we are seeing the result of the Clintons’ failure to anticipate this race continuing beyond February 5. They did not see any risk to ceding the small "red" states to Obama. Now, Obama controls the Committee memberships. The Clintons are forced to lobby Super Delegates not just for nomination support, but to attempt to pressure the DNC, through its 25 member block on the Rules Committee, to support the effort to change the rules and get Michigan and Florida seated without a floor fight. The Super Delegates, will resist this as much as possible, but the Clintons are determined and powerful. Will the the Clintons succeed? And, I hate to ask, but are the Clintons willing to win even if takes a floor fight?