A lot of talk has surfaced about the need for Clinton to have a landslide in Texas and in Ohio. I don't know about Ohio, but as a Texan, and as someone who has been looking at the map and the rules, I think it will be difficult. In fact, I believe there is a chance for Obama to make it close (winning would be tough). But by making it close, and in securing almost as many delegates as Clinton, then March 4 can be a decisive day for Obama. The reasons are:
- The Hybrid System
- The Proportionate Allotment of Delegates
- "Open" Primary
- The Demographics
- The Feeling on the Ground
There are some clear advantages that Clinton has now. She is conducting a "Giuliani plan" in Texas, and is demonstrating this by going to El Paso and San Antonio while Obama is is Wisconsin. These areas have large Latino populations. She is up in the polls. She does have the same initial advantage of name recognition in certain communities. She has some key endorsements, particularly in the valley. Also, Early Voting starts on Tuesday, Feb. 19 (Yes, next Tuesday), and if there isn't enough Obama activity by then, then she can have the same advantage that she did in California.
But a lot of other factors make a landslide scenario highly unlikely.
- The Hybrid System: 1/3 of the delegates will be alloted through conventions, starting with a "precinct convention" which is a caucus at the precinct level. Thousands of these caucuses will be conducted throughout the state, available to anyone who first votes in the primary. This means the ground game will be important, and Obama does well with this. Of course, if Obama supporters get complacent after the recent victories, then it can be a different story.
- The Proportionate Allocation: The Lonestar Report has a map of the allocation based on State Senate Districts. This is how delegates are allocated from the primary. And the numbers are based on 2004 Presidential and 2006 Gubernatorial Democratic votes (not Democratic Registration). The South has only 22. Houston/Galveston has 26. Austin has 8. The Obama campaign is campaigning everywhere (I saw the staff on Monday). But even a best-case scenario for Clinton will be limited based on the regions that she'd do well and the ones where she'd not do well.
- "Open" Primary: People choose the party when they vote. So it doesn't matter what you're registered as. It's not technically "open", because by choosing, you are then technically a Democrat. Independents and Williamson County Republicans (suburban Republicans) who are thinking blue, can choose Obama.
- Demographics: I don't believe that Latinos in Texas and Latinos in California are the same. California had the Pete Wilson anti-immigrant debacle. In Texas, Bush did well as both governor and president. 2006 showed a clear shift towards Democratic support, but this isn't an entrenched constituency like it is in California. Nor are working-class whites. There's no Democratic machine in Texas like you find on the coasts. Only a Republican machine (one that is breaking down quickly).
- Feeling on the Ground: I can only attest to Austin, but the feeling on the ground is all about Obama. And Austin alone can shift a number of delegates. Of course, this depends on what happens with Obama supporters. If they (actually, I must confess, "we") are complacent after the Potomac Primary, then it will be really hard for Obama to get close in Texas.
Update 1: Saw a TV Commercial from Obama on Healthcare in Austin.