I read a lot of blogs about the current state of the race. Two of the ones I have been reading(Talkleft and MyDD), seem to put a lot on the idea that Florida and Michigan must be counted in the nomination. This issue is heating up. I have a suggestion for Obama to deal with this, without standing against the DNC or helping Clinton.
I believe that he should ask the DNC to return to the original punishment listed in the rules.
I believe this could be used in the next debate against Clinton. It would undercut any possible lead from her and make it nearly impossible to catch up. I also believe that he could discuss this with the DNC before doing it, in order to make sure that it would be a passable solution. I am not good at phrasing, so this could obviously be made to sound better.
If I were Obama, I would ask the DNC to put back the original punishment. I would urge Senator Clinton to do the same thing. The reasons I would give for this are as follows:
- It is important for every state to have a voice in the nomination of a Democratic Presidential candidate.
- It is important that unanimously agreed upon rules should be followed by all of the states in the future.
- Michigan and Florida were punished, since their race did not affect the momentum, narrative or overall standing of the race.
- No one campaigned in the states, so Michigan and Florida did not gain the financial push they could have.
- There is a lot of emotion on both sides of the issue, and he understands where all the parties stand.
- The race is very close, and it is causing this to become more emotional.
I think if he included in this a suggestion to handle this in the future. I would suggest never removing the entire delegation, instead setting the number no less than 25%. I would leave in place the rules against Super Delegates from the state counting. I would put something in the bylaws to punish candidates that campaign in those states.
The reason I think he should do this, is because it takes the last chance away from Clinton. I would attempt to get the Uncommitted delegates from Michigan to be declared committed for me, but I wouldn't fight too hard for that. For Clinton to win, she needs to have an argument towards the fact that she has the delegate lead(or is awfully close). Clinton is currently behind by approximately 135 delegates. Seating half the delegates from Florida in Michigan would divide up as follows:
Michigan:
Obama 0 (or uncommitted number)
Clinton 36.5 (originally 73)
Uncommitted 27.5 (originally 55)
Florida:
Obama 33.5 (originally 67)
Clinton 52.5 (originally 105)
I am not sure how the 1/2 delegates go. So, at worst case under this solution, Clinton would claim a margin of 55.5 pledged delegates. Obama is currently ahead by approximately 135 pledged delegates. Clinton also has a bunch of Super Delegates from Florida and Michigan, which would not be counted under the original rules. If you allow the entire delegations to seat(with no change to Uncommitted), Clinton gains 111. This is the argument people are going off of. Using the 111 as the margin of delegates between them from Florida and Michigan, Clinton is only down by 24 delegates. Using the 55.5 number as the difference in the number of delegates between them for Florida and Michigan, Clinton is down by 79.5.
If Obama were able to get the Uncommitted(or exit poll amount of them, or half of them) committed to him, it would also cut down any gain. Wikipedia(no idea where the number comes from) suggests that 42% of the Uncommitted would have voted for Obama. That would mean 23 delegates, which would cut Clinton's gain there from 36.5, to 25. That plus the gain in Florida would only be 44 delegates. If he got all of the Uncommitted delegates, her gain would only be 28.
To reiterate:
Leaving uncommitted as Uncommitted would put the final margin between them at 79.5.
Having the percent of Uncommitted who would have voted for him as Obama would put the final margin at 89.
Having all of the Uncommitted delegates as Obama would put the final margin at 107.
Whatever path is used, Clinton would also lose 10 Super Delegates(from my last look at it).
There has always been the risk that Clinton would be able to seat those delegations. I believe Obama will win in Wisconsin. If he can keep the other races close, I can't see a way in which Clinton could close the gap. It would also answer his critics and take away one of the main arguments from the other websites. If he can get past 100, after one of these deals, there is no way Clinton can win the nomination.
This issue is heating up. With the new letter to the DNC urging them to let every vote count. I think the DNC and Obama can easily head off any problem and undercut any opposing argument using this method.
First diary, hope you are still here and enjoyed my line of thought.