Cross posted from Raising Kaine. For more analysis of yesterday's result in Virginia, check out Raising Kaine, the top progressive community in the Commonwealth.
Hillary Clinton gained only a meagre 35% of the Virginia vote yesterday, compared to Barack Obama's staggering 64% of the votes. A portion of this large margin of defeat was due to the fact that disaffected Republicans took advantage of the open primary process, and likely crossed over and voted in the Democratic primary for Obama.
The media didn't do exit poll questions on this issue, but there is some anecdotal evidence of this phenomena. For example, on the right-wing However, some Republicans crossed over to vote for Clinton as well. Unfortunately for her, it's looking like some of these votes were not registered by supporters or fans. Instead, these were mischievous conservatives hoping to benefit John McCain by voting for who they perceived to be the weaker Democratic candidate for the general election. In other words, some of the 35% of Virginia Democratic primary voters that picked Clinton did so as pro-McCain voters, not picking her because they support her but because they want McCain to face (and beat) her in November.
National Review's website, they posted this email from a Virginia voter:
My wife and I have never voted for anything left of Republican, frequently voting on the Conservative party line when available. Yet today, we both voted for Hillary in the VA primary. Why? Because it seems McCain has it wrapped up, so why waste our vote on the Republican side; she is a lot less scary than Obama in many ways (better the Devil you know), and I think she is more easily beaten with her high negatives and lack of charisma. So we were part of the high Dem turn out today which I am sure you will hear about. And there is no way we will ever vote Dem in November.
We live in a highly conservative precinct (Eric Cantor is our Congressman). I saw many folks today picking up the Democratic ballot also. I think my wife and I were far from alone in our thinking.
Also, over at a UVa fan website, their political message board had similiar examples:
I decided McCain needs me to vote for Hillary today more than he needs me to ... vote for him.
So I'm holding my nose and doing just that.
Another one had the same reasoning for his Hillary vote:
As Spilt V notes - it was tactical. Obama might not find a way to blow this for ... the dems - Hillary can.
And this poster thinks this voting was widespread:
I know a lot of voters who support McCain who voted on the dem ticket in order ... to either knock out Hillary (since they can't stand her) or try to get her more delegates in their Congressional districts (in order to win her the nomination b/c she would have a harder time defeated McCain than Obama).
Again, no matter who they picked on the Democratic side, they were all anti-Clinton votes. More of that mindset from someone that didn't vote in the Democratic primary:
Actually, if I were to vote in the Democratic primary, I would vote for ...Hillary. This is because I surmise that she would be a train wreck for the Democrats, either when she lost the election or after she won it.
Sometimes you have to gamble big to win big.
Certainly, a substantial amount of the Republicans that voted in the Democratic primary opted for Obama. But they did so because they prefer him as a candidate. Indeed, this appeal to moderate Republicans is what makes Obama such a dangerous opponent for the GOP as a whole.
In contrast, a number of Republicans picked Hillary for a precisely different reason as described above. And each pro-McCain vote that she received inflated her above the real level of support she actually had in Virginia.
So, in the end, there were two prevailing stories about the Republican voters that crossed over yesterday: either support for Obama or a desire to see McCain beat Clinton. Neither is good news for Hillary.
UPDATE: It should be added that it's clear that these examples are merely anecdotes and that this diary is simply speculation regarding the extend of this phenomenon.