Obamanation: Obama-nation: I know we are all really fired up and excited about our candidate's prospects of winning the election after Barack's dominating performance on Super Tuesday and beyond, but this thing is FAR from over.
The next state to head to the polls is Wisconsin. While, I certainly believe that Obama's chances to take that state are above the 50 percent mark, we cannot sit back and expect the Cheeseheads to simply hand us another 60 percent romp.
Take a look at our current polls:
Here are the polls in 3-5 day period prior to Maryland and Virginia last week:
Survey USA 2/9-2/10
Virginia:
Obama 59%
Clinton 39%
Survey USA 2/9-2/10
Maryland:
Obama 55%
Clinton 32%
There are a number of other polls taken from that time, which you can read from the link, that mirror those results.
Now let's take a look at the polls coming out of Wisconsin today and yesterday:
Rasmussen 2/12-2/13
Obama 47%
Clinton 43%
Strategic Vision 2/8-2-10
Obama 44%
Clinton 40%
(In all fairness Vision is a Republican pollster and these results were taken before the Potomac Primary, but I think my point will remain true.)
Clearly Obama does not have the polling numbers in Wisconsin that he did in Maryland and Virginia prior to this contest. These polls indicate that Clinton is still in the game.
But hasn't Clinton all but conceded Wisconsin?
No, don't buy that for a minute. I've seen the Clinton concession argument a million times. It's all strategy, they claim that she pulls out of a state, yet leaves 100 percent of her staff behind to continue to work for her. Don't believe for a minute that she has given up on Wisconsin, especially in light of these poll numbers.
Now, if I can move on to my second point, do not underestimate how important Wisconsin is.
Here are some facts:
Wisconsin's polls close at 8 p.m. (9 p.m. Eastern.)
Hawaii's caucus begins at 7 p.m. (Midnight Eastern)
That means that most Americans will not be awake when Hawaii's numbers come in.
If Hillary manages to win Wisconsin, we will have the rest of the night dedicated to that state and how she is poised to mount a comeback. Just imagine the talking heads on CNN admitting that she was left for dead. Wolf Blitzer's and Anderson Coopers everywhere calling her the "Comeback Kid."
Americans will go to bed under the impression that Hillary's campaign is alive and well and ready to stick it to Obama on March 4th.
All of our hard-earned momentum and success in the month of Feb. could be completely evaporated before Hawaii even decides.
I know Barack Obama has the most dedicated staff and volunteer corps in the game. I know, because I am a three-state volunteer and have worked closely with many of these men and women. There is no doubt in my mind that we will prevail on Feb. 12 in both Wisconsin and Hawaii.
But, if we think for one second that we will be able to do this without the all-out, balls-to-the-wall effort that we've been giving all over this country, well we're dreaming.
So, if you're in Wisconsin, keep up the great work. If you're not in the state, there is always the virtual phone bank.
Let's keep this momentum going folks, the finish line is in sight!
UPDATE: Clinton has not conceded Wisconsin, she'll be there this weekend. The point is that she can play down expectations and talk concession all she wants, but she never truly pulls out of a state. It's all about shaping the message. If she wins, she'll play it off like a huge upset and make it a showing of Obama's weakness.