This is turning out to be a pretty tricky primary for the Democrats. We've got two popular candidates, with neither seeming poised to deliver a unequivocal knockout blow before the convention. We're uncertain about if FLA and MI will count, the significance of the superdelegates, and how we'll decide if it goes untill August. Well, maybe we could take a few tips from the Bowl Championship Series, and bring a little science to this messy, democratic process. Follow my irrefutable mathematical logic below the fold.
- Rankings (R)
To determine the candidates rankings, an average of all polls taken since January 2007 should be taken. The winner of this will be averaged against a poll taken of all pundits and members of the press corps. After these two are averaged, a front-runner will be named.
For the sake of argument, although I haven't run the numbers, lets say that, based on early polling, Clinton outpaces Obama, despite his alleged media support, to grab the #1 ranking.
Winner: Clinton by an edge
- Voter impact (VI)
Next, we will calculate wins and losses in head to head contests. "Strength of Schedule" will be most important here. As has become clear this year, certain states are proportionally more important than others. The equation used will be as follows:
Popular vote percentage (p) + Delegates assigned (d)/ number of states won (s) * number of important states won (is*) = Candidate's score
*Important States:
CA NH
NY MA
TN NJ
FLA IL
MI
This year, the delegates from MI and FLA will not be used in the delegate(d) count, although they will be counted towards the important state (is) total. A fair compromise.
So, to approximate,
Obama- 49.8%(p) * 1139(d) / 23(s) * 1(is) = 2466
Clinton- 50.2(p) * 1003(d) / 11(s) * 8(is) = 36,661
Winner: Clinton by a lot
- Superdelegates (SD)
Now to the ever-contraversial superdelegates. Again, due to relative importance, certain superdelegates are more valuable than others. Nearly all superdelegates get 1 vote, except for ex-presidents. They get one million votes per term served. So, for the sake of argument lets say the super-delegate split is about 50-50, or approximately 200 pts each. Again for the sake of argument, lets say Carter endorses Obama, for one million points. Bill, of course, endorses Hillary, and due to his two terms gets two million points.
Final Superdelegate score: Obama: 1,000,200
Clinton: 2,000,200
Another big win for Hillary
- Final Tally
To determine the final tally, The voter impact(VI) is added to the superdelegate total (SD) and is then divided by the ranking(R).
(VI)+(SD)/(R)= Final Score
In this case:
Obama: 2466(VI)+1,000,200(SD)/2(R)= 501,333
Clinton: 36,661(VI)+2,000,200(SD)/1(R)= 2,072522
As you can see by my calculations, when factored through PEOPLE THAT ACTUALLY MATTER, Clinton enjoys four times the support of Barack Obama.
It's math, people, I don't know why we are even still debating this thing!
If it's good enough for College Football, it's good enough for the Democratic Primary.