Before I get into specifics of how Obama is winning Texas, a word to my fellow Texans
The fact is that Barack is down 8 points in Texas. This means Texans who support Barack Must get to work and get to work immediately. Every Texan who has not yet stepped up should join the campaign today as the national volunteers are loading up our state with Precinct Captains to work their own areas through phonebanking tools, build relationships with neighbors to get votes in the primary and caucus, and work to win on caucus night as well.
There is no reason why Barack can't win the Popular Vote and Delegate Math in Texas. The fact is this is the "Easy" state compared to Ohio, which has such a huge buffer for Clinton.
So lets help make that happen! Go here and sign up! Don't be shy, it's the single most important thing anyone can do this election season as a Texan for Obama:
Lets be clear about this, when Barack wins in Delegates on Primary night, the pressure for Clinton to drop out will be unbearable as the party will view a loss in Texas, the Latino Stronghold, the place she went first after losing in Virginia, as the end of her campaign. Just so you know, the Caucus results won't be reported on March 4th, rather, only the Primary Delegate count will be known. This is why winning delegates on Primary night is Key and the good news is that it's very possible, thanks ironically to Reagan and his Racists buddies long ago. More later...
Now, for the Poll that has me optimistic this morning.
Those who plan on voting early are tilting towards Obama (46% to 42%) while Clinton leads 51% to 40% among voters who are waiting until Election Day to cast their vote.
Clinton's coalition is comprised of Hispanics, women, and strong Democrats, while Obama's support is coming primarily from African Americans, independents, men, and higher income households. Strength groups for each candidate include:
Clinton Obama
Total 49% Total 41%
Hispanics 63% African Americans 65%
Women age 55+ 60% Independents 61%
White women 59% Men w/degree 57%
Voters w/high school or less education 59% Voters $100K+ income 56%
Age 65+ 58% Men 53%
Women 57% Age 18-54 52%
Households <$50K income 57% White men 50% <br>Strong Democrats 54% Voters w/college degree 49%
• Clinton also enjoys majority support in the South (57%) and Western (61%) regions of the state, and edges ahead in the Eastern part of the state 46% to 40%. Obama is beating Clinton 53% to 32% in the Central region and leads 49% to 44% in the Houston area. The Dallas Fort-Worth region is tied within margin of error (Clinton 42%, Obama 41%).
• Among the national issues that are most important to Democratic primary voters Clinton handily wins those concerned with the economy and jobs 54% to 32%, and voters concerned about Iraq 51% to 44%. But among those voters who care most about health care, Obama leads Clinton 53% to 43%.
Burnt Orange Report has Analysis by Region
South (57% Clinton, +1 net Clinton)
In order for Clinton to break any 4 delegate border districts, she needs over 62.5% of the vote. Absent that, all three (or four) of these districts are a wash. Right now, all she'd pick up is the odd 3rd delegate in SD-27 (Lucio).
West (61% Clinton, +3 net Clinton)
-reasons in original
Eastern (46% Clinton-40% Obama, +/- 0 net)
-reasons in original
Central (53% Obama - 32% Clinton, +6 Obama)
The margins here are critical. Looking at these numbers, there is about 15% undecided floating around. If they split evenly along existing proportions, that would put Obama right on the 62.5% line to break 4 delegate districts into 3-1 advantages. Anchored by SD-14 in Austin, Obama can conservatively expect a 5-3 split if he gets over 56.25% and I have no doubt this poll undersamples Obama's college turnout which is highly concentrated here. He'll be able to pick up the odd 3rd delegates in SD-22 & SD-24 with even a simple majority lead. Williamson County north of Austin anchors SD-5 so it's possible Obama could force that 3-1, but I'll leave it tied for now. SD-18 goes east and south so I'm going to leave that 4 delegate district in the split category. SD-25 runs down to San Antonio and has 6 delegates, and the threshold is only 58.3% to break it to 4-2. Keep in mind that an effective college operation at Texas State could help ensure this breaks 4-2 for Obama.
Houston (49% Obama - 44% Clinton, +2 Obama)
Again, if the undecided vote is in the same proportion, Obama would take a 52% simply majority. This is hard to allocate simply because the Houston area is so diverse and the general number is certainly highly weighted by local variances. Four of the six districts here have odd amounts. Based on this, Obama would easily win 4-3 in SD-13 (Ellis who supports Obama) which is African American. He'd need 64% to make this 5-2 and with the support of the district's Senator actively working for him, likely will get there by election day. SD 17 has 5 delegates so as long as Obama leads, he wins the odd delegate. SD's 11 & 15 are both even 4 delegate districts so they are a wash either way if it's close. SD-6 (Gallegos) is a 3 delegate district but Hispanic, so we'll assume this is Clinton's support in the Houston sample and break it 2-1 for her. SD-7 (Patrick) is Anglo so it's 2-1 Obama if he has 1 more vote than Clinton.
Dallas/Ft. Worth (42% Clinton - 41% Obama, +2 Obama )
There are 26 delegates at stake here. Problem is, 18 of them are in even numbered districts, three of which are going to split 2-2. The one that is 6 delegates is SD-23 (West who supports Obama) which is the African American district. Obama needs only 58% to make that a 4-2 split and given the size of the metro area, I'm reasonably confident in asserting that portion of this area's sample includes enough support from SD-23 to do that. That leaves SD-10 (Brimer) and SD-9 (Harris) to whomever wins the simple majority. Obama could do well in SD-9 which include the mid-cities and home to lots of independents but I don't feel comfortable assigning either of these. So lets just assume they break 2-1 for either candidate an cancel each other out for now.
Total (49% Clinton - 41% Obama, +6 net Obama delegates!)
The Cities are the Key and the fact is the racist republican jerrymandering from the 1980's of the Senate Districts in Texas make Texas a state Obama can win on Delegates yet lose in popular vote.
While drawing district lines in such a way that ensured victory for a Republican state senator, the Republicans also made sure that the Democrats in each new district were divided between moderate whites and/or African-American Hispanic minorities. The thinking was that these competing Democratic constituencies would cancel each other out--and that is exactly what is likely to happen come March 4th, because by putting a bit of black in as many state senate districts as possible, the Republicans have blunted the chances for Hillary Clinton to take a majority in districts that have 4 delegates to offer. Most of the 31 state senate districts that will determine the Texas primary deliver 4 delegates. Therefore, Hillary Clinton will be hard-pressed to find a way to a clear-cut victory in Texas.
This gerrymandering of Houston/Harris County must be seen to be believed. (There is no direct link, but a click on the map icon at the bottom of each state senator's page brings up the map. See districts 6, 7, 11, 13, 15 and 17.) Because the state Republicans back in '92 knew that they couldn't get away with completely disenfranchising minorities, District 13 was drawn to be largely African-American and therefore produce an African-American state senator--currently Rodney Ellis, who has endorsed Obama. In 2006, District 13, the second largest in the state, held well over half of Houston/Harris County Democrats and therefore has 7 delegates to award on March 4th. Not surprisingly, District 13 is base camp for Obama forces here in Houston.
District 13, District 14 and District 23 are strongholds in delegate rich areas that can help Obama carry Texas. Via the analysis I highly urge you to read:
By playing offense in the valley to turn many of the 4 Delegate districts in the south 2-2 if he holds Hillary under 62.5%, while simultaneously trying to run up the score in 13, 14, and 23, Obama can and will win the state on delegates by a handful if not a dozen.
The Pundits will be shocked... but the blame actually lies with the system Republicans created here to disenfranchise Democrats long ago, and that system, the way it's drawn, helps Obama. Delegates are all that matters, and Obama will win on Delegates the night of March 4th, even before we add the Caucus tally to the final score.
If you're in Texas, make this happen, Sign Up Today.
Barack thanks ya kindly for a Rec' so every good Texan can understand the importance of our beautiful state and their own contribution.
UPDATED MORE POLLS
Thanks newman left of right
Rasmussen Clinton 54, Obama 38 Clinton +16
InsiderAdvantage Clinton 48, Obama 41 Clinton +7
TCUL/Hamilton Clinton 49, Obama 41 Clinton +8
ARG Clinton 42, Obama 48 Obama +6
That's Hillary +6... roughly, definitely not enough to win the math of the primary and caucus as it is drawn. Before Clinton Folks start spouting hypocrisy, know Obama will do all he can as will every Precinct Captain, to win the Total Popular Vote!
From the Chronicle
Should a senatorial district that is three-quarters Democrat get the same number of delegates as a district that is only one-quarter Democrat? Party rules quite reasonably say no. That would make each primary vote in the heavily Democratic district worth only a third as much as a vote in a heavily Republican district.
So, the number of delegates awarded to each district is determined by the number of votes cast in that district for governor in 2006 and president in 2004.
Simply put, Hispanics, who historically vote in smaller percentages than African-Americans, did not turn out for either John Kerry in 2004 or Chris Bell in 2006.
Texas party rules are at play here. The Texas Democratic party uses past performance to provide for future delegate totals. This is not unfair, it is not disenfranchisement. It is simply the reality of the landscape in Texas, and unless Hillary cuts into Obama's lead amongst African Americans, it's a reality she won't be able to stop.
One last thought. People discuss momentum. If Obama does what's most likely, Tie in Pop Vote (within 2%) and win in Delegates in Texas by 10 or so, tie in Ohio, and carry the Texas Caucus again, with victories coming in Mississippi and Wyoming one week later, what purpose would there be for Hillary Clinton to keep on keepin on until the convention other than to deny the will of the people as a whole? It's a game about delegates and the truth is Barack Obama will close the leads in Texas and Ohio, placing the delegate race at an uncatchable distance, and force the larger party as a whole to end this by having the Super Delegates come out en-mass before Pennsylvania even matters to wrap this up and solidfy the party with McCain as an opponent.
Hillary needs to blow Barack out, not in just raw vote, but in Delegates. It's her campaign afterall that supports the Delegates Matter meme.