Now that we have the exciting title out of the way, safety the snark for a bit: I'd like to discuss the flap over Obama's alleged "plagiarism" and what we can look forward to after Obama gets the Democratic nod.
I think we may have just dodged a bit of a bullet.
Follow me through the FutureSmear Looking Glass.
Overview
Like just about everyone in the liberal blogosphere, I'm sure, and quite a few in the real world, I heard about this little flap several days ago, noticing that it was making the morning news here in the DC area on WTOP. I didn't care much at the time, writing it off to Clinton campaign desperation; it was only this morning, when it made the news again that I began to be a little concerned, thinking it might have some legs.
Needless to say, the scandalism found its wings today, with Clinton campaign surrogate Howard Wolfson making the rounds, attacking Obama on the strawmen they've cultivated about Obama "running on the strength of his rhetoric", etc.
And, of course, late this afternoon, Jake Tapper dutifully tried to extend the smear, quoting Obama as having "lifted" another of Deval Patrick's lines without attribution (a month before he quoted the line with attribution).
Why this is important
Those of you who missed Jeff Feldman's well-commented diary today should go back and read it; Jeff argues with his usual eloquence and insight why this is an issue at all.
To Jeff's argument, I'd add this: the "plagiarism" smear potentially sets Obama up in a similar fashion Gore suffered in the 2000 election. In that race, the attacks on Gore put him in a position that any misstatement instantly became confirmation that he was untruthful. Finding evidence that Gore was a "serial exaggerator" became great sport, and it put Gore into an impossible position of having to never make mistakes.
This smear against Obama puts him in danger of a similar situation: you can bet that future speeches will be examined in minute detail to find examples of unoriginal thinking.
Where we go from here
First of all, Obama has one advantage Gore didn't: software can detect potential plagiarism, and the Obama campaign might want to run any future speeches through such software, in the interest of avoiding false positives. You can bet the media, and the McCain campaign, will do the same thing to Obama's speeches.
Of course, off-the-cuff remarks are another story, and unfortunately, Obama may have to watch his step.
On the other hand...as "plagiarism" goes, these accusations are pretty silly. There is real potential that this could actually rebound to Obama's advantage -- provided nothing much more serious is uncovered.
Why this might be a good thing
No, not the "plagiarism" accusations themselves, though an argument can be made for that, too, and I'll discuss it in a second. I'm talking about the timing. I believe it's possible the GOP had this material, too. By a lucky confluence of events (the Clinton campaign using this during the primaries, the GOP not realizing Obama would likely take the nomination), this particular explosion went off prematurely.
This isn't to say Clinton making hay out of this is just kosher; what I'm saying is that they may have inadvertently helped to rob this smear of its real potential. This isn't October, 2008. There's plenty of time to deal with any problems this causes.
"Humanizing" Obama
A case can be made that the accusations themselves will actually work out to Obama's benefit. I see this potential for several reasons:
- Obama is largely an unknown, new quantity. This incident helps to show he's not perfect, and isn't trying to make himself out as perfect.
- It's extremely minor, as far as "plagiarism" is concerned; in fact, it would be difficult to make an actual case of plagiarism in the "real world" (away from campaign rhetoric). The minor nature of the infraction will likely leave people who hear the details with a "that's all?" reaction. Again, this will reinforce reason #1.
- Clinton has done this, too, and indeed, McCain probably has as well. Indeed, I think you'd be very hard pressed to find any candidate for public office who isn't just as "guilty" as Obama.
- Obama's about to have a good night. Further, he'll probably have more of them. This will help to blunt the edge of this "scandal".
Conclusions
"Authentigate" still has the potential to do damage to Obama, and/or put him in a bit of a bind for the general election campaign. As with all things, much depends upon how he, his campaign and his supporters respond, and whether other incidents happen that serve to reinforce a negative image. Obama has run an extremely good campaign thus far, and I hope that trend continues.