Someday the pain of this Primary Season will end and we’ll have a Nominee.
Some will be pleased. Others disappointed.
Many are already disappointed that their choice has left the race.
Once, I was optimistic that a strong unified Democratic Party would win big—across the board—come November.
Now, I have my doubts. Last week, I wrote about them (A rough three weeks and it is getting worse). Since then, a few things have changed. I’m a little more hopeful, but that hope is tempered with caution.
I support Barack Obama. I’m working very hard to see that he is our nominee.
Others support Senator Clinton and are working to see that she is the one.
The race is close and anything is possible. We’ll know more next Wednesday.
The Democratic race has been tough and harsh. There are raw feelings and open wounds in every camp.
It was ugly stuff, but nothing compared to what is around the corner.
Half a billion dollars is waiting to demonize our Nominee.
Get ready and jump...
Our Democratic Primary is hot, passionate and exciting.
It may not end until April or even the Convention.
A year ago, I was at peace about the Democrats running for President. I thought they were all fine and that I could live with any of them.
Now, that has changed.
I passionately feel that Barack Obama is the best choice for our Party and our Nation.
A year ago, I thought that I would "sit out" the Presidential Primary and spend all my energy working to elect Democrats to the House and Senate this fall, just as I did in 2005-2006.
I have surprised myself.
I have been side-tracked by the primary. I suspect that others have been as well.
I’ve become passionate in my support of Obama, just as others are passionate of their support of Senator Clinton (and/or were passionate in their support of Edwards, Richardson, Kucinich, Dodd and Biden).
Among those of us who have been pulled into caring about this or that candidate, we notice the attacks, the slights, the digs, the "dog whistle" appeals to division and we stand ready to defend our guy or gal.
The tone has gotten harsh.
Many will tell you that they will not be able to vote for the Democratic Nominee in November if it is Hillary Clinton. Others tell us they will have the same problem if it is Barack Obama.
I suspect that many of the declarations will soften come November, but I also know that these feelings are very real.
I feel the pull myself, but I am working to keep my eyes on the prize.
On the eve of the South Carolina Primary, I wrote:
I have major doubts about Senator Clinton, and yet, I am sure that if she is the nominee that I will mark an "X" for her in November. I used to think I could do more, but now just voting for her seems like a moral compromise—a dirty task that tactically must be done.
For me it would be a purely tactical vote. It would be about the thousands of Democrats that any Democratic President would bring into the bureaucracy and appointments any Democrat would make to the Courts. On the basis of these tactical points, I feel that one has an almost moral obligation to vote for the Democrat.
This would be true of Senator Clinton, but it would also be true if our Nominee was Joe Lieberman or even Zell Miller. And to me there is very little difference between them and Senator Clinton right now. All three have placed their own pursuit of power above the needs of unity, the Party and America. All three have consciously chosen division over unity and fear over hope. Yeah, I could tactically vote for such a Democrat, but I do not have to like it.
Now, my most significant problem with Senator Clinton is her connections to Jack Abramoff through his sweatshop owning patrons. If I found a Republican with $10,000 of cash from the Tan Family of Hong Kong they might top the list of Abramoff tainted candidates in any election year. (And the only person with more donations directly from Tan Family members than Senator Clinton is George W. Bush—and that is very disturbing). Her refusal to divest herself of this tainted cash is a problem for me. As I’ve said before, I know others do not care, but I do.
I have been fighting the abuse of the Tan Family for ten years. To support any candidate who has taken their money seems like a betrayal to the many victims of the Tan Family’s greed, abuse and culture of corruption. Senator Clinton as my party’s nominee places me in a moral bind.
And yet, the absolute moral twilight of any Republican in the race overshadows my problem with her.
So if she is the nominee, I will vote for her, even with my very serious concerns. I expect that if I can make this leap, many others who are extremely troubled by her will be able to do so as well.
I expect we will be able to mark an "X" in November, but anything else is going to be a stretch.
Yes, I know that the stakes are high and we must UNITE behind whoever wins the Democratic Nomination, but it is naïve to imagine that "fear" of Republicans is all we will need to fall in line.
It isn’t.
It is going to take some work to unite the party and I hope our Nominee and his or her supporters will be willing to do that work.
I’m certain that Senator Clinton will have a harder time uniting the Party than Senator Obama, but I hope we never have to find out just how hard a time she will have.
I hope that Obama wins, but we will see what happens.
Either way, once we have a Nominee, the real battle will just be beginning.
Once we choose our Nominee the Republicans will hit them with a wave after wave of lies, attacks and dirty tricks. The audacity and mendacity of their attacks will take our collective breath away.
And it will be a very well funded attack.
All that Republican cash NOT going to their lame candidates is finding a home with an army of attack 527s.
Take Ari Fleischer’s 527, Freedom’s Watch as an example. They will have over $250,000,000 waiting to attack our Nominee. That’s a quarter of a billion dollars from just one group. And many other right wing groups raising money and getting ready.
It will be at least a half billion dollars waiting to demonize our Nominee—perhaps more.
Thiss is why Karl Rove is so confident in his new Newsweek column (emphasis added):
Just a month has passed since voting began, and nine months remain before November. Let's see what happens to Republican bank accounts as the year goes on.
Maybe we are not seeing the crackup of the GOP. Rather, America is more likely to be at the start of an intense and exciting election. The contest will be hard fought, the actions of the candidates each day hugely significant. It's far too early to draw sweeping conclusions about the health of either party; the presidential race, after all, has barely begun. Lots of surprises lie ahead.
I am certain that Karl and his fellow weasels have many "surprises" in the works.
So yes, the Democratic Primary has been rough. It has opened wounds. Emotions are raw and many swear that they could never support _________ if he or she were to win. There were blatant appeals to race-baiting. There were harsh words. Hard hitting mailers. Robocalls. Many have cried "foul".
We haven’t seen anything yet.
If Senator Clinton is our Nominee, they have been preparing to run against her for over eight years. Entire industries have been built to take her down. Some people have been at it so long that they should be ready for their twenty year retirement soon. They have been planning this run against her for a very long time and it will be an intensely dirty campaign. Old issues and lines of attack will be resurrected and new ones will be revealed.
A Clinton race will be fought n a vote range of 48% to 52%. The Republican base will be energized and the Red State/Blue State dynamic will be central to the campaign. Democrats in Red States will be on their own as all of our resources go to the Presidential race. We’ve seen this before and with Senator Clinton we will live it again.
We might win, but we might not. It will be close.
Obama would be a different story. They were not ready for him, but they will get into gear quickly
The lines of attack will come and they will be just as harsh as those aimed at any Democrat running for President by the weasels of the Right. The appeals to racism, fear and division will be fueled by half a billion dollars of attack money. It will be ugly and it will make anything in the Democratic Primary seem "nice". Some attacks might stick and then again they might fail.
Obama could rise above it and lead us to a major victory across 50 states—and I think he will. He could win with more than 60% of the vote and have coattails that bring new Democrats into office across fifty states. On the other hand, all the attacks of the Right could stick. Five hundred years of American racism could manifest itself at the ballot box once again and Obama could lose—and lose badly.
With $500,000,000 of attack money waiting in the wings, either candidate carries real risks as our Nominee. Victory will take unity and hard work.
Obama is playing for the big win and Clinton is playing for inches.
Either way, the Republican attack machine is in the wings ready to destroy our Nominee and our Party.
We need to get ready, as it is going to get worse. Much worse.
We are in a battle for our Party’s nominee. It is a hard fought contest.
When it ends, the real fight will begin and make no mistake—it is going be a very ugly campaign.
Get ready.
Prepare to make peace with the Nominee and his or her supporters.
For reasons I have detailed many times, I will find it hard to do more than vote for Senator Clinton in November.
And yet, when I contemplate the intense evil enabled and protected by the modern Republican Party, I find myself ready to work for any Democrat—however flawed—who stands a chance of defeating the Republicans and stopping the damage.
Things are going to get worse, but the only way to improve them is to elect a Democrat as President in November and build a progressive majority in the Senate and the House.
Obama can get us there.
Clinton can take us a step in the right direction.
Either way, we need to get ready to unite.
The stakes are high and we must win.
It will not be easy.
It will get worse.
Get ready.
Cheers.