I know we are all focused on the Presidential race. However, we can all agree that strong performance in the House races will be key to electing a Democratic President and maintaining a strong Democratic majority going forward. The Democrats have the majority in the House and are likely to keep it. However, with so many freshman Democrats, the Republicans are aiming to get back some of what they lost in 2006. Still, the Republicans are the ones who likely will lose seats. Over 25 GOP seats are now open seats, and another GOP rep seems to retire every couple weeks. Far fewer Democratic seats are open.
Below is an overview of some key seats of contention in 2008. The Democrats have 27 seats that may be vulnerable, with 16 seats that are clearly vulnerable, while the Republicans appear to have 49 seats that may be vulnerable, with 23 that are clearly vulnerable.
Below the flip is a list of key races in 2008.
Highly Vulnerable Republicans (10)
Arizona 01 (Open Seat) – Rick Renzi’s retirement opens up this seat, Arizona’s largest geographically, which hosted a worthwhile challenge by Ellen Simon in 2006 against the incumbent Republican. Renzi’s indictment makes it even tougher for the Republican candidate, who’ll have to distance himself or herself from Renzi.
Florida 13 (Buchanan) – Democrat Christine Jennings may have actually won in 2006, but Buchanan was the one who moved to Washington. Maybe this time, all votes WILL be counted in this coastal district in West Florida.
Michigan 07 (Walberg) – As a freshman Republican already having trouble with the press in his district, Walberg will likely face a much stronger, and well-financed Democratic challenger in 2008.
Nevada 03 (Porter) – Every two years this Southern Nevada district seems to have more Democrats move into town. Porter barely won last time, and has to convince a new round of voters that he is their best representative.
New Jersey 03 (Open Seat) – While not the closest race in 2006, this remains a Democratic-leaning district. Saxton’s retirement provides a great opportunity for Democrat pick up.
New Jersey 07 (Open Seat) – Ferguson barely won re-election in 2006, and with his retirement, this seat is wide open for the Democrats to take it over.
New Mexico 01 (Open Seat) – With Heather Wilson running for Senate after a slim victory in 2006, the Democrats now have an even better shot at taking this swing district.
Ohio 15 (Open Seat) – Pryce eked out a 1,000 vote victory in 2006 and her retirement leaves the GOP in hot water to defend this seat.
Ohio 16 (Open Seat) – Due to the retirement of Ralph Regula, this seat will be an open race for the first time in over three decades. Early signs indicate that this race is a strong target for the Democrats. Sate Senator and Air Force Reserve Major John Boccieri has emerged thus far as the leading Democrat.
Virginia 11 (Open Seat) – Tom Davis’ retirement opens the door for the Democratic takeover we have all been waiting for in Fairfax and throughout the DC suburbs that make up Virginia’s 11th district. Tim Kaine won big here in 2005, and Jim Webb won big here in 2006.
Vulnerable Republicans (13)
Alaska at large (Young) – Don Young has represented Alaska for a long time, and as such he appears to have been corrupted by it. He likely faces a strong primary challenge. That leaves an opening for Ethan Berkowitz, former leader of the Democrats in the Alaska legislature and from personal experience he is an all-around nice guy. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich may run for Senate, but if he instead runs for Congress, he may also bring the Democrats a victory.
California 04 (Open Seat) – With an ongoing FBI investigation of he and his wife, John Doolittle retired, fearing a loss in this heavily Republican District in California’s Northeastern corner. Challenger Charlie Brown got close in 2006, and may still have a shot if the Republicans aren’t able to stray from Doolittle’s ethical issues.
Connecticut 04 (Shays) – Shays has threatened to retire if not given a ranking committee assignment. If he leaves, this Democratic-leaning seat could be an easy pick up. However, even if he stays, this seat cannot be ruled out because he has only won by two or three points in each of the last two elections.
Illinois 11 (Open Seat) – Weller managed a 10 point victory in 2006, but his retirement opens up this key swing district.
Minnesota 03 (Open Seat) – With the retirement of popular GOP incumbent Jim Ramstad, this swing district in the Minneapolis suburbs becomes a potential pick up for the Democrats.
New York 25 (Open Seat) – This was a tight race in 2006 in this Democratic-leaning district, and with Walsh retiring at the end of his term it is likely to be tight in 2008 as well.
New York 29 (Kuhl) – Kuhl has had close races in the last two elections. There is no reason to expect anything different this time, even in the rural southwest corner of New York State.
North Carolina 08 (Hayes) – Hayes struggled to keep his seat east of Charlotte, winning by only a few hundred votes against a relatively unknown challenger in 2006, Larry Kissell, who plans to run again in 2008.
Ohio 01 (Chabot) – Chabot’s 6-point victory in 2006 shows that beating him will be tough in this district in Ohio’s southwestern corner, but he may face a much stronger challenger in minority whip of the Ohio state House, Steve Driehaus, if he runs.
Ohio 02 (Schmidt) – Schmidt might not make it out of the primary, but if she does, she will face another tough challenge in 2008. Where is Paul Hackett when we need him?
Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach) – Gerlach pulled out tight victories the last two elections, and will have to face another tight contest this time.
Virginia 02 (Drake) – Despite losing in the polls with only a few weeks remaining until election day, Drake was able to keep her seat in southeastern Virginia by pulling out a decades old scandal on Democratic challenger Phil Kellam. Now the Democrats have a new candidate who may be formidable in former diplomat, Glenn Nye.
Washington 08 (Reichert) – A tight race in 2006 is likely to be tight in 2008 in this Democratic-leaning district in suburban Seattle.
Slightly Vulnerable Republicans (26)
Arizona 03 (Shadegg) – Shadegg retired, then unretired and decided to fight on. This race remains compelling, although this district north of Phoenix remains strongly conservative.
Colorado 04 (Musgrave) – Musgrave pulled out a 3-point victory in 2006 and this seat remains up for grabs in a district covering Eastern Colorado and Fort Collins.
Colorado 06 (Open Seat) – Not only will there be no "President Tancredo" on the ballot, there is no longer a "Congressman Tancredo" on the ballot. The Democrats may have an opportunity in this conservative-leaning district between Denver and Colorado Springs.
Florida 08 (Keller) – This seat was more competitive in 2006 than many expected, and despite being in Central Florida, has a Cook rating of R+3.
Florida 24 (Feeney) – As an ethically challenged Republican, he may be a target in 2008. He received 58% of the vote in 2006, in a race that was pretty much ignored in Florida’s eastern coast.
Idaho 01 (Sali) – Sali angered a lot of Republicans in his time in the Idaho legislature, but still won this seat by 5 points despite GOP defects in the State Party. Given his knack for saying the wrong thing, Sali could easily slip up and give the Democrats another shot.
Illinois 06 (Roskam) – Roskam has apparently scored points with constituents making this seat a difficult one for the Democrats. However, given his close victory last time, the Democrats still have a chance in the suburbs west of Chicago.
Illinois 10 (Kirk) – Moderate Republican Mark Kirk survived in this Democratic majority district in 2006 in suburban Chicago, but he remains vulnerable in 2008.
Illinois 14 (Open Seat) – Hastert’s retirement opens up this seat in northern Illinois for which the former Speaker of the House faced a spirited challenge in 2006.
Indiana 03 (Souder) – Souder faced a strong challenge out of nowhere in 2006.
Kentucky 02 (Open Seat) – In 2006, this was expected to be a close race, but Congressman Ron Lewis was able to win by ten. He decided to retire before the filing deadline leaving this seat open, and a potential pick up for Democrats, who except to bring a strong challenger for this seat.
Kentucky 04 (Davis) – Davis’ strong defense of his seat in 2006 makes him less vulnerable in 2008
Michigan 09 (Knollenberg) – Knollenberg’s 6-point victory should be enough to convince Democrats to spend some real money in this district in 2008.
Michigan 11 (McCotter) – Despite a strong victory 11-point victory in 2006, McCotter remains a potential target. Not to give him advice, but Thaddeus would be wise not to call people "the devil" just because they disagree with his vote against SCHIPP.
Minnesota 06 (Bachmann) – Bachmann’s strong victory in 2006 may scare off some Democrats, but her far right conservatism may also scare off some voters.
Missouri 09 (Open Seat) – Another open seat has been created by Kenny Hulshof running for Governor, this district may have some potential with a strong Democratic State Rep already in the race.
New Mexico 02 (Open Seat) – The Democrats didn’t mount much of an effort here in 2006, but with Pearce running for Senate against Heather Wilson, he adds another open GOP seat in New Mexico.
Nevada 02 (Heller) – Heller’s 6 point victory was strong, but it does not change the fact that growth in Northern Nevada will keep this a swing seat in 2008.
New York 26 (Reynolds) – While the Foley issue lingered in the last weeks of the 2006 campaign, it is hard to believe that was the only reason this race was so close.
Ohio 07 (Open Seat) – Despite an easy GOP victory in 2006, the retirement of Dave Hobson leaves this seat open to potential Democratic takeover in this south central Ohio district.
Ohio 14 (LaTourette) – LaTourette won with 58% of the vote in 2006 in this district covering Ohio’s northeastern corner, yet this is still a swing district for 2008. Cook rating is R+2.
Pennsylvania 15 (Dent) – Dent faced a decent challenge in 2006 from out of nowhere, and if the Democrats make an effort this time, they may have a chance.
Pennsylvania 18 (Murphy) – Murphy has some ethical challenges, but pulled off a 16 point victory in 2006 in this swing district.
Virginia 10 (Wolf) – Despite a strong victory in 2006, Wolf faces a district in Northern Virginia that is trending more and more Democratic.
Washington 05 (McMorris) – McMorris fought off a potentially tough challenge from an under-funded Democratic challenger in 2006. However, if the Democrats make a serious run this time, she could be in trouble.
Wyoming at-large (Open Seat) – The Republicans are clearly better off without Barbara Cubin running, since she only won by 1,000 votes in 2006 in this very conservative state. However, Gary Trauner ran a strong campaign in 2006, and could still be a tough challenge for whoever the Republican is that runs for this seat.
Highly Vulnerable Democrats (9)
Florida 16 (Mahoney) – This is probably the 2nd most vulnerable Democrat to Lampson given that he barely won last time, despite Mark Foley remaining on the ballot and his real challenger having little time to gain any ground.
Georgia 08 (Marshall) – Jim Marshall faced a tough contest in this conservative district in 2006. He will face an even tougher challenge in 2008.
Georgia 12 (Barrow) – Barrow remains a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, who may have kept his seat only due to the Democratic wave.
Kansas 02 (Boyda) – Was this victory a fling for moderate-conservative voters, or will it be a lasting relationship?
New Hampshire 01 (Shea-Porter) – Shea-Porter pulled off a surprising victory in 2006 against heavily favored Jeb Bradley. If he wins the primary, Bradley will likely challenge her again to get his seat back.
Ohio 18 (Space) – With Bob Ney long gone, and with the GOP having time to find a decent candidate, Space’s good fortune is gone in this conservative-leaning district east of Columbus.
Oregon 05 (Open Seat) – Darlene Hooley’s retirements opens up this seat for the Republicans. This seat covers the relatively-conservative state capital of Salem and Hooley won over 55% of the vote only once. Democrats will need a strong candidate to keep this seat.
Pennsylvania 10 (Carney) – Chris Carney doesn’t have the luxury of running against a man embroiled in a sex scandal involving choking. This seat in Pennsylvania’s northeastern corner is strong Republican-leaning.
Texas 22 (Lampson) – Lampson had a lot on his side in 2006 in Tom Delay’s old seat south of Houston. Now he faces a real challenge. This would be a great victory if the Democrats can somehow hang on here.
Vulnerable Democrats (7)
California 11 (McNerney) – Pombo’s defeat in 2006 appeared to be a great step for this district, but its conservative voters may still change their minds. McNerney’s best hope is that his strong clean energy stance will help validate him with the high costs of oil.
Illinois 08 (Bean) – Melissa Bean survived a strong challenge in 2006 due to the Democratic wave, but she will have her work cut out for her to retain her seat again.
Indiana 09 (Hill) – former and current Congressman Baron Hill won back his seat in 2006, but it was the closest Democratic victory of the Indiana Three.
Kentucky 03 (Yarmuth) – This may be a rematch with Anne Northrup, the former Congresswoman he defeated in 2006. Although he defeated her soundly in 2006, that doesn’t mean facing this well-known candidate is easy.
Pennsylvania 04 (Altmire) – As a freshman, Altmire is likely to face a tough challenge for re-election to a second term in this swing district northwest of Pittsburgh.
New York 20 (Gillibrand) – In conversation with a reliable source in the summer of 2006, I was told that Sweeney was in real trouble. Few believed my source was accurate, but alas they were wrong. Gillibrand looks to be in good shape for now, but may still face some decent opposition in 2008.
Wisconsin 08 (Kagen) – Kagen is a freshman Democrat in a Republican-leaning district in northeastern Wisconsin.
Slightly Vulnerable Democrats (11)
Arizona 05 (Mitchell) – While his victory was strong in 2006, the GOP could still mount a strong candidate in 2008 against Mitchell, in what remains a swing district in the Phoenix suburbs.
Arizona 08 (Giffords) – While Giffords had a strong victory in 2006, immigration remains a key issue here that could keep her vulnerable in this border district in Southeast Arizona.
Connecticut 02 (Courtney) – Courtney won by the slimmest of margins in 06, but given the voters in the district, he probably won’t have as much trouble this time
Indiana 02 (Donnelly) – While his 8-point victory was impressive, it isn’t enough to keep the GOP from mounting a serious challenge in 2008.
Indiana 07 (Open Seat) – The death of Julia Carson leaves an intriguing opening for the Republicans in Indianapolis. This district could be heavily influenced by who are chosen as the Presidential candidates. It is hard to say how this will race play out until later in the campaign season.
Minnesota 01 (Walz) – Walz pulled out a surprising victory in 2006, but will likely face tough opposition
New York 19 (Hall) – Perhaps catapulted by his appearance on the Colbert Report, Hall’s surprise victory in 2006 had many in the GOP scratching their heads. He may be able to skirt trouble in 2008 if the GOP can’t get it together to mount a decent challenge in this district.
New York 24 (Arcuri) – I hesitate to say this is vulnerable at all, but the GOP screwed up big time with their phone sex ad in 2006, and maybe if they learn from their mistake they may actually mount a challenge against the freshman incumbent.
North Carolina 11 (Shuler) – Shuler won a large victory in 2006, but still may face a strong challenge in 2008 in what remains a conservative district.
Pennsylvania 11 (Kanjorski) – While not competitive in the last few elections, the decision by Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta to run for this seat may result in a close race.
Texas 23 (Rodriguez) – Democrats had to wait until December before Ciro Rodriguez could claim victory in this recently rearranged district in West Texas. He is likely to defend his seat, but remains somewhat vulnerable.
Key campaign resources
Cook Political Report
Politics1
Electoral Vote.com
Notes on the House races