I think [McCain is] the strongest Republican candidate. I am strongly for Mitt Romney, I'd like to join with Mary [Matalin] in hoping he pulls a big upset on Tuesday because I don't want to run against McCain.
Bob Shrum
Meet the Press
One hour ago
About six months ago, John McCain's presidential ambitions appeared to be dead. He had no money (he still doesn't), and his support hovered in the single digits.
Rudolph Giuliani, with Fox News and the powerful anti-ferret lobby backing his campaign, was well positioned to secure the Republican nomination.
Bloggers and pundits alike performed post-mortems on McCain's failed bid before a single primary vote had been cast. Reports of McCain's demise, however, were greatly exagerated.
As the primary season progressed, the famously lock-step Republican base failed to coalesce around a single candidate. Giuliani, for all his strength in the national polls and among the easily impressed chattering classes, couldn't seem to get any actual voters to support him. Romney and Huckabee, despite each winning at least one primary, both lacked the ability to capitolize on their victories.
Into the breach shuffled John McCain, who after winning New Hampshire excorcised his electoral demons from 2000 and won South Carolina. He built off his momentum with a win in Florida and is now poised to win the Republican nomination for President.
McCain has always been seen as the one Republican who could effectively challenge a strong Democratic field in November. His (albeit phony) reputation for maverickism and straight talk, and his popularity with Independents and voters in general has always been described as electoral doom for Democrats. He's a war hero with the reputation for honesty who is lionized by sycohantic members of the media and is most often protrayed as a formidable general election candidate.
However, I believe John McCain will turn out to be a very weak opponent who will be beat handily November regardless of the Democratic nominee.
Below I'll lay out the reasons why I think this is so, and in the process try to cheer up Democrats, like poor Bob Shrum, who fear the power of John McCain.
If you'll bear with me, I'll borrow a page from the Republican playbook here. Anyone who has studied McCain's career will be aware that the man is a political chameleon who has held just about every position under the sun. This constant, and documented, shifting on a host of hot-button issues has left McCain open to charges of being....a flip-flopper.
I know, I know. Calling anyone a flip-flopper is both juvenile and stupid, but hell, elections are juvenile and stupid so let's run with it!
The "flip-flopper" frame, along with scurrilous rumors spread by these assholes (and their allies in the conservative and traditional media), is widely credited with sinking John Kerry's 2004 campaign.
Remember this little gem?
Well I doubt the DNC has any stock footage of McCain windsurfing, but he's nonetheless extremely vulnerable to the same line of attack that Kerry was.
John Kerry was only really accused of "flip-flopping" on support/funding for the war, and it still wound up hurting him tremendously. McCain, on the other hand, has blatantly changed his position on not just one, but at least four major issues:
- The Religious Right
- The Bush Tax Cuts
- Roe vs. Wade
- The War
His blatant reverses on these issues over the past several years will provide ample opportunity for the Democratic Party to completely destroy his credibility over the coming months if they are smart and competent enough to seize the opportunity (come on, just stop laughing and read on okay?)
Let's go through these one by one (Attention: copious links, pictures, and blockquotes ahead. Oh my!)
THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT
I am a pro-life pro-family fiscal conservative, an advocate of a strong defense, and yet Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell and a few Washington leaders of the pro-life movement call me an unacceptable presidential candidate. They distort my pro- life positions and smear the reputations of my supporters.
Why? Because I don't pander to them, because I don't ascribe to their failed philosophy that money is our message.
we embrace the fine members of the religious conservative community, but that does not mean that we will pander to their self-appointed leaders.
Nooooooooo. John McCain would never pander to agents of intolerance, especially not for sometihng as trivial and petty as winning an election. Would he?
RUSSERT: Do you believe Jerry Falwell is still an 'agent of intolerance'? (5/12/2006, CNN The Situation Room)
MCCAIN: No I don't. (5/12/2006, CNN The Situation Room)
(Pictured above, the principled Senator from Arizona definitely not pandering to an agent of intolerance)
I guess Pat and Jer' might have secretely renounced their belief that homosexuality is a grave sin, that abortion is murder, that "teh gays" caused 9-11, that men should be masters over their wives, and that America was founded as a Christian nation (thus no longer being Agents of intolerance)and only told John McCain.
Yeah.
THE BUSH TAX CUTS
I cannot in good conscience support a tax cut in which so many of the benefits go to the most fortunate among us at the expense of middle-class Americans who need tax relief."--John McCain, May 2001
That was the good Senator in 2001, while he was still in the midst of his full blown conservative apostasy. Respect for economic equality and advocacy and support for the middle class over monied interests? What was he thinking? Maybe he was angry at Bush for his dirty campaign in South Carolina. Maybe he actually believed he was doing the right thing. Ahem.
Who knows?
Whatever the reason, McCain would eventually see the light on tax cuts, coming around to support them (maybe because they out the country on such sound fiscal footing!). To justify this flip-flop, McCain stated that his initial opposition to the cuts was due to a lack of corresponding spending cuts.
In a presidential debate on Wednesday, McCain said he voted against the Bush tax cuts because he wanted to rein in spending.
"I disagreed when we had tax cuts without spending restraint," the Arizona senator said.
The explanation fits with his history of railing against wasteful federal spending. But it does not fit with McCain's comments when he opposed the Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003.
In 2003, McCain opposed a $350 billion tax cut sought by Bush, this time arguing there should be no tax relief while the cost of the Iraq war and its aftermath were still unknown.
"The tax cut is not appropriate until we find out the cost of the war and the cost of reconstruction," McCain said then.
So McCain changes his position on tax cuts in anticipation of a Presidential run, and lies abot his reasons for doing so. The Straight Talk Express has clearly pulled out of the station.
Moving on....
ROE VS. WADE
There was a time when McCain thought he could win the Presidency on the backs of Independents and moderate Republicans (he didn't yet realize that there are no moderate Republicans, silly man), and he felt free to say things like this:
"I'd love to see a point where it is irrelevant, and could be repealed because abortion is no longer necessary," McCain told the Chronicle in an article published Friday. "But certainly in the short term, or even the long term, I would not support repeal of Roe v. Wade, which would then force X number of women in America to [undergo] illegal and dangerous operations."
I think we know where this is heading, don't we?
STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me ask one question about abortion. Then I want to turn to Iraq. You’re for a constitutional amendment banning abortion, with some exceptions for life and rape and incest.
MCCAIN: Rape, incest and the life of the mother. Yes.
STEPHANOPOULOS: So is President Bush, yet that hasn’t advanced in the six years he’s been in office. What are you going to do to advance a constitutional amendment that President Bush hasn’t done?
MCCAIN: I don’t think a constitutional amendment is probably going to take place, but I do believe that it’s very likely or possible that the Supreme Court should — could overturn Roe v. Wade, which would then return these decisions to the states, which I support.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And you’d be for that?
MCCAIN: Yes, because I’m a federalist. Just as I believe that the issue of gay marriage should be decided by the states, so do I believe that we would be better off by having Roe v. Wade return to the states. And I don’t believe the Supreme Court should be legislating in the way that they did on Roe v. Wade.
You see? McCain isn't trying to weasel his way out of an early position, he's simply a Federalist, which Answers.com defines as:
Federalsit, n.
- An advocate of federalism.
- An American politician who avoids taking a principled stand on a given issue.
See also; McCain, John
THE IRAQ WAR
Ever since the beginning of the Iraq war, McCain has been as steady as an old oak tree, a sea of calm amid the tempest, a wise old sage who - well why don't we just let McCain tell us in his own words, shall we?
MCCAIN: The American people ... were led to believe that this would be some kind of a day at the beach which many of us, uh, fully understood from the very beginning would be a very, very difficult undertaking. (8/22/2006, CNN)
MCCAIN: I knew it was probably going to be long and hard and tough. And those that voted for it and thought that somehow it was going to be some kind of an easy task, then I'm sorry they were mistaken. Maybe they didn't know what they were voting for. (1/4/2007, MSNBC)
Hmmmmm. Whoever could have given the American people the impression that the Iraq war would be easy?
Take it away you wily old Maverick!
MCCAIN: I believe that success will be fairly easy. (9/24/2002, CNN)
MCCAIN: I believe that we can win an overwhelming victory in a very short period of time. (9/29/2002, CNN)
MCCAIN: Easy.
Easy.
It was easy. (1/10/2007, MSNBC)
Easy. As. Pie.
************
It's easier to build off frames that are already deeply imbedded in the public's consciousness, and quite enjoyable to use Republican frames against them.
Of course there are other lines of attack that will also be effective against McCain, such as his, um, "close" support for the wildly unpopular Bush administration.
("hold me closer tiny dancer...")
...His unfailing support for the wildly unpopular war in Iraq, his advocacy for continued expansion of our presence there, and his brilliant call for us to stay for there for 100 more years.
("It's truely amazing that I can shop freely in this marketplace with only two mechanized battalions for my protection. Now how do you say "Bengay" in Arabic?")
...His desire to "Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Iran."
...He's also, how shall we say this, loathed, detested, and hated by large swaths of the conservative base, who view him as a Republican In Name Only:
Nothing is certain, and if nominated, McCain could certainly pull off a victory in November. However, I think he'll be a lot easier to beat than many Democrats realize, mostly due to his constant, uninterrupted, unfailing, enthusiatic flip-flopping.
Bring. Him. On.
Peace!