Anyone want to discuss the situation in saudi arabia, and how that indicates a tetonic shift in the geography of power in the middle east?
Let's start with The Saudi Shift
When Bush attacked Iraq, he also attacked the stability and credibility of the Saudi Royal Family. The Saudi royal family's position is delicately balanced on a double-edged sword. One edge of the sword faces America. The other edge of the sword faces the Arab people.The Arab people hate our support of Israel, and resent our support for the resource-rich tyrannies that ring the Gulf, and dominate middle eastern politics and economics.
When Bush attacked Iraq, the Saudi royal family's position became unbalanced between their people and our empire. The "King" has three choices: turn the sword towards America, the people, or himself.
Bush has destabilized this delicate balance, requiring the "king" to re calibrate his position between his people and American foreign policy. As the "king" depends on American power to maintain his tyrannical dictatorship, lessening his dependence on America requires broadening his appeal to his own people.
The King's people are sunnis who are seriously pissed off about Iraq. Bush's Iraq adventure has so enraged the Sunni Arabs that the "King" has been forced to take drastic action to preserve his dictatorship.
The "King" will no longer turn up oil production at our command. The "King" has declared that our occupation of Iraq is illegal. It appears that the "King" is tolerating the movement of Saudi fighters and dollars into Western Iraq to directly confront the Illegal American Occupation. The "King" has independently tried to restart negotiations with Israel.
Saudi Arabia is now acting independently of American influence in the middle east.
Bush' response to this shocking change reveals the outlines of a vague plan forming in his addled brain. As the invasion of Iraq has empowered Iran, Bush is now being forced by the Saudi shift to accommodate the ex-Bathist Sunni in Western Iraq.
Bush is now arming and supporting the same Sunni insurgents we brutalized in Falluja, while simultaneously backing and arming a Shite-dominated government.
Bush has been forced down the contradictory path of arming both sides in the ongoing Iraqi civil war as a result of his inability to foresee, or understand, the complexities of Iraqi society that lay under the rule of Saddam before invading Iraq. If we write down every move Bush has made in Iraq, we see the outlines of a recipe for disaster.
Bush's embracing the falluja sunnis indicates that Bush has finally realized that his invasion and occupation has failed, and incapable of imposing american authority militairly or politically.
Since American power has proven itself incapable of holding Iraq together, Bush has instead decided to pull it apart. This dramatically increases the risk that the Sunni-Shite civil war in Iraq could turn into a regional war.
Bush's anticipation of an Iraqi breakup and the associated risks of this civil war sucking in Iran is behind the 30 billion dollar arms package to the Saudis, the Sunni the gulf state emirates, and Israel.
This arms sale is a strong indication that Bush is splitting his bet between the shite government and the sunnis in al anbar by gunning up both sides. The defacto partition of Iraq that has already happened may ultimately spark a regional war between the Sunni and Shite.
Even with billions in American arms the Saudis and Sunnis are no match for Iran, and will suffer terribly without significant direct American military support.
Thus the billions in arms to the Saudis, and support for the American-killing Sunni insurgents in Iraq.
The arming of the Saudis and Sunni insurgents may well come back to shoot us in the ass. The Sunni insurgents in Iraq will most certainly turn against the occupation, and the Saudis are already charting an independent regional diplomatic course as we arm them to the teeth.
The bottom line is that the Saudi ruling family will do what is necessary to maintain their hold on power. It is probable this will require they become completely independent of American power.
The balance of power in the middle east has already shifted out from under American control. American dominance has been diminished on two fronts. First, the location of power has shifted geographically, moving to the east towards Iran, and away from Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Second, and even more importantly, the notion of legitimate political authority has been dramatically transformed, shifting away from foreign supported dictators and "kings" towards a notion of legitimacy based on independent local political authority. Islam.
Bush has dramatically accelerated these pre-existing trends, but decades of colonial domination of the middle east lays behind these rapid dramatic shifts.
What do you think?