So this is not about the GE match-up between the two. It is rather about what the pundits keep saying by comparing McCain's weakness in winning the blue states and losing the red states, with Obama's doing the reverse. What they neglect to mention is that McCain DOES HAVE a conservative problem. The base of his party doesn't like him, doesn't trust him, and some of it has vowed to not vote for him. His wins in the blue states is NOT an indicator of his weakness with his base, but the fact that he cannot win in the red states in addition to the aforementioned problems suggests that he may not be able to unite the party and mobilize a big turn out among a base constituency that has elected Republicans to different offices for more than two decades.
more after the jump....
Not the case for Obama. He doesn't have a problem with the base of his party. People who vote for his opponents would gladly vote for him in the GE. In fact he has the support of the most enthusiastic portion of his party, both in terms of grass root activists and contributers. He has done very well with the most liberal members of the party, in addition to the center to center-right. The two main groups with which he has had a problem with are white women and Hispanics. Kos has addressed the Hispanics problem before, I won't repeat that, but we have seen that New Mexico and Arizona he got more than 40% of that voting block, which suggests that the reason that the Hispanics didn't vote for him in CA and FL was more because they liked Clinton than because they disliked him. The same can be told about white women. His opponent in the primary is a white woman, and their vote for Clinton cannot be interpreted as a vote against Obama. What he has shown is that he will be as competative as any other Democrat in the blue states, while he will be able to expand his electoral horizon into the purple to red states.