(Cross-posted at The Field.)
Now that 26 states have voted (and two have taken themselves out of contention on the Democratic side) there are just 22 states left to decide the Democratic and Republican nominations.
They don't include Obama's home state of Illinois. They don't include Clinton's home states of New York and Arkansas. They don't include John McCain's home state of Arizona. They don't include Mitt Romney's four home states of Massachusetts, Michigan, Utah or (summer home) New Hampshire. And they don't include Mike Huckabee's home state of Arkansas.
All that's left is virgin territory, and a minority of US voters. And the contests will come week after week, day after day, in clusters of one to four at a time...
National polling of a sample group where half have already voted (or had the chance to) now officially tells us nothing about what will happen next.
What means something right now? Louisiana, Washington, and Nebraska. Maine. Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. Wisconsin and Hawaii. Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island. Mississippi. Pennsylvania...
National polls will tell us nothing about what will happen in any of these states. And more than half their survey size has already been "corrupted," in polling terms, by the act of having voted already.
And the pollsters are having a rough enough year already. Gallup, Rasmussen, Zogby, et al... save your money. Give 'em a rest, or focus your efforts on the future states, not the past ones.