I suspect the Old Dominion will be the ground on which Clinton chooses to fight for the Potomac Primary on Tuesday. It is her best Demographics. The state is only 19.9% black, compared to Maryland's 29.5% and of course DC is majority black, and the popular new mayor is actively working the city for Obama.
Maine is about as white as a state gets, with less than 1% of the population being black. What will be of greater importance is the other demographic characteristics of the state, which may give Clinton something of an advantage she is unlikely to experience in any other state until Texas and Ohio in March.
In this diary I will explore some data from the US Census Bureau, their quick facts from 2006, with the data from both Maine and Virginia. I will also offer some observations as a resident of the Old Dominion since 1982.
Come along for the ride.
Let me start with Maine.
14.5% of the population is over 65. Remember, Clinton does best with people over 50 and especially over 65. The national percentage is 12.6%, meaning Maine is slightly older than average.
Maine is 51.1% female, compared to the national average of 50.7. It is less well educated than the nation as a whole:
22.9% have at least a bachelors, as compared to 24.4 nationally. It is 95.8% white not Hispanic.
As of 2000 less than 3% of its population was foreign born (compared to a national average of over 11%).
Its median household income was also below the national average, $41,287 compared to $44,334.
I have seen no recent polling data for the state, so a much earlier poll showing Clinton substantially ahead is meaningless. The one demographic in which Maine is not more favorable is the Hispanic population, which is miniscule, only 1% compared to a national average of 14.8%. So any advantage Clinton might gain from the lack of blacks is offset by the lack of Hispanics.
Still, I see a real possibility of Clinton carrying Maine, although if Obama sweeps the events on Saturday I suspect that such news might be sufficient to guarantee a victory for him in the northeast on Sunday. Also, what poking around I have done is that Obama has had an active volunteer effort on the ground in Maine for some time, and that Clinton has only recently begun to gear up. Still, Maine is her best shot this weekend, and if she cannot win there, the rest of February is likely to be a dry month for her.
Now let's look at the Old Dominion.
Virginia is 50.8% female .1% more than the national average.
It is more Hispanic than Maine, 6.3%, but that pales compared to the 19,9% Black population, and the relative size of those two populations favors Obama.
It is only 11.6% over 65, less than the national average.
A real key is education, with 29.5% having at least a bachelors, 20% more than the national average.
It is wealthier, with the mean household income of $51,103 being substantially higher than the nation's $44,334.
In other words, the demographics of Virginia seem more favorable to Obama than to Clinton.
Clinton has some important political operatives working the state on her behalf - Mike Henry, her national deputy campaign manager (who became famous for the memo suggesting they skip Iowa) ran the statewide campaign for Tim Kaine when he was elected Governor. Mo Elleithee is quite experienced in doing communications in the state. And most of all, Mame Reilly has run political operations for Mark Warner and is an important figure even at the national level. All are strongly committed to Clinton.
But I have to think that is more than offset by the efforts of Governor Tim Kaine and former Lt Governor Don Beyer, of the two congressmen who have endorsede, Bobby Scott in a district stretching from Richmond to Tidewater and Rick Boucher in Southwest, of the various mayors such as Bill Euille in Alexandria, Nelson Harris of Roanoke, Dave Norris of Charlottesville and most of all Doug Wilder in Richmond, of the many state legislators, including a big advantage in current and former female delegates and senators.
Virginia is far from being uniform as a state Eve Northern Virginia has parts that are very different, with Prince William county electing Republicans who are hostile to immigration as compared to Arlington which welcomes immigrants and has 3 openly gay elected officials. It is a state that had significant support for John Edwards, stemming in partfrom 2004 but also because his message resonated here - much of his visible support has now publicly switched to Obama. The Obama campaign has been active statewide for a while, having brough staffer in from the successful effort in SC, and having opened offices in several locations across the state - as far as I know Clinton has her national office in Arlington and that is it.
Tomorrow is Virginia's Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner. There are a lot of events all day in Richmond. Both candidates will speak at the event. Last year Obama was the speaker, and the governor endorsed him the day before. Both campaigns, as well as that of Edwards, had tables set up outside the hall where the dinner and speeches were. I noted afterwards about 30% more traffic at the Obama table than at the Clinton table. And there were more people working the site for Obama, mainly young. Last year I had the distinction of being quite lonely- I was as far as I know the only one wearing a visible sign for Vilsack, someone almost no one I encountered had even heard of! I suspect that there will much visible indication of support for both candidates. I will look at bumper stickers, lapel stickers and buttons, enthusiasm at the speeches, and all that.
But from what I know after a quarter century in this state, while there is a core of support for the Clintons, as indicated by the loyalty of the state finance chair Jim Turpin, her candidacy does not generate quite the same level of spontaneous enthusiasm, at least hear in NoVa where I live.
I would also suspect that Obama's eperience in the Illinois State Senate will be meaningful to a number of party activists outside of NoVa, who do not carry a high opinion of the government in Washington. And I also suspect that those among our substantial military and veteran population who choose to vote in the primary will be more inclined to the clarity of Obama's position on Iraq than that of Clinton.
We do not have party registration in Virginia. Anyone can vote in either primary. With the perception that McCain has the Republican nomination locked up, I would not be surprised to see independents deciding to vote in the Dem primary - there are some who are genuinely torn between McCain and Obama, and who dislike anything Clinton. I do not expect to see a substantial conservative crossover to try to assist Clinton. For one thing, much of the conservative base of the Republican party in Virginia is religiously oriented, and with Dobson now having endorsed Huckabee they will be tempted to vote for him to stick a finger in the eye of McCain. Yes, some military types might cross the other way to vote for McCain, but I think it is not impossible that Huckabee could pull an upset in Virginia, although I do not view that as likely.
Should Virginia be close, which I do not think it will be, expecting Obama to win comfortably, there is one last factor which helps him. Yesterday I saw the ballot position in Arlington. If this is the statewide order, it will be advantage Obama. He appears first, Clinton third in a list that includes the names of those who have since withdrawn. In a dead even race - which this is not - that ballot position might be sufficient to ensure a 1-2% victory.
I will have a better sense after tomorrow. And now I will get ready to head for school. I hope the electrons expended on this effort are not totally wasted.
My current judgment is that Obama will carry the state by better than 10%. It may depend upon turnout. And in a bit more than 4 days we will know.
Peace.