I have seen many entries and links to try to make sense or predict the delegate counts after 2/5. The MSM's differing approaches (some count Superdelegates, some don't) and different counting methods lead to the confusion. So I thought I'd try to attempt what I think is a fairly good delegate estimate (+/- 5).
In estimating delegate counts, there are five steps I cans see. First, delegate counts before 2/5. Second, delegate counts from 2/5. Third, delegates not yet allocated from 2/5 states. Fourth, superdelegates. Fifth, the problem of Michigan and Florida.
I use MSNBC as my jumping off point, as they don't count superdelegates, but I also will list CNN, 2008 Dem Convention Watch (CNN, CBS, AP), and Green Papers. I'll try to note when the counts are different. This is a long one, if you just want my bottom lines, without all the X's and O's, just skip to the bottom. Here goes.
I. Pre 2/5 Delegate Count
This is the easy part, everyone agrees: Obama +15
Obama: 63
Clinton: 48
Edwards: 26
II. 2/5 Delegate Count (1,681 at stake)
This is more complex, I'll try to show each state, with the number of pledged delegates in parenthesis, the delegate allocations of MSNBC, and unallocated delegates, the vote% in that state, and any conflicting delegate allocations (if there is a variance).
AL:(52), BO 25-23; 4 left; vote% BO 56-42; DCW 25-24; CNN 20-21;
AK:(13), BO 9-4; 0 left, vote% BO 74-25; all agree
AS:(3), HRC 2-1; 0 left, vote% HRC 57-43; MSNBC didn't add it in.
AZ:(56), HRC 31-25; 0 left, vote% HRC 51-42; CNN 30-25
AR:(35), HRC 25-8; 2 left, vote% HRC 70-27, DCW, CNN 27-8
CA:(370), HRC 207-163, 0 left, vote% HRC 52-42, DCW 201-169, CNN 195-152
CO:(55), BO 19-9, 27 left, vote% BO 67-32, CNN 13-6
CT:(48), BO 26-22, 0 left, vote% BO 51-47, agreement.
DE:(15), BO 9-6, 0 left, vote% BO 53-43, agreement.
GA:(87), BO 45-24, 18 left, vote% BO 66-31, DCW 56-25, CNN 39-21
ID:(18), BO 15-3, 0 left, vote% BO 80-17, agreement.
IL:(153), BO 91-48, 14 left, vote% BO 65-33, DCW 96-49, CNN 91-45
KS:(32), BO 23-9, 0 left, vote% BO 74-26, agreement.
MA:(93), HRC 55-38, 0 left, vote% HRC 56-41, agreement.
MN:(72), BO 48-24, 0 left, vote% BO 66-32, agreement.
MO:(72), Tie 36-36, 0 left, vote% BO 49-48, agreement.
NJ:(107), HRC 59-48, 0 left, vote% HRC 54-44, agreement.
NM:(26), HRC 13-12, 1 left, vote% HRC 49-48 (still counting), agreement.
NY:(232), HRC 138-93, 1 left, vote% HRC 57-40, DCW 139-93
ND:(13), BO 8-5, 0 left, vote% BO 61-37, agreement.
OK:(38), HRC 24-14, 0 left, vote% HRC 55-31, agreement.
TN:(68), HRC 33-29, 6 left, vote% HRC 54-41, DCW 38-28, CNN 38-26
UT:(23), BO 14-9, 0 left, vote% BO 57-39, agreement.
There are 14 states in which all sources are in agreement, among which only NM has any delegates remaining (1), which I think will go to the victor. Lets go ahead and add in the totals from these 14 states and see what we have:
Obama: 63 + 301 = 364
Clinton: 48 + 271 = 319
Edwards: 26 + 0 = 26
Thats it for 13 states, but we still have 10 states that haven't had all, or any, delegates allocated. As one can see from the above three estimates, there is a range of agreement for some states, and a range they don't agree on. The next step is to go ahead an allocate the delegates that all three sources agree on, so here we go again.
AL:(52) MSNBC 25-23, DCW 25-24; CNN 20-21;
All three agree on at least 20 for BO, 21 for HRC, 11 left.
AZ:(56) MSNBC & DCW HRC 31-25, CNN 30-25.
All agree on at least 30-25 for HRC, 1 left.
AR:(35) MSNBC 25-8, DCW & CNN 27-8
All agree on at least 25-8 for HRC, 2 left.
CA:(370) MSNBC HRC 207-163, DCW 201-169, CNN 195-152
All agree on at least 195-152 for HRC, 23 left.
CO:(55) MSNBC & DCW BO 19-9, CNN 13-6
All agree on at least 13-6 for BO, 36 left.
GA:(87) MSNBC BO 45-24, DCW 56-25, CNN 39-21
All agree on at least 39-21 for BO, 27 left.
IL:(153) MSNBC BO 91-48, DCW 96-49, CNN 91-45
All agree on at least 91-45 for BO, 17 left.
NY:(232) MSNBC & CNN HRC 138-93, DCW 139-93
All agree on at least 138-93 for HRC, 1 left
TN:(68) MSNBC 33-29, DCW 38-28, CNN 38-26
All agree on at least 33-26 for HRC, 9 left
NM:(26): All agree on 13-12 HRC, already counted them, with 1 left,
Now, lets add these in to our totals to get the delegate count that all the sources agree on, and what is left over.
Obama: 364 + 467 = 831 pledged
Clinton: 319 + 514 = 833 pledged
Edwards: 26 + 0 = 26 pledged
Not allocated yet = 128 pledged
III. Non Delegated Delegates from 2/5: 128
So here we are at the point where all three sources have agreed, at least to the extent that no one estimate excludes another, and HRC is +2, with 128 delegates left to allocate, and once one looks at where the bulk of those delegates come from, the vote % in those states, and the other estimates about those states, no rational person can think HRC will have a pledged delegate lead. Why, because 91 of the 128 remaining delegates are in states where Obama won Big or Huge. 36 in CO, 27 in GA, 17 in IL, and 11 in AL. Clinton has only 36 in states she won Big or Huge, 23 in CA, 9 in TN, 1 in NY and AZ. And then there 1 left in NM.
How big is Obama's lead? Well, we have 10 states remaining from 2/5 with total delegates remaining, the previous allocation, vote%, and the estimates, along with my allocation and why.
CO:(36/55) BO 13-6(CNN), vote% BO 67-32; NBC/DCWC 19-9
I go 24-12 (2/1) for Obama. Right along both estimates and the vote%. This puts the total at 37-18.
GA:(27/87) BO 39-21(CNN), vote% BO 66-31; NBC 45-24, DCW 56-25
Should be running a tad better than 2/1 in here, CNN and NBC have him a bit under that, at did our previous allocation, I go 21-6 for Obama based off of DCW plus the vote% from what's left from there (4-2) for 60-27 total.
CA:(23/370) HRC 195-152(CNN), vote% HRC 52-42; NBC 207-163, DCW 201-169
I go with with a 12-11 split from here. It gives a total of 207-163, which was NBC's call. It undercuts the DCW total for Obama by 6, although it is under the vote%, but the total isn't that out of line. Both DCW and NBC have Obama with at least 163. And the previous allocation seems a bit high (4 to 3).
IL:(17/153) BO 91-45(CNN), vote% BO 65-33, NBC 91-48, DCW 96-49
A hairs breadth under 2 to 1 on vote%, and most of the estimates are in that range as well, I'll go 10-7 with the remaining delegates for a total of 101-52, even though from the NBC and DCW, it could be a tad higher.
AL:(11/52) HRC 21-20(CNN), vote% BO 56-42, NBC BO 25-23, DCW 25-24
Despite clobbering her in the vote, a slim delegate lead (and a deficit from CNN). I'd hope Obama would get almost all of what's left, but the other two estimates don't seem to think so. I'll go 8-3 on what's left to restore my sense of justice, as what has been counted seems a bit out of whack, to give BO at 28-24 tally.
TN:(9/68) HRC 33-26, vote% HRC 54-41, NBC 33-29, CNN 38-26, DCW 38-28
The NBC spread is a closer than the other two, plus seems a bit tight considering the vote total. HRC should get the lion's share of the nine left, I'll go 6-3, for a 39-29 tally.
AR:(2/35) HRC 25-8(NBC), vote% HRC 70-27, DCW & CNN 27-8
I'll go with the other two projections, it's a blowout, she gets both to end at 27-8.
NY:(1/232) HRC 138-93(CNN, NBC), vote% HRC 57-40, DCW 139-93
I'll give the last one to HRC, for a 139-93 total.
AZ:(1/56) HRC 30-25(CNN), vote% 51-42, DCW & NBC 31-25
I'll give it to HRC in line with the other two sources, 31-25 total.
NM:(1/26) HRC 13-12(all), vote% HRC 49-48.
Still counting, I think the winner will get the delegate, but I'm not sure, I'll give it to HRC as she is slightly ahead.
Sum Up: of the 128 delegates out there, 91 were in states where BO won big. Final allocation totals: BO 77, HRC 51. Add them in, and presto:
Obama: 831 + 77 = 908 Pledged
Clinton: 833 + 51 = 884 Pledged
Edwards: 26 + 0 = 26 Pledged
For a total of 1,818 Pledged delegates (thru 2/5) and Obama +24.
IV. Superdelegates: 795(6)
There are supposed to be 796 Superdelegates, but the Senator from CT has been stripped of his Superdelegate status under the Zell Miller rule (crossing party lines) and is out. I don't know if there will be a substitute named or not. Also, according to DCW, about 75 superdelegates ahven't been named yet.
If one wants to count superdelegates into the race, it gets more complex, because there are varying estimates. CNN, Green Papers, and DCW all have breakdowns by state, and DCW also provides estimates from CBS and AP, and a breakdown by state, a listing of individuals by state and affiliation, and a breakdown by source (Senate, Governor, House, DNC, etc). It shows that HRC's lead is based mostly on DNC members (and House members), which doesn't bode well for any convention/credentials fight if one is an Obama supporter.
Here is the current rundown: and what adding them on to my predicted pledged total yields. With 2,025 needed to nominate.
CNN: HRC 193, BO 106; HRC 1,077, BO 1,014 = HRC +63
GP: HRC 219, BO 123; HRC 1,103, BO 1,031 = HRC +72
DCW: HRC 218, BO 124; HRC 1,102, BO 1,031 = HRC +70
CBS: HRC 211, BO 128; HRC 1,095, BO 1,035 = HRC +60
AP: HRC 213, BO 139; HRC 1,098, BO 1,046 = HRC +52
So, HRC would then be up anywhere from 52 to 72 delegates. Remember, superdelegates come from sitting Democratic Senators and Representatives, Governors, DNC members, and other DPL's (Distinguished party leaders: former Pres, VP's, leaders, etc.)
So far, DCW has the committed super D's broken down as follows:
Clinton: Gov (10); Sen (12); Rep (75); DPL (10); DNC (111) = 218
Obama: Gov (10); Sen (9); Rep (57); DPL (2); DNC (46) = 124
No Endorse: Gov (11); Sen (27); Rep (89); DPL (8); DNC (244) = 379
Total: Gov (31); Sen (48); Rep (221); DPL (20); DNC (401) = 721
This would mean that 75 superdelegates haven't been named yet, or DCW hasn't been able to confirm who they are.
Remember, superdelegates can change their minds, and something of the sort may happen en masse if there is a need to avoid a brokered convention.
IV. Michigan and Florida
Currently, it looks like Michigan might hold another election (caucus or primary) while Florida will not. In any case, whether seated or not, I would hope the DNC would a least have the spine (those those have been in short supply lately) to a least ban the superdelegates from both states from voting.
However, for the record, here is what we have from each state, as of now, using the DCW superdelegate count.
Michigan
Clinton: 73 PL; 8 SD's
Obama: 0 PL (not on ballot); 1 SD
Uncommitted: 55 PL;
Florida:
Clinton: 105 PL; 6 SD's
Obama: 67 PL; 2 SD's
Edwards: 13 PL; 0 SD's
Totals, using the AP SD numbers, which I think are the most reliable, with 2,208 needed to nominate (but also are most favorable to BO, as of now)
EDIT: I made a mistake here, which was caught by some fantastic comments, which I've now fixed (105 + 73 = 178 NOT 188!) Sorry, typo not caught.
Clinton: 178 + 14 SD's + 1,098 = 1,290
Obama: 67 + 3 SD's + 1,046 = 1,106; + 55? = 1,161; HRC +184 or +129
Uncomm. 55 + 0 = 55
Edwards: 13 + 26 = 39
Clinton's lead uld depend on if any penalties were assessed (say like giving them .5/vote each), if SD's were allowed to vote, and how many of the Uncommitted Michigan delegates would go for Obama (a lot, I would think) and how the Edwards delegates voted.
The net gain from FLA/Mich : the net gain would be in a range of:
MAX: HRC +122 (everyone seated, no penalties, BO gets 0 Edwards and Uncommitted.
MED: HRC +67 (everyone seated plus BO gets all the MI Uncommitted's)
MIN: HRC +54 (BO gets Edwards' 13 as well).
EDIT: I made an arithmetic mistake here: fixed.
VI. Summary
- Pledged Total post 2/5, including estimates
Obama: 908
Clinton: 884
Net: BO +24
- Estimate with AP Superdelegate Numbers
Clinton: 1,098
Obama: 1,046
Net: HRC +52 (could be as hight as +70)
HRC Superdelegate gain: +74 to +96
- Estimates with Florida and Michigan Seated (EDIT: fixed math error)
Clinton: 1,290
Obama: 1,106 to 1,161 depending on how many uncommitted's he gets)
Net: HRC +184 to +129 (maybe another +18 on alternate SD counts)
Net HRC gain from FLA/Mich being seated: +122 to +67
VII. Bottom Line for Obamites
He may be leading in pledged delegates, but he needs gain another 50 to 72 seats this month to erase her superdelegate lead, while trying not to lose anymore ground. I think he can get close to that by the end of the month, but it will be close, and then a struggle to hold that margin from there (TX, OH, PA, RI all favor HRC). Keeping the SD race at its present margin will be another challenge, but most of HRC's lead was from early SD's who declared early, still, she is the consummate insider.
He needs then to keep FLA and MICH out, or win MI (or at least make it a LOT closer, even if the margin is the same, he'd at least have delegates pledged to HIM, not uncommitted's), then gain another +60 to feel safe to erase getting burned by Florida. That is going to be tough. Have to hope the string of victories starting tomorrow (hopefully) gives him momentum into March 4th and PA.
Sorry for the length.