I realize this may not be the most original of diary topics. There is one of these types of diaries on the right side of the page right now. But I think its important to get across on these boards why this isn't just whining and moaning, and why it's a very real problem.
On a board like Daily Kos, we take for granted that the people here are Democrats, loyal to the party and its ideas. We assume that since Obama and Hillary share most of their policies, and they would likely try to achieve the same things in office, that people who are really pissed at Hillary are only being petulant, or are just being emotional, and won't be so stupid as to vote for a Republican in November. I think this is based on a very serious misinterpretation of the voter pool, one of which is skewed by the demographics of this site.
More after the break...
There seems to be a misunderstanding of the way that the Hillary and Obama camps have come to be. Here is one way of looking at it:
There is a certain pool of voters who are liberal, progressive, and open minded, and currently Hillary and Obama are dividing up that pool. What was once a single pool of 'Democratic voters' has been split in two, but with time and facing a Republican opponent, it will come back together as one, since, after all, they are all Democratic voters.
I think this is a totally wrong interpretation of what is going on, and I'll say something that will be an example of it.
I voted for George Bush in 2004.
Now, saying that will probably piss many people off enough that they will just dismiss what I say here. If you want to hold a grudge against me, fair enough. But I think I'm an example of why the above interpretation of general election voters is wrong, and let me give a short little story of why.
In 2004, I was in college, and I actually volunteered to help Bush win. Living in CA, we had no shot, but I was in college, and I enjoyed the camaraderie. We all got very into it; I thought the GOP was great, Bush was misunderstood, and that he would be a good president. Obviously, I was incredibly wrong. But I remember watching the Democratic convention that year. I don't remember when it came, but I watched it with some pretty solid derision. I didn't like anyone, and had never heard of Barack Obama. So he is announced as the speaker, and I watch. After a few minutes of watching this guy, who I had never heard of before, I had two thoughts:
- Jesus, this is scary. This dude can beat us in 4 years. I've never even heard of him before, but I can see it.
- I might vote for this guy.
I actually thought that I might vote for Obama right then and there. I was working for the Bush campaign, and he hooked me in.
This is a long way of trying to explain the other explanation of how the voting groups are aligned. I think its much more accurate to say that Obama is creating new voters (which we all know), but they are not Democratic voters. At least, not yet. I have no intention of ever voting for Hillary Clinton. EVER. I never did, and I never will. I will probably sit out the election if she is nominated. But I'm not being ornery or obstinate - I think she'd be an awful President, and have for a long time. But Barack Obama is someone I can get behind. Not because he is the best Democratic nominee, but because he is the best nominee, period. The fact that he is a Democrat is almost incidental. I would vote for him if he ran independent, if he ran Green, if he ran anything. And if the Democrats want so make sure that the enthusiasm, the movement, that has come with Barack Obama is transferred from him to the party, he has to actually win.
This election is showing massive turnout in the Democratic primaries, and that's awesome. But I don't think its evidence that the Democrats are going to dominate the next 20 years - it's evidence that they can. People voting in this primary season are potential Democrats - they aren't already there.
Instead of treating this primary race as a race to decide who Democratic voters like more, it's a referendum on whether there will be more Democrats in the future. Obama can turn people into Democrats, but only if he wins.