Much has been said about the good old superdelegates, and how they could "break" one way or the other. Not much has been said about what we can do about it.
It turns out, a majority of superdelegates (beyond each state's "add-on" delegates) have specific constituencies. According to my calculations, based in part on information on the New York Times' site, if the superdelegates with constituencies that have already voted, vote their districts, it will benefit Obama by a margin of 62-44, narrowing Clinton's advantage significantly and making the race even more out of reach. I think it's time for these superdelegates to hear from us.
Details below the break...
Demconwatch has a good breakdown of exactly which superdelegates are supporting whom. Their breakdown was most recently updated 3/4, and since then Obama has had a net pickup in supers.
Here's what they have (updated by me to represent changes since 3/4):
Governors: O 11 C 10, No endorsement 10
Senators: O 15 C 13, No endorsement 20
Representatives: O 71 C 72, No endorsement 78
Distinguished Party Leaders: O 4 C 10, No endorsement 5
Add-ons: O 2 C 0, No endorsement 74
DNC: O 102 C 139(!), No endorsement 162
Total: O 205 C 244, No endorsement 349
Now, the 74 add-ons are pretty much pre-determined by who won what state (although in Alabama, there was a fight by the Clinton folks about who got that state's add-on), so Clinton won't be making up any ground there -- in fact, she'll almost certainly be losing some.
Most of the rest of these superdelegates have constituencies. Meaning us.
As far as I can determine, 108 of the remaining 275 uncommitted/non add-on superdelegates are congressmen, senators, or governors. These have obvious constituencies. Then there are the shadowy party aparatchiks falling under the heading of "DNC." But many of these -- 45 to be specific -- are not just any old party functionary. In fact, many of these are people directly accountable to members of the Democratic party. Why?
Because they are state party chairs and vice chairs.
So, who are the uncommitted superdelegates?
According to the Times, 56 of the 78 uncommitted congressmen represent districts that have voted. Of those, 30 districts went for Clinton and 26 went for Obama. (This counts Pelosi's district for Clinton, but I've seen it elsewhere as going for Obama.) The Congressmen whose districts went for Obama are Cramer of AL; Udall and Salazar of CO; Courtney of CT; Marshall of GA; Hirono of HI; Braley of IA; Emanuel and Lipinski of IL; Boyda and Moore of KS; Sarbanes, Hoyer, and Van Hollen of MD; Allen and Michaud of ME; Peterson of MN; Wilson of OH; Spratt and Clyburn of SC, and Larsen and McDermott of WA. (I can't find info for Louisiana, New Jersey, or Texas, so I assigned Holt (NJ) and Rodriguez (TX) to Clinton and Jefferson (LA), Melancon (LA), and Lampson (TX) to Obama.)
Of the 20 uncommitted Senators, 15 are from states that haven't voted. Of those, 10 are from states that went to Obama: Akaka (HI), Biden (DE), Cardin (MD), Carper (DE), Harkin (IA), Klobuchar (MN), Kohl (WI), Landrieu (LA), Salazar (CO), and Webb (VA). (Reid's NV was a split state.)
Of the 6 uncommitted governors whose states have voted, 2 states went to Obama (WY and CO) and 4 to Clinton (TN, OK, NH, NM). (I highly doubt Bill Ritter of Colorado will endorse, since it's "his" convention this year.)
Then there are the state chairs and vice-chairs, which are part of the DNC category. This is where it's a ROUT for Obama.
Of the 22 uncommitted state chairs whose states have voted, 16 represent Obama states (CO, CT, DE, HI, ID, IA, KS, LA, MD, MO, NE, ND, UT, DC, WA, and Dems Abroad), 4 represent Clinton states, and 2 represent split states (NV and TX). Of the 9 uncommitted state chairs whose states have voted, all 9 represent Obama states! These are DE, HI, MD, MO, SC, WA, WI, WY and VI.
Overall, with these elected officials (minus Ritter), state chairs and vice chairs taken into consideration, giving Clinton the benefit of the doubt about the split states of TX & NV, the tally is Obama 62, Clinton 44. If these folks voted their constituents, Clinton's superdelegate lead, which was once around 100 and is now 39, narrows to 21.
And for those in states that haven't voted, 4 uncommitted chairs (MS, MT, NC, OR) and 4 vice chairs (MT, OR, MS, SD (vacant)) are in states that favor Obama. Only 6 chairs and vice chairs are in states that favor Clinton. 2 uncommitted governors (NC and MT) are in states that favor Obama, 2 (KY, WV) in states that favor Clinton. 3 uncommitted senators (Baucus and Tester MT, and Wyden OR) are in states that favor Obama, and 2 (Byrd WV and Casey PA) in states that favor Clinton. And of 21 uncommitted congressmen, 12 are in states that favor Obama and 9 are in states that favor Clinton. If these break that way, Clinton's superdelegate lead narrows by 6 more.
So this is a call out to Kossacks to contact their congressmen, senators, and state chairs and vice chairs. Respectfully explain to them that their constituents have spoken and it's time for them to choose. Explain why you support Obama and that declaring their support now is crucial to the health of the party. Thank them for their work on your behalf, and for taking on this important role. Particularly point out that Obama's coattails and 50-state-strategy is crucial for the long-term viability of the Democratic party. (Clinton supporters, feel free to contact your folks, as well!) The state chairs and vice chairs in particular need to hear from Democratic volunteers, donors, county officers, precinct captains, etc. They need to hear, respectfully, that their constituents have voted and have made a clear signal that they want change in our national leadership. They need to know why Obama is your choice and why he should be theirs.
Use the comments to give contact info and let us know about your experiences contacting these folks.