Personally, I think momentum is a pile of crap in this election, an easy and vapid way for the media to discuss results and trends. As other diarists have pointed out, there doesn't seem to be any reason why results for a particular state wouldn't stay about the same regardless of when that state's election would be held. The only exceptions, perhaps, are some earlier states where Clinton benefited from better name recognition, extended voting periods, or not enough time to campaign.
If you look at results from week to week, starting January 1, 2008, Obama has increased his lead in the sums of all categories of delegates over Clinton -- every single week. Some times by a lot, sometimes by a little, but always (a) cutting into Clinton's lead and then eventually (b) increasing his lead.
I started with January 1, 2008. That happened to be a Tuesday. So the weeks I used were Tuesday to the following Monday. I used CNN's elected delegate counts (primary and caucus) for each state and the New York Times for each non-state. I used 2008 Democratic Convention Watch for a weekly count of Superdelegate losses and gains for the candidates. I assumed that Clinton started out the year with a 101 lead in Superdelegates. That assumption may be false because 2008 Democratic Convention Watch did not start counting until January 11, 2008, when they computed a 101 Superdelegate lead for Clinton.
Some weeks contained no elections, but all weeks contained some movement in delegates (by a change in Superdelegates). In the table below, positive (+) numbers represent a net increase for Obama and negative (-) numbers a net increase for Clinton.
Week in 2008 | Super Change | Pledged Change | Notes |
2007 | -101 | | |
January 1-7 | | +1 | Iowa election; assuming no Superdelegate change as described above |
January 8-14 | +5 | 0 | New Hampshire election |
January 15-21 | +2 | +1 | Nevada election; Michigan election also held but ignored |
January 22-28 | -2 | +13 | South Carolina election |
January 29-February 4 | +3 | | No contributing election; Florida election held but ignored |
February 5-11 | -4 | +79.5 | Super Tuesday plus elections in Louisiana, Nebraska, Virgin islands, Washington, Maine; used current California count (which is +8 since Super Tuesday) and Democrats Abroad results |
February 12-18 | +19.5 | +46 | Chesapeake (or Potomac) elections |
February 19-25 | +13.5 | +18 | Hawaii and Wisconsin elections |
February 26-March 3 | +17 | | No elections held |
March 4-10 | +9 | -4 | Little Super Tuesday (Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont) and Wyoming election; counted elected caucus delegates in Texas; did not count certified +8 shift in California |
March 11-17 | | +5 | Mississippi election; no results from 2008 Democratic Convention Watch yet; but we know of at least +1 because of Spitzer's resignation |
Totals | -38 | 164.5 | |
As you can see: steady progress throughout the campaign. The results may not be so one-sided if different weeks are chosen, but the trend is clear. Tuesday to Monday seems a good choice because it amalgamates the consequences, if any, of a Tuesday election with the remaining week. This progress occurs despite whatever tactics Clinton tries. Obama's tactics have been reasonably consistent: a change in the way we do politics, policy tidbits, immediate defense against attacks, and no personal negative attacks tolerated.