I've seen a recent diary calling the Obama position that the delegate count is the most important factor in this primary delusional. The argument goes:
A Hillary victory in raw popular vote is going to carry a lot more weight than an Obama lead in pledged delegates. She's beating him now with Florida + Michigan, nearly tied with Michigan removed, and lagging only barely without those two states. -BPK
At first glance it seems there is some logic in there, but that logic is predicated on a delusional premise.
This is all covered very nicely over at americablog, but I think it is worth rehashing here for those that don't get out of dailykos much. Please see:
When Good Math Goes Bad or Why the Delegate Count Counts
Let's make this simple. You can't give the popular vote the same weight as the delegate count in a mixed system. Some states have primaries. Some states have caucuses. More people turn out for primaries than caucuses. Why? Because it is a heck of a lot easier to show up at some point during the day and push a button than it is to stand around in a gym for two hours and listen to speeches.
The caucus system is not a bad system. But, by its very nature, less people participate in the process. While it is representative of the will of the people in that state, including the raw numbers for a caucus state with those of a primary state is like comparing apples and applejuice concentrate. You are not going to say a can of frozen applejuice mix that makes a gallon of juice is exactly the same thing as an apple. They go on to explain:
For example -
In the Wisconsin primary, about 1.1 million people voted.
In the Minnesota caucus, about 210,000 people voted.
Again, keep in mind that it's a lot tougher to break away for hours to caucus than it is to show up to a poll and just vote.
The delegate allocation system takes this into consideration.
Wisconsin had 74 pledged delegates
Minnesota had 72 pledged delegates.
It's why The Biggest Loser measures percent of weight lost versus actual pounds. Because the big 400 lb guy is going to have more weight to lose - and be able to lose it more quickly - than the 175 lb woman. Percentages even the playing field.
Toss out this system, and Wisconsin gets more than five times the "say" of Minnesota in the democratic primary. Minnesota is essentially penalized for holding a caucus. And even though Senator Obama is winning the popular vote and the delegate count at this stage, if the caucus states had held primaries, it would be safe to assume the following:
Obama's delegate lead may have been cut slightly, but his popular vote lead would be almost insurmountable.
So, while Obama is currently winning the popular vote, the truth is that he would be winning the popular vote by a landslide (with slightly less delegates) if we weren't in a mixed caucus/primary system.
So, this other kos diarist calling the delegate count delusional got under my skin, partly because it reveals a partial understanding of the primary process and partly because I've been delusional, and this ain't it. ;)