I have great respect for kos. He's a hero to me. However, I'm not a "cult" member of his. He's not perfect. Back before the Michigan primary, kos was vocal in promoting Michigan Democrats to vote for Romney just to stir things up. It sounded unseemly and Republican-like to me, and I didn't really see it ultimately gaining anything. To me, it was a case where the means were definitely not worth the end. Tricks like that should be reserved for much more dire circumstances.
Now... it looks like Michigan might get a revote. I think that's ultimately a good thing for Obama, probably even a great thing. However, a sticking point in approving the Michigan revote will be whether or not people who voted in the Republican primary will be allowed to vote in the redo.
Now I think it's reasonable to make a rule that people who voted in the Republican primary can't also vote in a redo of the Democratic one. You only get one vote. Yes, it's unfair to those who voted on the Repub. side because their candidate wasn't on the Dem. ticket, but they had a choice of voting Uncommitted if they wanted to have their voice at least heard if not counted.
What will be the effect of not allowing votes from people who already voted on the Republican side? First of all, anybody who went with kos' suggestion of mischief will not get to participate in the second round. I call it karma for stooping to more Republican style politics since the "Vote Romney for a day" campaign possibly had the effect of reducing Obama support in the do-over. Since kossacks tend to favor Obama, this would most definitely be the effect of excluding them.
So, that's my beef with kos.
Will messing with Michigan's first vote have an effect on the redo? Luckily, maybe not.
According to CNN exit polls, the following vote totals occurred:
| Independant | Democrats |
Romney | 62,877 | 20,034 |
Other | 153,940 | 40,675 |
Now, if these Dems and Indys cannot vote in a new Democratic primary, who benefits the most from their exclusion? Obama or Clinton?
Luckily for kos, he didn't seem to have a very big effect. Kos's "Romney Democrats" are only 20,000 or so (even assuming that ALL 20 thousand of them were meddling as per kos's suggestion... not a very good assumption). Romney independants are not likely to be kossacks in any significant numbers. At only some fraction of 20,000, not too many kossacks will be excluded from a revote (relatively speaking to the likely Michigan turnout).
At 153,940, the biggest percentage is the non-Romney independants. About 1/3 of those were Huckabee and 2/3 McCain. Now whether it hurts Obama or Clinton to exclude these people is debatable. I'm sure you can come up with some good theories either way. I think it's hard to tell. As an Obama supporter, I wouldn't have missed the chance to vote uncommitted just to prove a point. As a Clinton supporter, I wouldn't have missed the chance to vote for her. But then again I didn't have to face the likelihood of my vote not counting. I would guess most of these other voters were not particularly committed to a Democrat in the first place, but that's just a guess.
Maybe Obama-leaning independants decided to cast a Republican vote since the Dem side didn't count and he wasn't on the ballot. That would hurt Obama in a recount. Perhaps McCain and Huckabee-leaning independants would have voted on the Republican side anyways, in which case nobody benefits. Maybe those independants were the kind that could never vote for a black candidate, in which case it helps Obama since they can't meddle with the Dem. revote. I'm sure there are multiple opinions.
FYI, the Independants who voted Democrat in the original vote broke 67,341 non-Clinton to 39,550 Clinton (practically NO Republicans voted for any major Dem candidate, including Uncommitted). Independants who could vote in a do-over are not Clinton-friendly. (Of course there are probably a lot of OTHER independants who can vote who never voted the first time).
So, my view is that stooping to Republican tactics should be avoided when unnecessary. It can come back to haunt you, even if it might not have done so in this case. But then again, 20,000 votes might be all that separates Obama and Clinton in a rematch, so we'll have to see if kos mischief comes back to bite us in the butt.