This is an analysis of the Mississippi primary written from the perspective of an Obama supporter and Mississippi resident.
For the first time in memory, Mississippi finds itself in the position of being able to influence the Democratic nominee for president. While Obama's ideal scenario is an overwhelming March 4 victory which will lead Hillary to withdraw from the race this week, that appears unlikely at this point (given recent statements from her campaign). At any rate, it is essential that Obama make preparations now to overwhelmingly win a state - Mississippi- that is his for the taking.
A look at the calender illustrates the importance of the Mississippi primary:
March 4
Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont primaries
March 8
Wyoming caucuses
March 11
Mississippi primary
April 22
Pennsylvania primary
Thus, the March 11 primary in Mississippi will be the last primary or caucus held for almost 6 weeks, until the crucial Pennsylvania primary upon which Hillary is placing much of her hope. If Hillary is teetering on the edge of withdrawal after March 4, an overwhelming defeat in Mississippi might well be the final straw. At some point, Hillary may try to argue that Obama's delegate lead was built up by wins in caucuses, and she may hope that the popular vote differential will be reduced in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Obama can maintain the popular vote differential in part by winning overwhelmingly in Mississippi.
Mississippi has 33 delegates available, and the Obama campaign has projected that it will win 20 delegates here and that Hillary will win 13. I think that with an effective get out the vote effort, Obama can improve upon this delegate split and build up his popular vote advantage as well.
In addition to the large black population here, Hillary has a PR problem dating back to an incident last fall where she chided the voters of Iowa for being the only state other than Mississippi not to elect a woman to the US House or Senate. Hillary noted that she would have expected that of Mississippi, but not of Iowa, implying that we are all a bunch of dumb misogynistic yokels. Hillary apologized for that statement, but it created a good bit of hard feelings down here and I expect she will regret it in coming days. She probably never dreamed at the time that she would be in a competitive race of any kind in this state, but here she is. Welcome to Mississippi, Hillary.
Mississippi has an open primary, which means that Republicans can vote here. I've talked to several white Republicans who are planning to vote Obama in the primary, and I've met no one planning to vote for Hillary. These people are all educated professional types, however, so I'm not sure how poorer white Republicans will vote. Given this uncertainty, I would just concentrate on GOTV efforts among black voters if I were the Obama campaign. Mississippi is 37% African-American- the largest black population in the country, percentage-wise. As elsewhere, these voters will be naturally predisposed to support Obama, but they obviously have to be aware that the primary is actually taking place in order to do so.
Right now, there is surprisingly little awareness of the upcoming primary among Mississippians, largely because we have never had a competitive primary in my memory. For the most part, the Obama campaign has been brilliantly led, but I think that one weak point in the campaign was Obama's get out the vote effort in Louisiana. Obama won Louisiana handily, but there were numerous reports of low turnout in black precincts, and it seemed to me that he left a lot of votes on the table in that state. The same thing will happen in Mississippi - especially in rural areas - if the Obama campaign does not make heroic GOTV efforts in this state.
I have been reading with interest reports that every Democratic voter in Ohio will have had an Obama or Hillary supporter knock on his door by March 4. After the March 4 primaries are over, there will be legions of Obama volunteers ready to make phone calls to voters, with very few primaries on the horizon to occupy their time. This being the case, it would be political malpractice for the Obama campaign to not make efforts to call every black voter in Mississippi to make sure they know when and where the primary will be held. Doing anything less will just be leaving votes on the table. I will be making calls and knocking on doors myself, but I need help from Obama supporters around the country.
It would also help a great deal if Obama could visit our state. I would recommend that he pay particular attention to Jackson and the Mississippi Delta region, with its huge black population. Obama has the support of powerful Delta Congressman Bennie Thompson, and I'm sure he will steer Obama in the right direction as far as where to campaign in that area. Obama should not neglect the many small predominantly black towns elsewhere in the state, however. In small East Mississippi towns like Aberdeen and Shannon, even the smallest GOTV efforts will play great dividends.
The Mississippi Gulf Coast area devastated by Katrina has a strong union presence, and Obama might do well to visit there if he has the time. He might also make a play for the support of Congressman Gene Taylor, a superdelegate. Taylor is an extremely conservative Democrat, basically a Republican with a (D) next to his name, so I'm not sure how eager he will be to support Obama. Winning his district will be a good start, however. The Gulf Coast area is a bit of a crapshoot in general for Obama, so if I were him I'd concentrate my Mississippi efforts on just getting out the black vote. Because that's the bottom line here- Obama has huge potential support here and they don't need to be persuaded with too many policy arguments. They do need to know when and where to vote, however, and it is the Obama campaign's challenge to make sure they have this information.