I don’t intend to be a frequent diarist or commenter, I will never use the word "Breaking" in a title, I will not comment on polls, Rush, or Fox and I will militate against providing links – for factual verification, start with Wikipedia, work outbound from there. These are simply my thoughts; do with them as you will.
The idea burbling around tonight is that Hillary Clinton is dedicated to remaining in the race for the Democratic nomination despite what happens in Texas or Ohio. That doesn’t make much sense, but there’s an old saying I like about politics: If something doesn’t make sense, you’re not standing in the right place.
Stand with me where Hillary is.
Put aside for the moment how many of the former candidates on both sides were "in it all the way to the end." Why has she said she’ll dig in and keep going?
To keep the donors energized? That's the obvious answer, but it's not enough. That won't do it, and if she loses one or both of Ohio and Texas, her funding starts to dry up because, as Hizzoner Mare Daley said, "Don’t back no losers" and the big donors will jump to Obama so they can guarantee some access down the road. The small donors will be even more energized, and I don’t see the Clintons pouring more personal money into this enterprise. So the money reasons say, "Get out while you can."
To have the one, final, last-ditch appeal at the convention to be the nominee? That appeal would be despite having lost maybe 11 or 12 of the last 14 or 15 primaries. I don’t buy it. Nobody fights a lost battle on the world stage unless it makes you look good. There is no upside for Hillary to stay and fight when she’s beat based on the cards that are showing.
To assauge a massive ego? Hillary has been campaigning against the bad Hillary vibe since before she declared her intentions. Does she really want to stay in, try all kinds of manipulations, prove herself to be as divisive as many say she is and maybe turn into Obama’s Ralph Nader? No. Ego says it’s the other way around. She doesn’t want to be the "female Bill" who goes down in the history books as the woman who guaranteed 12, maybe 16 years of consecutive GOP residents in the White House. She wants to be better than Bill.
So what’s left? What’s her angle? Personally, I don’t think she knows exactly, but from everything I've heard and read, she was a pretty good lawyer, and she's a politically apt Senator. So she knows how and when to cut a deal. Here are some options:
To be named Obama’s running mate: She’ll probably lead with this. Obama says no, and he says no because there are so many others who can actually help him out here. Number one in my book is Gen. Wes Clark (photo op: John McCain salutes Wes Clark!).
A cabinet post: Perhaps. There’s no risk of the New York Senate seat going into Republican hands if she vacates early. In fact, it’s a great way to get Andrew Cuomo going, setting him up to be a future New York Governor if Gov. Spitzer sees himself going for the White House in eight years (and believe me, he does). And no lightweight stuff for HRC – she becomes Secretary of State and gets the international experience that would set her up for a run in 2016, if Obama wins two terms, or even 2012 if he runs aground.
Senate majority leader: Maybe. Harry Reid strikes me as the kind of guy who will step aside if it’s for the good of the party. As majority leader, she gets to appoint the chairs, run the legislative agenda, and again, could perk up her "3 AM" image by taking Foreign Relations or Intelligence for herself. This is her worst-case, maybe, if she loses by more than a razor's edge in both the big states.
To impact the party platform: Yeah. Right. Anyone know what the platform was last year? This is for the John Edwards's of the world, not HRC. Besides, she's going to end up with enough pledged delegates that she will be a factor at the convention.
Remember the wild card here: Al Gore. We all know that Gore is not going to support Hillary if she can’t win a majority of pledged delegates, not after his being elected by the People and tossed out by the Court. We also know that Gore is the senior statesman of the Democratic Party. He’s been quiet during the primary, but after Tuesday, my guess is he’s going to be on the phone, brokering a deal, then on stage with the two candidates when one gracefully exits, and we'll see the fruits of his labors in 2009.
Gore will endorse, and if Obama wins one (or both) of Texas or Ohio Tuesday, he will endorse Obama.
But not without a lot of really important conversations first.