At least I didn't use the hated "C word," tempted though I was. I'll give you that much this time around. In this diary, I will call you "Obama Enthusiasts" and hope that will make you happy. My message is this: When are you going to take "Yes" for an answer and start planning for the General Election instead of contributing to Democratic disunity?
Let's review the numbers. You can look here and here for the calculators.
The Primary Math Heavily Favors Obama
Currently, Obama is 157 pledged delegates ahead, with 53% of the total. He's 722,000 votes ahead in the popular vote, with 51% of the total. FL and MI are out of the mix because they didn't comply with party rules; at the end of the day, their delegations will be seated in some form but not in a way that will change the delegate balance determined by the eligible contests.
Now, look at the states ahead. Just for grins, be extremely generous to Clinton: Give her 60% in PA, IN, KY, WV, PR, and Guam, and hold Obama to 55% in NC, OR, SD, MT. And then allocate FL and MI on a 60%-40% split for her. Do that, and Obama still winds up with a lead of 1,796 pledged delegates to her 1,753 -- or 42 pledged delegates.
Given such a scenario, which bends way over backwards to give Clinton many more delegates than she's ever going to actually get, do you actually think the superdelegates are going to overrule these results and hand her the nomination?
There are two scenarios in which this might happen, and both of them are far-fetched.
One is if Obama is caught in bed with the proverbial dead girl or live boy. Some enormous scandal, one much bigger than his pastor's remarks, that makes his candidacy clearly untenable. I think the chances of this happening are infinitesmal.
If the Clinton campaign had this sort of ammo, I think they'd have used it by now. If they still have it, I hope they shoot that missile before Pennsylvania. As terrible as it would be, I'd much rather have the bad news out there in the primaries, wouldn't you?
The other disaster scenario for Obama is an internal Democratic Party meltdown. In such a case, Clinton might try to position herself as the experienced voice of stability. Now, I think it would be the Hail Mary pass from hell, but I could imagine it happening.
The Obama camp cannot control Door #1, but they can have a lot of influence on Door #2. The way to avoid it is to simply not take the bait that keeps being tossed out there by the Clinton campaign. The candidate himself, and his campaign, have been playing it cool. But his supporters, including the "Kos" of "Daily Kos," have been beating the war drums all the way through. Whether they know it or not, they are playing Clinton's game.
As long as Door #1 and Door #2 are avoided, I think it's all over but the shouting. I happen to think that Clinton ought to get out. The longer she stays in, the more likely she is to look desperate to the point of self-parody. That said, I think to say she "doesn't care" about the Democratic Party is beyond absurd. It risks opening Door #2.
The General Election Math
Start with a look at the last electoral map, and then think about where Obama's minister's remarks are going to be on ongoing issue.
I say those states are WI, MI, and PA. Together that's 48 electoral votes.
Now, look at his strength: West of the Mississippi River. I think Obama has a very good chance of picking up IA, CO, NM, and NV. That's a total of 26 electoral votes.
If Obama holds the three risky states and picks up the four opportunity states, it's 279 for Obama to 259 for McCain. Lose PA or MI, and McCain wins. Lose WI, and it's tied. However, I think if Obama loses any of the risky states, he'll also fail to pick up IA, and if he fails to pick up IA he'll lose one of his risky states.
I say this because I think IA is similar enough to the risky states, especially WI, so be virtually interchangeable. (A side note: There's a one-vote discrepancy between the electoral map and the totals because, in 2004, one elector in MN votes for Edwards for president rather than Gore. This time around, I presume the equivalent won't happen.)
A Very Close Election
As far as I'm concerned, the Democratic Party could nominate a cucumber and a carrot and I'd vote for it. But the rest of the country has diverged from my wisdom often enough that I'm forced to be more realistic.
One sign that this could easily be a McCain year is that, in Congress, this is shaping up as a massive Democratic year. There's a reasonably good chance that the Democrats could gain 9 Senate seats, which of course will become 8 seats after Lieberman switches parties. In the House, I wouldn't be surprised to see a gain of at least 25 seats, and maybe more.
Recent history suggests that U.S. voters tend to favor divided government. That's why I think that McCain, at least in the abstract and before any campaigning begins, could be a formidable candidate.
Democrats: Do You Want Victory or Martyrdom?
I prefer victory myself. We are about to find out about the party at large, because to win the election, the following conditions will be essential:
- Party unity and discipline, for a change
- Broadening of the Obama campaign beyond his current base of blacks and liberal whites -- in particular, to working-class whites, and to Latinos whose support will be essential to win Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania
- Keeping the black church well behind the scenes
All of these requirements will test the maturity and commitment of Democratic activists. Frankly, I think #3 will be the easiest. Why? I think black voters are going to be in a mood to crawl across broken glass for Barack Obama. If it means low-keying it while organizing the mother of all turnouts, I think that's one check that Obama will be able to take to the bank and cash.
This makes #1 and #2 the tougher issues. I might suggest that, to start, the Obama enthusiasts start preparing to put a cork in it with the crapola about Hillary Clinton being the devil incarnate. Not only does it risk Door #2 in the primaries -- a party meltdown -- but it endangers the general election in a very real way.
In essence, take YES for an answer. Unless an electoral asteroid should land in the next couple months (an event beyond anyone's control), Obama will be the Democratic nominee. Smart people who want to see a Democrat win the presidency in 2008 will start looking for ways to build bridges. "Kos," that includes you.