Ohio is Lost. The Blue Collar voter in Ohio is giving Hillary room to breathe... I won't speculate on why, it's just a fact. The GOTV in Ohio should prevent Hillary however from the necessary 65%-35% victory that would give her the delegates needed, so it's a hallow victory if anything.
Rhode Island is not much to sing about.
Vermont could surprise the Obama Team and prove to be quite a Firewall...
However, all of your efforts as an Obama Volunteer should be focused squarely on our opportunity, Texas!
Update: New Texas SUSA Numbers, Obama +1
Barack's Schedule Today outlines where his campaign sees his greatest opportunity. In Houston tonight there will be a final rally to get everyone pumped for an extremely arduous day tomorrow... just so you know, my schedule in precinct 711 will be as follows:
5:30am: Set Visibility signs at my polls
6:00am: Arrive at poll location to set signs and bring coffee to poll workers
7:00am: Visibility Coordinator Canvasing Voters about the Texas Two Step
All Day
5:30pm: Stage our team and begin organizing for Caucus as others arrive to canvas the lines
7:00pm: Caucus and hopefully be the Precinct Convention Chair for Precinct 711 if we have the votes to fill the roles.
We're expecting extreme turn out. The Media in Texas has been brilliant, however getting over the hump has been arduous. Texas is notoriously tricky being a heavily republican state. I think the Obama campaign made mistakes in initially placing too much personelle in Ohio, all available hands should have been dispatched to Texas which had a natural advantage from the start. Too many field coordinators have been pulling double duties as event coordinators and as such, entire cities such as Katy Texas have essentially zero ground game, outside National Phonebankers... and there is no way to know how or where those phones are directed.
Because of the way the Delegates are apportioned in the 31 Senate District Elections, it's very likely that however the vote breaks down, whether its 55-45 Hillary or Obama, the night will be a rough split on pledged delegates, and it'll all come down to the Caucus.
We're playing for a Tie in Texas. Because it's the Last Latino Stronghold and Largest Delegate Prize remaining, if we Tie in the Primary and win narrowly to large in the Caucus, a Victory in Texas, regardless of the Beauty Contest Total Vote Count, will effectively end Hillary's campaign, though expect her to go on unless we see a Barrage of Super Delegates come out in the ensuing weeks; though a sizable Ohio victory as tipped by today's polls could keep that at bay for a few weeks.
Am I worried? Not really and here's why you shouldn't be either:
- Barack Obama's GOTV Ground Organization will benefit come the General Election if it's given 7 weeks to mobilize and organize Pennsylvania. Winning PA is ESSENTIAL in November, so taking the campaign and investing in the infrastructure to build the campaign in a battle ground state is a GOOD THING
- Hillary Clinton has Nothing Left in her Kitchen Sink. Everything that is known or will be known has been brought out. The 7 weeks for PA, which most likely will result in a Draw like Texas, won't "Hurt" Obama because it'll give the country more time to learn about his issues and his plans, and it'll keep the oxygen out of McCain's crowds and in the Dem Primaries.
- We might benefit from a Fall Back. I hate to say it, but assume the worse, assume a hum-dinger of a charge comes out of Rezko's trial, something no one saw coming, something that could sink Obama on Ethics, then this Obama maniac kool aid drinking Liberal from Texas won't freak out because we still have Hillary to fall back on... this is a very low probability given the 255 articles published on Rezko, but that said, you must always allow for a back door exit, and 7 weeks during with the Trial is waged won't destroy Obama unless dirt surfaces, and should it happen, having a fall back isn't a bad thing.
- The longer this process goes on, the more Barack Grows and Matures as a candidate. Honestly giving him 7 more weeks to hone his message, develop his campaign and extend the effort isn't a hideous proposition.
- Pennsylvania won't matter so much afterall. Given the Delegate Landscape post March 4th and the States Remaining, barring a #3 scenario, Hillary won't get the delegates needed under any real scenario should Texas Tie tomorrow, even if this goes through Puerto Rico. Hillary Claims she's just getting warmed up, but if Obama enters Denver +1 Delegate, he'll get the Nomination. The Super Delegates won't cross the Voters, unless a #3 level issue.
SO, from Texas, I just want to let you know that you have one roll tonight: CALL TEXAS
A Tie in Texas on Delegates is a victory we need, and allowing the Campaign to move on to Pennsylvania is a challenge with Benefits. Don't fear losing Ohio, Don't fear letting this continue, it will only in the end of a long long campaign season benefit Barack Obama to continue his growth as a candidate and in the end Strengthen our party.
Brace yourself for the potential loses now, and you'll have the moral to keep up the good fight as this battle really won't end as easily as any of us hoped... and that in the end I think is a Net-Plus.