I know HRC may have had a favorable news cycle today. But Obama came from all the way back, over 20 points back just two weeks ago...All of this MO is not stopping tomorrow. Whatever got us here will carry us forward. Flip down under the thing...
What I know:
- Obama outperforms polls - He will do the same tomorrow.
- Obama's voters: new voters and young voters are not in the models being used. They were not there in 2004, so many polls are not accounting for them
- Obama AA voters are being underestimated every time. For example in 2004, 21% of the voters in TX were AA, polling models are using 22% estimates this time around. Are you kidding me? I am predicting 30%!
- Obama's ground game is far better than Clinton's EVERYWHERE. This is usually good for an additional 2-3% on election day.
- Obama wins the delgate race unless you think she can beat him by 10-15% in all four states.
- Obama is coming on very strong in RI. This was not expected at all just 48 hours ago. He may even win it all together.
- Obama's early voters showed up. He is performing way stronger than anticipated in white and very red areas where she usually does well. This is based on actual votes counted, not a projection.
- People have known HRC for years, she is this close in the polls BECAUSE people decided she is not their choice. She has not gained big in any poll that I have seen, he came from way way back to the high forties. Point is: Whoever decided NOT to vote for her longtime ago, is for sure voting for him tomorrow.
- Democrats know she played dirty the past few days...Nobody wants the circus back in town. The Clintons will be rejected, undecideds will move his way.
- Enough senior folks in the party have spoken out about putting an end to the madness, people will make sure it is over tomorrow night!