All coffee served will be virtual :-) But the money is real, I'm now including FEC reports
Continuing through the alphabet.
Oregon has 5 representatives: 4 Democrats and 1 Republican
Filing deadline was March 11, primary is May 20
Pennsylvania has 19 representatives: 11 Democrats and 8 Republicans
Filing deadline was Feb 12, primary is April 22
Rhode Island has 2 districts, both Democrats
Filing deadline is June 25, primary Sept 9
District: OR-01
Location Northwestern OR, bordering WA and the Pacific, including parts of Portland and its suburbs
Representative David Wu (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 63-34
2004 margin 58-38
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Notes on opponents In 2004, Goli Ameri raised $2.3 million to Wu's $2.7 million. In 2006, Derrick Kitts raised about $140K to Wu's $1.1 million
Current opponents Wu is facing a primary, and then either Stephen Brodhead, CW Chappell or Joel Haugan. No fundraising reports from anyone but Wu, who has $600K COH
Demographics 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)
Assessment Safe
District: OR-02
Location The eastern 2/3rds of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA
Representative Greg Walden (R)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 67-30
2004 margin 72-26
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents Noah Lemas (no website, no fundraising report)
Demographics 15th most veterans (17.3%), 6th fewest Blacks (0.4%)
Assessment Long shot
District: OR-03
Location Northern OR, bordering WA, includes Portland and suburbs, and Mt Hood.
Representative Earl Blumenauer (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 73-23
2004 margin 71-24
Bush margin 2004 33-67
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents A primary and then Delia Lopez. No fundraising reports from anyone but Blumenauer, who has $465 COH
Demographics 60th most Democratic
Assessment safe
District: OR-04
Location Southwestern OR, bordering CA and the Pacific, including Eugene
Representative Peter DeFazio (D)
First elected 1986
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 49-49
Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Feldekamp raised $600 K to DeFazio's $900K; he ran again in 2006, raising $500K to DeFazio's $750K
Current opponents None. DeFazio has $360K COH....he should share
Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 24th most veterans (16.9%)
Assessment Free ride.
District: OR-05
Location A T-shaped district in northwestern OR.
Representative Darlene Hooley (D) retiring
First elected 1996
2006 margin 54-43
2004 margin 53-44
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Zupancic raised $1.3 million to Hooley's $2 million; in 2006, Mike Erickson raised $1.8 million to Hooley's $2 million
Current opponents Democrats:
Kurt Schrader
Andrew Foster (no web site), Nancy Moran (no web site),
Steve Marks
Richard Nathe (no website) and a bunch of Republicans. No fundraising reports from the Dems
Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)
Assessment Seems vulnerable, but I don't know
District: PA-01
Location Some of Philadelphia and some suburbs
Representative Robert Brady (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 86-13
Bush margin 2004 15-84
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Mike Muhammad. No fundraising report. Brady has $678,000 COH, he should share
Demographics 14th lowest income (median = $28K), 52nd fewest Whites (33%), 27th most Blacks (45%), 8th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: PA-02
Location Philadelphia and suburbs
Representative Chaka Fattah
First elected 1994
2006 margin 89-9
2004 margin 88-12
Bush margin 2004 12-87
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents Mike Livingston, no fundraising report. Fattah has $183 COH.
Demographics 32nd lowest income (median = $31K), 46th fewest Whites (29.9%), 7th most Blacks (60.7%), 4th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: PA-03
Location Northwestern PA, bordering Lake Erie, OH, and NY
Representative Phil English (R)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 54-42
2004 margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Notes on opponents Steven Porter ran in 2004 and 2006, raising about $200K each time, English had about $1.5 million each time
Current opponents Kyle Foust $55K raised, $25K COH
Mike Waltner $100K raised, $65K COH
Tom Myers $140K raised, $75K COH
Kathy Dahlkemper $154K raised, $117K COH;
Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the 50th most vulnerable Republican seat. On the DCCC list. The fact that all those Democrats are running is a sign that English is vulnerable.
District: PA-04
Location Western PA, bordering OH
Representative Jason Altmire (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 52-48
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Notes on opponents In 2006, Altmire ousted Melissa Hart, raising $1.1 million, about half what she raised
Current opponents Hart is back for a rematch, but she has a primary challenger (Ron Francis). Francis has raised $160K, $113 COH; Hart has raised $385K, $332K COH.
Altmire has raised $1.1 million, $911K COH
Demographics 21st most White (94.3%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the ninth most vulnerable Democratic seat, and it's on the DCCC list. While not safe, Altmire beat Hart, with less money than her, when she was an incumbent. Now he's got more money, and he's the incumbent. I don't think it's quite as vulnerable as Superribbie.
District: PA-05
Location Northern PA, bordering NY.
Representative John Peterson (R) retiring
First elected 1996
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 88-12 against a Libertarian
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Notes on opponents In 2006, Don Hilliard raised no money and still got 40%
Current opponents Democrats:
Mark McCracken
Bill Cahir
Rick Vilello
Lots of Republicans. No fundraising numbers from anyone
Demographics 32nd most rural (54%), 6th lowest income (median = $33K), 6th most Whites (96%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%), 99th most Republican
Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it as the 58th most vulnerable Republican seat. The fact that we are competitive here, in a naturally Republican seat, is a really good sign
District: PA-06
Location West of Philadelphia
Representative Jim Gerlach (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin 51-49
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Notes on opponents Lois Murphy ran in 2004 and 2006, in 2004, she raised $1.9 million to Gerlach's $2.2 million; in 2006, she raised $4 million to his $3.5 million
Current opponents Bob Roggio no funding info. Gerlach has $500K COH
Demographics 70th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment Somewhat vulnerable, Superribbie ranks it as the 22nd most vulnerable Republican seat. On the DCCC list. Not sure why Roggio has no FEC numbers
District: PA-07
Location Southeastern PA, bordering DE, including King of Prussia
Representative Joe Sestak (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 56-44
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Notes on opponents In 2006, Sestak ousted Curt Weldon; each raised about $3 million
Current opponents Curt Weldon has $90K COH, Craig Williams, no info. Sestak has $1.7 million COH
Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the 36th most vulnerable Democratic seat; Sestak's formidable fundraising advantage makes it a little less vulnerable, I think
District: PA-08
Location The southeast corner of PA, bordering NJ
Representative Patrick Murphy (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 1418 votes out of 250,000
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Notes on opponents In 2006, Murphy ousted Mike Fitzpatrick; Murphy raised $2.4 million to Fitzpatrick's $3.2
Current opponents Thomas Manion (no funding info); Murphy has $1.2 million COH
Demographics 44th highest income (median = $59K),
Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the 22nd most vulnerable Democratic seat. On the DCCC list. Another potentially close race, where we appear to have a huge lead in fundraising
District: PA-09
Location The central part of southern PA, bordering MD and a little of WV
Representative Bill Shuster (R)
First elected 2001
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 69-30
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents Tony Barr who got 40% with almost no money in 2006, is running again. No funding info on Barr, but Shuster has only $188K COH, not much for an incumbent at this stage
Demographics 19th most rural (59.5%), 3rd most White (96.4%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%), 2nd fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino, 42nd most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: PA-10
Location Northeastern PA, bordering NY and NJ
Representative Christopher Carney (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 53-47
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Notes on opponents In 2006, Carney ousted Don Sherwood, spending $1.5 million to Sherwood's $3 million
Current opponents Dan Meuser has raised the most of several Republicans: He has $398 COH; Chris Hackett has $386K; others much less. Carney has $766K.
Demographics 27th most rural (55.4%), 9th most White (95.5%), 71st least Black (1.9%), 51st least Latinos (1.4%)
Assessment Very vulnerable Superribbie ranks it as the 5th most vulnerable Democratic seat. On the DCCC list.
District: PA-11
Location Eastern PA, including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre
Representative Paul Kanjorski (D)
First elected 1984
2006 margin 72-28
2004 margin 94-6 against a minor party
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Lou Barletta has $851 COH and $300K in debt (hmmmm....). Kanjorski has $1.5 million. He should share
Demographics 97th lowest income (median = $35K)
Assessment Safe
District: PA-12
Location An odd, thready district in southwest PA
Representative John Murtha (D)
First elected 1974
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin unopposed
Bush margin 2004 49-51
Notes on opponents In 2006, Diana Irey raised $850K to Murtha's $3.2 million.
Current opponents William Russell has $25K COH, Murtha has $529K
Demographics 32nd poorest (median income = $31K), 16th most Whites (95.0%). 3rd fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Safe
District: PA-13
Location Suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia
Representative Allyson Schwartz (D)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 56-44
Bush margin 2004 43-56
Notes on opponents In 2004, this seat was open and Schwartz beat Melissa Brown, raising $4.5 million to Brown's $1.9 million. In 2006, Raj Bhakta raised $400K to Schwartz' $2.2 million
Current opponents Marina Kats has no fundraising report. Schwartz has $1.6 million COH, she should share
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: PA-14
Location Pittsburgh and suburbs
Representative Mike Doyle (D)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 90-10 (against a Green)
2004 margin unopposed
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents No Republican; Doyle has $400K COH
Demographics 26th lowest income (median = $30K), 71st most Blacks (22.5%), 41st most Democratic
Assessment Free ride
District: PA-15
Location Central part of eastern NJ, including Allentown and Bethlehem, bordering NJ
Representative Charlie Dent (R)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 54-43
2004 margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 Kerry won by 786 votes out of 300,000
Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat, and Dent beat Joe Driscoll, each spending about $2 million. In 2006, Charles Dertinger raised little
Current opponents Sam Bennett has raised $194K and has $94K COH; Dent has over $500K COH. Bennett is one of my favorite candidates.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it as the 32nd most vulnerable Republican seat.
District: PA-16
Location Southeastern PA, centering on Lancaster
Representative Joe Pitts (R)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 57-40
2004 margin 64-34
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Notes on opponents Lois Herr ran both times, raising about $80K the first time and $300K in 2006; Pitts raised just under $500K the first time and just over that in 2006
Current opponents Bruce Slater has just $7K COH, to Pitts' $175K
Demographics 86th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: PA-17
Location South and east of central PA, including Harrisburg
Representative Tim Holden (D)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Notes on opponents In 2004, Scott Paterno raised $1 million to Holden's $1.6 million. The 2006 opponent raised little
Current opponents Toni Gilhooley has $31K COH to Holden's $780K
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: PA-18
Location Suburbs of Pittsburgh
Representative Tim Murphy (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 63-37
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Notes on opponents Each raised about $100K, Murphy raised over $1 million each time
Current opponents Beth Hafer $106K raised, $42K COH
Brien Wall $35K raised, $16K COH
Steve O'Donnell $260K raised, $203K COH
Daniel Wholey $56K raised, $45K COH, but per comments, he has dropped out
Demographics 10th most Whites (95.4%), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it as the 60th most vulnerable Republican seat. On the DCCC list
District: PA-19
Location Southern PA including Gettysburg
Representative Todd Platts (R)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 64-33
2004 margin 91-4 against a Green
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Notes on opponents Phillip Avillo raised $175K against Platts' $375K
Current opponents Phil Avilo, no fundraising info
Demographics 68th most Whites (92.2%)
Assessment Long shot
District: RI-01
Location Northern and eastern RI, bordering MA and CT
Representative Patrick Kennedy (D)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 64-36
Bush margin 2004 36-62
Notes on opponents In 2004, David Rogers and Kennedy each raised about $2 million. In 2006, his opponent raised little
Current opponents None; Kennedy has $700K COH, he should share
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment safe
District: RI-02
Location Most of the state
Representative Jim Langevin (D)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 73-27 against an Independent
2004 margin 75-21
Bush margin 2004 41-57
Notes on opponents No money for Republicans
Current opponents None
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe