To be honest, nobody drops out for the good of the party. Candidates leave for one of two reasons: they run out of support or they run out of money. Dodd, Biden and Richardson left due to lack of support. Dodd had money problems too (I donated some money to retire his campaign debt after he endorsed Obama). Edwards did very poorly in Nevada (4%), lost his home state (South Carolina) and probably had little money left at the end.
Typically, when it is clear that one candidate has a virtual lock on the nomination (as Obama has), the money for the other candidate dries up overnight. However, this has not happened to Hillary. Why? She has gone to absurd lengths to con her own supporters into thinking she has a great chance to win the nomination.
Day by day this con is being exposed and, I think, one day soon, enough of Hillary's supporters will realize that they have been conned that Hillary will not have enough money to continue. And once this happens, Hillary will have to leave the race.
As we were reminded this week with the Bosnia Sniperfire incident, Hillary has a difficult relationship with the truth. Hillary's willingness to lie has helped her to stay in the race in one way. She has told flat out lies to her supporters to keep the donations flowing. For example, she now has a section up on her website that claims that the pundits are misleading the public and she gives them a dose of Hillary's version of "reality." Here are two examples (and please note that in the block quote the phrase "The Reality" refers to what Hillary claims the truth is):
THE PUNDITS
Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the popular vote; Florida and Michigan don’t count; therefore the race is essentially over
THE REALITY
The popular vote is virtually tied; half of Barack Obama's narrow vote advantage is from his home state; and his lead excludes Florida and Michigan
THE PUNDITS
Once the remaining states vote, Barack Obama will be substantially ahead in delegates and votes and the race will be over
THE REALITY
The race is a dead heat now and no one knows where things will end up after millions of remaining voters in the upcoming states make their choice
These two statements are all flat out lies. Let's look at the first claim: The fact is the that the DNC says that Michigan and Florida do not count. And isn't absurd to count Michigan where Obama was not even on the ballot. Second one is a lie too. It is not a dead heat, Obama is ahead by at least 150 pledged delegates. There are a number of other gems on Hillary's website.
Is this lying effective? I think for the most hardcore supporter it is effective. Hillary's hardest core supporters want to believe that she can do it.
However, I think there are signs that her support at the fringes is fading. For example, in the Gallup tracking poll, Obama now has 7% lead after recently being behind by as much as 7% during the peak of the Wright dustup. National polls do matter in one way: they give some indication of money raising strength of a candidate. While somebody in California cannot vote, a person in California can give money.
And the challenges to Hillary's story that she can win will increase day by day. This is a dam that Hillary and Bill cannot hold back. And as these challenges increases and as more and more important Democrats call for the end of the race, Hillary's support will drop off bit by bit. I have never seen her below 38% in any national poll at any point in time. But I bet she goes below 38% before Pennsylvania votes. And while her number may go up a bit if she wins in the Keystone state, I think it is quite possible that we may have just seen the last poll with Hillary in the lead.
As the reality of Hillary's true position is revealed to her supporters, her money is going to dwindle. Slowly at first, more rapidly at the end.
Having no money kills a campaign because you cannot use paid media and once you can no longer use paid media, you will lose. You lose even in states that are favorable from a demographic standpoint. What would have happened in Ohio if only Obama could air ads?
What You Can Do Erode Hillary's Support and Attack Her Source of Funds
I think the most effective line I have found is to tell Hillary's supporter that you cannot trust her. You might want to try to email them this video of Tuzlagate. (I like Jed's mix better, but the CBS video comes off as more objective.). Tuzlagate hits Clinton hard on her claim to superior experience. And it also points up that one of her weaknesses as a candidate is that some voters will never trust her.
Your goal here is not to flip the person into an Obama supporter. Your goal is discourage the person to give any more money to Hillary. Without money, Hillary will have to drop out.