Why did Obama lose Texas and Ohio? I think those who are serious Obama supporters must think long and hard about that question. Last night was a chance to end the campaign, and force the Clinton dynasty to crumble. But it didn't happen.
I think there are three reasons: fear, racism, and the old democratic machine.
More after the jump
- fear: Hillary played the fear card very effectively, and Obama's response that this was just a fear card was not good enough.
- racism: A significant number of Ohio voters said race was a factor in their decision. This is an issue that has arisen with traditional blue-collar democratic voters before. Anyone who has been in big city ward politics and experienced a transition from white elected leaders to black elected leaders, whether in Chicago, Massachusetts, Philadelphia or elsewhere knows that there is a period of time when racism is rampant -- and this has to be vanquished for the black elected leaders to win. It does not have to be eliminated -- black majorities are powerful things- but it has to be confronted. Obama will need to confront the issue of race more directly. In this case, Hillary's muslim waffling was a wink/nod to racism and bigotry, in my opinion.
- Traditional democratic machines: Obama is the candidate of the new democrats- the anti-Washington, anti-triangulation, anti-business as usual dems. In areas where dems are more marginalized - these entrenched elites have less power. In areas where dems are entrenched - these political machines help turn out votes for hillary. Obama has to find a way to neutralize this advantage.
What can be done:
Fear: Obama must counter fear with hope: not by calling it fear, but by leading by example. He must constantly repeat that the threat of terrorism unites Americans; he must pull patriotic images of unity, and he must attack those who use fear as political opportunists who will sacrifice the safety of the nation (strength, unity) to their own ambition (Bush and Hillary Clinton). Fear must be named as the cause of weakness- and that weakness must be illustrated: debt, broken military, contractors run amok, etc-- all the consequences of fear.
Racism: Here Obama must build a new generation coalition - which is well on the way to happening. The younger generation must see Obama's campaign as their moment to step away from the racist divisions of the past. There will always be 65 year old archie bunkers - to bring up a character from 35 years ago -- but there are far more young Will.i.ams. Racism must be confronted by name.
Machine: Machines exist to win and get patronage. They change when they fear losing. Here, with more time, Obama can simply make inroads-- he does not need an absolute majority of the old machines-- just to neutralize them enough so that the new forces come into the majority.
He will have to attack Hillary on substance: Tax returns, the money for the Clinton Library and whether that will taint the White House, her lack of security clearance while in the white house, the fact that she is a hard worker, but has only held elective office herself for six years.
This can be won- but we need to stop wishful thinking.