Ahhh, primary season . . An open Congressional seat. An historic and inspiring close presidential primary race. Does it get any better for a political junkie in Pennsylvania? I think not.
I'm going to do another "comparing the 3 Dems on Issue x" diary tomorrow, but right now I want to talk about those pesky Republicans, among other things. I'm really beginning to think, yes we can change my R+10 district blue this year. It is a perfect storm of bad Republican candidates, good Democratic candidates, and excitement over the presidential race. More on the flip . .
First reason to be hopeful about flipping this seat our way: The Republicans. There are 9 of them, all pretty much lightweights. I've had a little blog run-in with one of them already, ha ha. The one many of us are rooting for is Matt Shaner. Why root for Shaner, you ask? Well, he's a rich, young Santorum-wannabe college drop-out who has a little incident in his past involving drunk driving, hit and run, and hiding from the police at his front door while calling a family friend who also happens to be the Republican district attorney. He never had a breathalizer test, and so never faced DUI charges. It's the perfect combination of silver spoon entitlement and sleaze. mmmm Tasty.
Today's Centre Daily Times reveals that Shaner has triggered the FEC's little-used "Millionaire's Amendment" because he has already spent more than $350,000 of his own money on the race.
Federal law requires self-financed candidates to notify their opponents when they exceed $350,000 in spending because the opponents then become eligible to accept contributions from individuals three times higher than the typical limit, $2,300.
Shaner, 28, a State College-based real estate developer, filed the required Federal Election Commission report last Friday and sent copies to opponents in accordance with the FEC’s so-called Millionaire’s Amendment.
The amendment was added to campaign finance laws in 2002 and first took effect in the 2004 elections. In the more than 870 U.S. House elections since then, including special elections, only 59 candidates have filed the form to indicate they’ve spent personal funds beyond the Millionaire’s Amendment threshold, FEC spokesman Bob Biersack said.
Shaner is spending all the money on TV (Ack and Double Ack!)and radio ads in this huge sprawling district. More from the article:
The Shaner spending report covers 29 days from Jan. 29 to Feb. 27. A course of spending at the same rate until the April 22 primary — more than $12,000 a day — would amount to a total campaign expense of more than $1 million.
An analysis of the 2006 congressional elections by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics found that the average of cost of winning a U.S. House seat was about $1.3 million, including the full cycle of primary and general election campaigns. The analysis also found that in 93 percent of the U.S. House races, the candidate who spent the most money won.
The rest of the article gets quotes from the other Republicans ragging on him. Good stuff. This seems like a waste of money to me, but I do not understand the Republican brain. Anyone paying attention in Centre County knows about Shaner's little incident. Could Republicans be dumb enough to put up such a flawed candidate? Maybe he's trying to win over Republicans from other parts of the district because they might not know about the hit and run.
Second reason to be hopeful about flipping this seat our way: The Democrats. We have 3 really good candidates. I'm having a hard time choosing myself. I hear one of them, Mayor Rick Vilello, will be liveblogging here at 7 tonight. So tomorrow I'll do another one of my issues diaries comparing these 3 guys via statements on their websites, blogs, and press coverage.
Third reason to be hopeful about flipping this seat our way: The presidential primary. Obama volunteers have already been registering new voters, but that will really pick up now as both campaigns become more active. Also, a number of people (myself included) are switching from Independent so they can vote in one of the primaries. Guess which Party is benefitting? Just look at the numbers:
In Bellefonte on Wednesday, new voter data released by Centre County showed that Democratic registrations have swelled by 832 new voters since early January, compared with an increase of 129 Republicans.
The shift, apparently for the first time in recent history, reduced the Republican share of the registered voters to below 44 percent, however slightly, and increased the Democratic share to almost 39 percent. The ranks of no-affiliation voters decreased by only 103.
And that's just for Centre County. I know there are 2 upcoming Obama-related registration drives in Clearfield County also. As of early January, Republicans had a 45,000 registration advantage throughout the 17-county district. I think strong Dem candidates, both Congressional and Presidential, plus weak Republican candidates, will really drive high turn-out among Dems and Dem-leaners.