Looking at the SUSA state-by-state head-to-heads today is interesting in itself, but someone brought up a good point: this is just a registered voters poll, since it's impossible to tell who's voting 8 months out.
We've seen the Democratic primaries outpull the GOP ones consistently, even when there were two real races. So, what if Dems produce more voters? And, what if the worst happens and it turns around?
A simple analysis below the fold.
I took their data, and basically said, "okay, so what happens if we move the result n points one way?" and looked at the EV totals. Here's what happens.
Base EVs (remember, 270 is a win):
Clinton 276, Obama 280
So... who makes hay of a good opportunity?
+1: Clinton 305, Obama 295
+2: Clinton 315, Obama 344
+3: Clinton 315, Obama 371
+4: Clinton 315, Obama 382
+5: Clinton 333, Obama 403
And who gets hit by a bad result?
-1: Clinton 250, Obama 267
-2: Clinton 250, Obama 246
-3: Clinton 250, Obama 246
-4: Clinton 236, Obama 246
-5: Clinton 218, Obama 238
The resilience is roughly even, maybe a tiny edge to Obama. Just one point across the board turns winning into losing for both of them, but the good news is neither of them falls off that fast. This is good -- it won't be an across-the-board drop like this, and losing a close state could be made up elsewhere.
The opportunity result is fascinating though, and it supports something many Obama supporters have been saying: Clinton can win in a general election, but only Obama can win BIG.