I know, I know everyone is sick of this argument but I think I have a solution to the Florida/Michigan problem. I think if Obama proposes this, he will be closer to winning the nomination even though his lead will be cut and Hillary will have to accept or lose all credibility on the issue.
We are all aware of the problems of Florida/Michigan so I won't go into them. I will only say that one of my few hesitations in my confidence that Obama will be the Democratic nominee is my concern that Hillary will use the Florida/Michigan "disenfranchisement" b.s. to convince the superdelegates to override the pledged delegates. I think if Obama makes the following proposal, Hillary will have to take it or lose all credibility that she cares about the will of the voters. (I have my suspicions but will leave that for another post).
- As we all know everyone's numbers are a little different. I am using the most pro-Clinton numbers I found from a reputable source. The current pledged delegate count stands at Obama 1413, Clinton 1251. The numbers can be adjusted based on the actual count.
- Florida (185 pledged delegates) - The election results stand as is. Florida loses all superdelegates as a penalty for violating DNC rules. Pledged delegate count would be Obama 1480, Clinton 1356.
- Michigan (128 pledged delegates) - I am using the plan set out by Michigan Rep. Bart Stupak with minor tweaks. Stupak's proposal was to use the Michigan January election and the final popular vote of all states. See this CNN article, http://www.cnn.com/... for details. Anyway, I would accept that 83 delegates would be divided based on January election with 47 to Clinton and 36 to Obama. The difference is that I would also punish Michigan for violating DNC rules and strip it of all superdelegates. The remaining 45 pledged delegates would be decided based on percentage of delegates won in all states. (We all know we can't determine true popular vote because of the caucuses and everyone using popular vote as a criteria is discounting all caucus states). Anyway, the pledged delegate total would be Obama 1516, Clinton 1403 with 45 outstanding delegates from Michigan to be decided.
- The final part of the proposal would be that in exchange for counting these results even though "neither candidate" competed and Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan, Clinton would have to agree that the winner of the pledged delegate contest wins the nomination. No superdelegates. The magic number would be reduced to 1783.5. (It would actually be a little less because of pledged delegates that went to Edwards would reduce the total that either could reach.)
If Clinton agrees, then there is no more worry about Superdelegates, Florida/Michigan, big states theory or any other argument that might be espoused in the coming months.
If Clinton says no, then she is the one disenfranchising two states even though Obama is willing to take a 49 delegate cut in his lead. She is also making clear that she intends to override the will of the people.
Anyway, just my idea, what do you think?