Cross posted over at Swing State
Well this is pretty incredible news. Dubya's dad's old seat in the House has a history of being as reliably Publican as any of them. But the current holder of the seat, John Culberson, reliable crony, is in trouble like never before.
The Dem challenger, businessman Michael Skelly, had an incredible quarter for fundraising,
raising about $750,000 from individual donors without even tapping into his substantial personal wealth. Another Democratic operative said it could be the "best first quarter ever" for any House Democrat in his first filing period.
And the best part about it is that one of the reasons that this seat may just be in play is because of the redistricting plan of the bugman, Tom DeLay.
This could be awesome...
More details from the article on the flip.
Skelly has already handily outdistanced Culberson in fundraising — rare for a challenger — banking more than $402,000 in mid-February, according to his latest FEC filing.
"He actually likes to fundraise," said Skelly’s campaign manager, Bill Kelly. "He’s more than willing to do his part, and he’s going to put in a substantial amount of his own money. But he’s already done the hard part."
By contrast, Culberson reported only $82,200 in his campaign account in mid-February but claims to have worked over the past month to quickly refill his coffers. Culberson estimated he raised $250,000 in the past 45 days — largely in response to Skelly’s strong early fundraising and his ability to self-fund.
Here is a little background on our candidate for the seat:
But Democrats believe that Skelly’s business background fits in well with a fiscally conservative district that boasts one of the best-educated and most-affluent demographics in the Lone Star State. Skelly moved to Houston in 1999 to serve as the chief development officer for Horizon Energy, the country’s third-largest wind energy company.
And he has a good team in place as well:
And he has brought on board many Democratic operatives from Houston Mayor Bill White’s highly regarded political team.
The Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, in a poll conducted last December, found that Culberson enters his reelection campaign with some vulnerabilities.
Oh, and not only is the Publican incumbent not so popular in his district, as we all know, the Publican brand name is in shambles:
Culberson's net approval rating was surprisingly low for a solidly Republican district, with only 32 percent of respondents holding a favorable opinion and 23 percent viewing Culberson unfavorably. And in a head-to-head matchup against the little-known Skelly, Culberson held a 52 percent to 33 percent lead.
Even more striking, the Republican brand has taken a hit in the district, even though former President George H.W. Bush represented it for two terms. A 54 percent majority of districtwide voters disapprove of the current Bush’s performance in office.
The Publican incumbent just doesn't represent his constituents:
Kelly also argued that Culberson has been out of step with three key issues that greatly affect the local economy. Despite the presence of the sprawling Texas Medical Center as the largest employer in Houston, Culberson has been an ardent opponent of embryonic stem cell research, telling Politico it "unnecessarily created an atmosphere where human embryos would be created to be harvested like a crop of corn."
He was also one of only two Texas Republicans to oppose President Bush’s legislation expanding Medicare to include prescription drug coverage.
And the local Texas blogosphere has picked up on the candidacy, noting that while the DCCC has not added any candidates from Texas to its funding list:
Some Ds believe that Culberson is vulnerable. He deserves to be; he is a kosher ideologue (doesn't believe in bringing home the bacon). I was told this story: When asked by Houston business interests to help get federal money to plant trees along expressways, Culberson pulled out a pocket copy of the Constitution and said, Where in here does it say that the federal government can pay for trees?
This is how tidal waves happen. This is how you go from a 15 seat pick-up to a 40 seat pick-up.
This is Gov. Howard Dean's 50 state strategy in action.