This is a repsonse to part of Richard Saunders' post, Five Reasons Why Obama Shouldn't Be A Lock. Specifically, his points that "Big states are what win in November," and looking at electoral-vote.com to try to establish that Hillary is a stronger candidate in the general. These points bear responding to in more detail than would suit a reply on the thread. Hillary has a troublesome number, and that is 254. More after the jump...
I set up the Obama/McCain and Clinton/McCain matchups on electoral-vote.com in two separate tabs, placed at the same sport on the page so that switching tabs would instantly register the differences. I quickly noticed that the map is much redder in the Clinton/McCain matchup. I looked at the numbers and saw that things actually favor Obama a lot more than Clinton. Here's why:
McCain leads Obama 324-205 in electoral votes, with 9 undecided. The lead over Clinton is 304-203 with 31 undecided. This would seem to give Clinton a little bit of a better position in the race. But Obama is actually closer. A lot closer. To start with, I looked at the EV totals. There are 7 categories - Strong Dem, Weak Dem, Barely Dem, Tied, Barely GOP, Weak GOP, and Strong GOP. Strong means that the lead is solid, substantial, and not likely to erode. Weak means the candidate is ahead, but not too far outside of the margin of error. Barely means the candidate is ahead, but within the margin of error. Tied is, well, tied.
For Obama, the totals are: Strong Dem 142, Weak dem 33, Barely Dem 30, Tied 9, Barely GOP 141, Weak GOP 55, and Strong GOP 128.
For Clinton, the totals are: Strong Dem 74, Weak Dem 82, Barely Dem 47, Tied 31, Barely GOP 50, Weak GOP 110, Strong GOP 144.
What do these totals mean? Well, for starters, add up the strong + weak for both sides. For Obama, that adds up to 175 on the Dem side, and 183 on the GOP side. For Clinton, that adds up to 156 on the Dem side, and 254 on the GOP side. There's the number I was getting to - 254.
The 254 strong + weak GOP is a huge red flag for Clinton. The winner needs 270 EVs. Right here we are looking at McCain needing only to swing 16 EVs to win the election if he can hold his ground. Against Obama, however, he needs to swing 87 EVs over. That puts Obama in a far better position than Clinton.
What about the big states? This is also very daunting for Clinton. Her campaign has trumpeted her performance in the EV-heavy states as making her more electable in the general election. However, this is not the case. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey are in play with either candidate. (For this discussion, in-play means a "barely" state or tied.) Texas is in the weak GOP column with Clinton, but it is in play with Obama. Same goes for Florida & Wisconsin. The only states advantageous to Clinton are Ohio, which is in play for Clinton but weak GOP for Obama, Tennessee, which is in play for Clinton but solid GOP for Obama, and Massachussetts, which is in play for Obama but solid Dem for Clinton. California is in the weak Dem column for Clinton, however, it is solid Dem for Obama. McCain can make some big inroads in that state, so it's important to run up the score there and keep him well away from those 55 EVs.
Other states are key. These states are in play for Clinton, but solid or weak Dem for Obama - Washington, Iowa, Hawaii, and Connecticut. And these states are weak or even strong GOP for Clinton, but in play for Obama - Colorado, North Dakota, Nebraska, and New Hampshire. Oregon is weak GOP for Clinton but weak Dem for Obama.
If we rely on the "hey, let's just fight for the big states" strategy, we will be handing McCain a big advantage. Obama will force McCain to play defense in a lot of traditionally strong GOP states, expending money, manpower and resources. Do we really want this election to be another go around of fighting for Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, and Michigan while paying lip service to the rest of the country? That certainly hasn't helped us much over the past two elections.
Every electoral vote will be needed. And Obama puts a lot more of them into play than Clinton does.