The gossip-mongering in the national media this week about Condeleeza Rice and Mitt Romney as vice-presidential nominees for John McCain does nothing to obscure the fact that Tim Pawlenty will probably be McCain's choice on the Republican ticket.
Which here in Minnesota means a very, very tough campaign for the Democratic (DFL)ticket this Fall. Every poll of the state says the strong anti-war feelings and the larger antipathy towards the Republican party should make Minnesota a blue state in November.
But if Tim Pawlenty is nominated the Republican party in Minnesota will have its two top standard-bearers on the ballot, crowned by the spectacle of the Republican convention in the shadows of our state capitol.
It's going to be Paw's job to deliver Minnesota and Wisconsin for McCain. That means Norm the Weasel will also get extra support in a tight Senate race, not to mention the fat-cat 527 money that will flood into attack Democrats from Swift Boat Dementors.
Sheldon G. Adelson, the chairman of the Sands Hotel group in Las Vegas, is the Republican billionaire who has made it clear he will spend what it takes to fund Republican 527's to go after Obama and Franken, the two most likely candidates at the top of our ballot. He's behind the "Freedom Watch" television ads. We're going to see so many ads funded by Adelson this Fall we're going to think Fox picked up Freedom Watch as a regular series in its prime time line-up.
Maybe the ocean tides of presidential politics will swell large for the Democrats in the Fall, and the race between Obama and McCain will not be very close at all.
But if it's close, Minnesota will be in the center of a perfect storm---homeboy VP nominee, hotly-competitive senate race, Republican convention, tons of money pouring in from the parties and 527s.
So here's one thought: the 3rd CD race could be the most important ship in our DFL Armada, especially if Ashwin Madia is the nominee. A strong DFL candidate in CD3 could build a large swell for the Democratic ticket in a critical district for the Presidential race.
If suburban voters, especially in the second and third-tier suburbs in CD3 (and especially white males) can be tipped to the DFL ticket by a strong campaign from Madia this could be the difference state-wide in a very close Presidential or Senate election. Tim Walz's race in CD1 could also add to this swing in independent voters.
Which means the ground game in Minnesota, especially in CD3 and CD1 will be critical to winning the state up and down the ticket.
And assuming everyone turns out the faithful everywhere else, the turn-out in the 3rd and 1st CD races could be what toss the ultimate victory to the DFL
Which would mean a lot to not only Senator Al Franken, but probably to President Barack Obama as well.
MNBlue.com