How, you ask? Is it because of allegations that Hillary Clinton has been openly railing against the "activist base" of the Democratic party? Is it because of reports that some of Clinton's volunteers openly hate Obama and his supporters? Is it because Obama has an almost 150 delegate lead with only a handful of contests to go? Is it because Obama keeps getting the support and backing of more and more superdelegates?
It's no one of these things.
It's all of them.
The Associated Press, among others, is finally starting to pick up what reality is laying down (emphasis mine):
Time is running out on Hillary Rodham Clinton, the long-ago front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination who now trails Barack Obama in delegates, states won and popular votes.
Compounding Clinton's woes, Obama appears on track to finish the primary campaign fewer than 100 delegates shy of the 2,025 needed to win.
Clinton argues to Democratic officialdom that other factors should count, an unprovable assertion that she's more electable chief among them. But she undercut her own claim in Wednesday night's debate, answering "yes, yes, yes" when asked whether her rival could win the White House.
There's little if any public evidence the party's elite, the superdelegates who will attend the convention, are buying her argument anyway.
It's not just the superdelegates. Fewer and fewer people in general are buying her argument anymore, as evidenced by the the steady growth of Obama's national lead in polling. Just like almost every other strategy the Clinton campaign has tried -- aside from the tears in New Hampshire -- her ratcheting up of negative campaigning is causing people who once supported her to flee her ranks. At this point Pennsylvania is really too close to call, and Clinton needs a double-digit win to even have the illusion of staying competitive. All of this, coupled with renewed pressure from Howard Dean for the superdelegates to publicly declare allegiances and the fact that Obama has been picking them up at a far, far greater rate than Clinton...
This campaign is almost over. I do not say this to gloat -- I am an Obama supporter, yes, but one who does not agree with all of his policies -- I say it as someone who is attempting to objectively gauge the state of the race. I can see it going one of three ways. I will rank them in order of likelihood.
1. Clinton squeaks out a slim victory in Pennsylvania. Calls for her to get out of the race amplify but she resists. Superdelegates begin to shift towards Obama at an even faster rate. Obama rides it to a crushing victory in North Carolina and wins a single-digit victory in Indiana. Game over.
2. Obama squeaks out a slim victory in Pennsylvania. Game over.
3. Clinton wins big in Pennsylvania. The media plays it up as a big needed victory for her. "It's anyone's race" many will say. Obama crushes in North Carolina but Clinton barely wins Indiana. Then Clinton crushes in West Virginia. Then they split the next contests, Hillary winning Kentucky and Obama winning Oregon. Then it goes on and on and on and on and on and on...
But don't worry. Get your forks ready. It's almost done.