I started working on a column on March 30th titled "Why I think Barack CAN WIN in Pennsylvania." I never finished it and saw a diary early today with a similar title and I agreed with the points the writer made.
I also read a diary on Wednesday by Kos titled "Ridiculous PA poll" in which he stated, "there's no way in hell there has been a 28-point swing in this race in two weeks." I strongly disagree... because... it wasn't 28% of the voters changing it was actually only about 14% of Hillary voters 14 out of every 100 voters to change to Barack. Just over 1 in 10 of Hillary's supporters of all voters switching to Obama in the past two weeks. I think that not only is that possible but it should be absolutely no surprise to ANYONE.
Look at was has happened in the past weeks. Hillary of course has had very bad news with snipergate. Barack has picked up the endorsement of a highly respected Pennsylvania Senator. That alone I would suggest would be worth a 3 to 5 point switch of Hillary supporters to Barrack which of course would calculate to a 6 to 10 point gain in polling.
Also in recent weeks Barack has given two or three of his best speeches of his career. One of which may live on in American political discourse for decades.
So yes, I say not only is the 28 point gain possible but that if less than 1.5 in 10 of Hillary supporters all voters hadn't moved to Barack in Pennsylvania in the past 2 to 3 weeks that would be unexpected.
Oh well, we'll just have to wait and see how the next couple of polls go -- but more importantly, how the poll on April 22nd goes.
I think Barack knows he has a shot in PA, that's why he's spending considerable time and money there. He's had two or three chances now for the knockout blow and missed. I believe deep down he didn't think it should be that easy and thought to himself he probably needed some more preparation before the general election. Felt he kind of needed another pre-season game or two before the real battle began.
But that being said, I feel that Barack probably now feels IT'S TIME -- it's time for him and the Democratic party to begin putting their time and resources to winning on November 4th. If the voters of Pennsylvania deliver then that's exactly what can happen.
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STRIKETHROUGHS UPDATED ON APRIL 4TH
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Cross posted at JustAThoughtThatsAll.com and DailyDoseOfObamaVids.com