Yesterday, in a conversation about the Gallup tracking, I posted this (with my subsequent correction):
I've been playing along with the Gallup Numbers at home trying to guess the dailies behind the 3-day rolling. Here's my best guess
Apr: O-C
- 51-40
- 50-42
- 50-43
- 48-42 (debate in pm)
- 44-48
- 44-47
- 52-40
- 50-40
Now, this has a MoE of infinity, but the numbers do add up, and it makes sense: Things were pretty stable until the debate, then Obama took a 2-day hit, recovering by the weekend. If we see something like 50-40 tomorrow, it'll suggest this is right.
And we have today's Daily Gallup Tracking Poll in showing Obama up...
... wait for it...
50-40.
The tracking polls will drive you batty, but one thing that trying to keep track of the daily numbers does is help figure out what's likely a trend and what's likely a short-term blip. By Saturday, I was convinced it was done, just as goofball Lanny Davis was jumping up and down saying we should all watch this poll.
So, there you have it -- the poll caused a 2-day blip of about 6 points either way, and then the lift disappeared completely.