Hillary began this primary season with tremendous advantages. She has huge name recognition. She has the same name as the last Democratic president, who was beloved by most of the party... who also happens to be her husband. She had the best fundraisers in the party, headed by Terry McAuliffe. She had also locked up the support of nearly 200 superdelegates. Ever since she has been trying to knock her competition out of the primary.
Her first attempt came in Iowa. Her campaign had been running her as the inevitable nominee. Her opposition was heavily fragmented. She probably only needed to muster 40% of the vote to win. She could not land the knock out punch. Not only did she not land the knockout punch, but she came in third - behind Obama and Edwards. This must have given the superdelegates pause. She had so many advantages, but those advantages didn't translate into votes. She had become vulnerable. And this vulnerability was reflected in the Democratic electorate. Yikes.
She then had a chance to knock Obama out of primary in heavily African American South Carolina. By this point, Obama was Clinton's only opposition remaining in the race. If she could win South Carolina, she could show that African Americans, who make up a significant percentage of the Democratic electorate, were behind her. In early polling, she held an advantage over Obama in African American voters. Her husband was beloved by the African American community. She failed to close the deal. She lost South Carolina, and she lost her African American support. The African Americans were becoming unified around Obama. Worse, the superdelegates now had to risk alienating a core constituency in the Democratic Party if they threw their support behind Clinton. Hillary had the opening for a knockout punch in South Carolina, but went to the mat, herself, instead.
Prior to Super Tuesday, she attempted another knockdown punch. Her allies in Florida and Michigan moved up their primaries as an attempt to short-circuit the ability of anyone to campaign against Clinton. There were other reasons, but this was the outcome of these states jumping the gun - regardless of their intentions. Fortunately, the DNC put a stop to these contests, thwarting her ability to land a knockout punch here.
The next big opportunity for Hillary Clinton to score a knockout punch was Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday had more contests than it has ever had before. Obama didn't have the opportunity to campaign much in so many states. He was still suffering from a name recognition problem, and his message had not yet reached the masses. With the odds stacked about Obama, it once again looked like Clinton was inevitable. She had the chance to end the primary season. But she did not. Clinton did not score her knockout punch on Super Tuesday. To the contrary, she lost ground on Super Tuesday. Worse, Obama had reached the masses. Obama had gained traction in an environment that didn't appear to have an opening for him. On the other hand, Clinton had once again failed to meet expectations. The superdelegates must have seen how Obama was surging despite the odds; whereas Clinton wasn't able to hold her ground. They must have thought about the ramifications in the general election because they started turning to Obama. Clinton had missed yet another opportunity.
Her next chance for a knockout came the first week of March. February was structured in a way that it would be unlikely for her to gain much ground. Still, she preemptively missed the March knockout chance. She refused to strongly contest the February contests. This turned her March knockout opportunity into a get-back-in-it opportunity. The knockout had previously appeared to be a possibility because of the large numbers of voters (it's hard for Barack to reach them all). There is tension between African and Hispanic Americans that was thought would keep Obama's numbers down in Texas. Hillary also has a long history in the state. Ohio is classic Clinton country as well, based on the size and demographics. Early polls showed her with 20 point margins in these states. After Super Tuesday this appeared to be her knockout punch in-waiting. She could not close the deal. By now, she has failed to close the deal so many times that her opponent is taking advantage. Obama has mounted a nearly insurmountable delegate lead.
Clinton recognizes that she is running out of opportunities to end this, so she tries to manufacture other methods of knockout punches. Plagiarism. Wright. Popular Vote. Big States. Swing States. FL and MI do-overs. They floundered, all.
Prior to March, Hillary saw Pennsylvania as an opportunity for a knockout punch. It appeared to be her last real attempt at a big electoral knockout punch. However, by April 22, her would-be knockout punch opportunity turned into a staying-alive desperation flail. Still, she had teh cards to play. Pennsylvania had her demographics even moreso that Ohio. Independents and Republicans who normally favor Obama were locked out of the process. Pennsylvanians like familiar politicians (in most states, losing elections will kill your career, not here - PA likes to defeat a candidate a few times before they elect them). But alas, she did not achieve the knockout punch she needed.
At this point, we can move beyond saying that Clinton has missed an opportunity to close the deal. We can say that Clinton did not close the deal. Obama has run up an insurmountable lead, and there are no legitimate chances left for Hillary to deliver that knockout punch.
Oh wait... what? The Clinton campaign and media are trying to sell me on the notion that who can't close the deal and land a knockout punch?
Really???