Don't shoot the messenger, folks, but here are the facts. I just checked with Slate's Delegate Counter (which has already updated with results from PA, for some reason giving the delegate split as the +16 which was said to be the most favorable possibility for HRC), and, after playing with the sliders for awhile, can actually see a scenario where Hillary Clinton could wind up with the lead in pledged delegates. Assuming that superdelegates would never dare to overturn the pledged-delegate result, this shows the way that Hillary can still win the nomination fair-and-square:
- First off, on May 3rd, she wins big in Guam, by a margin of twenty points (60%-40%).
- Then, on May 6th, she shocks Obama with an upset in North Carolina and a win in Indiana. But not just narrow wins -- no, she actually wins both contests in blowouts, once again by twenty points (60%-40%) each.
- Then, she goes on to West Virginia on May 13th. Since this is considered one of her "sure bet" states, it would only make sense that she would do better here than in North Carolina or Indiana, so we'll give it to her by thirty points (65%-35%).
- On May 20th, she wins Kentucky by the same margin as West Virginia (65%-35%). She also takes Oregon, but, since they have a lot of latte-drinking, Prius-driving, out-of-touch elitists there, her margin will only be twenty points (60%-40%) in that race.
- Then comes Puerto Rico on June 1st. Since there are lots of Latinos there, look for it to be Hillary country, by a 65%-35% margin.
- Finally, Montana and South Dakota round out the primaries on June 3rd, with Hillary victories by her customary 60%-40% landslide in each.
- Now, while that closes the gap significantly, it would still leave her trailing by 56 delegates. So, it's time to pull some strings on the credentials committee and/or among the superdelegates in a floor fight, and get the Florida and Michigan delegations seated as-is. For convenience's sake, I'm using Chris Bowers's projections of the delegations those two states will seek to have seated (Florida: C 105, O 67, E 13; Michigan: C 73, O 55).
- Now, that would only leave Clinton and Obama tied in pledged delegates, so, as a final coup, Hillary convinces Edwards to endorse her, with his 13 Florida delegates putting her over the top!
With all that, the final pledged-delegate total would stand at Clinton 1780, Obama 1767. A narrow lead, sure, but enough of one for Clinton's campaign to issue a persuasive call to superdelegates to respect the results of the pledged-delegate tally. The only question at that point would be: will Obama be a loyal Democrat, and accept Hillary's offer of the vice-presidential spot?
So, there you have it. See, all those who claim that Hillary can't win it are whistling in the dark! All she needs to do is win every primary from here on out by twenty points, except for thirty-point wins in Kentucky, West Virginia, and Puerto Rico, plus win the floor fight to seat the delegations from two invalid primaries, and snag the Edwards endorsement. Easy -- one might even say "inevitable." Surely, anyone with Hillary's brilliance, leadership, and persistence should have no trouble "closing the deal" by accomplishing all that, right?