Why Can't Obama "Finish the Game"?
It seems every pundit (and not so punditry people) are asking the same question:
Why can't Obama finish the game? Why can't he close off Clinton?
The answer is staring them in the face in the exit polls and it is about time the traditional media starts recognizing it.
When Clinton voters were asked about voting for Barack Obama in November if he were the nominee only 50% of those asked said they would vote for Obama. That's an incredibly low number. Look at the opposite, 67% of Obama supporters state they would vote for Clinton if she were the nominee. Something is fueling this bitter divide and I think we all know where that division is coming from.
CNN says,
Only 50 percent of Clinton voters in Pennsylvania said they would support Obama if he is the nominee. Twenty-six percent said they would back McCain over Obama, and 19 percent said they would not vote at all.
Among Obama’s Pennsylvania voters, 67 percent said they would support Clinton if she is the party's nomine. Seventeen percent said they would back McCain instead, and 12 percent said they would stay home.
So what exactly is happening here? I believe Clinton is demonizing Barack to the point where her supporters not only won't switch, but come to loathe Obama. She does this by attacking on small distraction issues and making them into big issues about character and the like.
In states where Clinton is ahead (OH, PA, TX) she launches an all out assault questioning Obama at every turn. Obama, meanwhile, is not as vitriolic in his attacking and mainly plays the defense. This is hurting Obama but keeping his trustworthiness and honesty numbers up. He is generally more likable but viewed as weak.
The OH and TX contests spawned the infamous 3AM ad. This time around in PA she uses images of 9/11, Pearl Harbor, and stock market crashes to scare up votes. Her message is very simple, "I am tougher than Obama." However, she is driving this home using fear. Fear of the unknown quantity and this is reflecting very strongly in the poll numbers. I can't find any numbers like I found in PA in regards to "If your candidate is the nominee will you vote for the other?"
If you notice the ads on the Clinton side in NC coming through they are very different in tone and message. They are positive "What can I do?" ads and they don't mention Obama at all. Why? Because her negativity at best freezes support on both sides rather than bring her any extra support. She has to remain positive and try and gain support (which in NC I don't think she'll be able to) and she certainly does not want to freeze the NC numbers where they are.
To sum it up, Clinton hedges support early on and then launches a series of negative attacks in the home stretch. This stems the inevitable flow of support and maintains a her lead. It isn't so much that Obama can't close, it is a matter of Clinton discovering a strategy that makes Obama look so awful to her supporters that she maintains her lead and stops her loss of support. In essence, going negative for her freezes the numbers on both sides. It galvanizes her own support while doing the same for him.
It has much more to do with voter susceptibility to these kinds of attack rather than Obama's inability to "close the deal."