First, I'd like to give you a bonus quiz, for those who didn't watch MSNBC last night. Pat Buchanan and Rachel Maddow were having a little back-and forth over what Obama/Hillary means in terms of Obama's chances versus McCain in November. Maddow said:
There is no connection between the inability to beat Hillary Clinton and whether or not you can beat John McCain... two totally different kinds of elections.
How did Buchanan respond? Answer at the end.
Let's take a look at where we sit today. It looks like Clinton netted about 10 delegates last night, 84-74 though this could move a couple as the results finalize. I'm using DemConWatch for all my numbers here.
This takes the pledged delegate count to 1490-1337. Committed superdelegates sit at 231-255. This leaves 307 superdelegates outstanding, of which 62 are add-ons.
The add-ons are pretty easy to get a good handle on, since they tend to follow the state. Sometimes states split them, but this isn't always the case, and just assigning them per state should get us within a couple of the eventual total. I assigned each candidate the states they won, plus those they're likely to win -- MT, NC, OR, and SD for Obama, KY, WV, and PR for Clinton. Indiana has one toss-up. I gave Nevada to Obama ... even though Clinton won the PV there, the add-on is selected at convention, and he has more delegates. For Texas, due to the split system, I gave 2 to Clinton and 1 to Obama. Indiana could go either way, so I'll just give it to Clinton -- if she loses Indiana, this exercise is likely futile anyway. That leads to an add-on split of 36 Obama, 26 Clinton.
245 unpledged superdelegates remain, and 408 pledged delegates will be awarded in the 9 remaining contests.
So, we have one known: the current delegate total, along with a pretty solid projection of the add-ons, which comes up to 1757-1618.
There are two unknowns: the remaining pledged delegate allocation, and how the outstanding supers will break.
Let's look at three scenarios from here: "Clinton wins IN," "Likely," and "Clinton's Dream."
"Clinton wins IN" follows the polls and uses history as a guide, but allows for a positive-Clinton case where she holds down the margin in NC and wins Indiana to continue and builds a little momentum. We take the most recent polling data and then try to predict the final outcome based on similar neighboring states.
GU: 50-50 (Guam only has 4 delegates, so it would take a huge win to break otherwise)
NC: 55-45 After throwing out a 25-point outlier, the average spread is 13 over the last week. Let's tighten it up for a good Clinton Scenario, one tighter
IN: 51-49 Recent polls show Obama +5.
WV: 35-65 Only one poll in the last year, and it was Clinton+28
OR: 50-50 Only recent poll shows Obama+10, but let's give her a fighting chance.
KY: 35-65 Again, only one recent poll, Clinton+30. Let's just go with that.
PR: 40-60 Only poll out was Clinton+13. We'll give her a momentum bump
MT: 55-45 No polling data, but neighboring states say Obama strong
SD: 55-45 Only one poll Obama+14. Let's cut it down.
Tot Delegates: 195-213
"Likely" just kind of goes along with the polls:
GU: 50-50
NC: 57-43
IN: 52-48
WV: 36-64
OR: 55-45
KY: 35-65
PR: 44-56
MT: 57-43
SD: 57-43
Tot Delegates: 204-204
"Clinton's Dream" extends this to about the best case possible:
GU: 37-63
NC: 50-50
IN: 40-60
WV: 30-70
OR: 45-55
KY: 30-70
PR: 35-65
MT: 45-55
SD: 45-55
Tot Delegates: 169-239
First, the "Likely" scenario. Add 204 to each candidate and the count goes to 1961-1822. To win the nomination, Obama would need 63 of the 245 uncommitted supers (26%). Clinton would need 204 of the 245 (83%). It's clear that under this scenario, Obama will win. There's no conceivable way that he cannot get 26% of the supers to commit with a 150 PD lead and a 140 lead overall. If Clinton does not outperform the polls as they are today, she stands no chance at the nomination.
Next, let's look at what happens at the scenario where Clinton has a good day on May 6 and uses it to build some momentum. A final delegate tally of 195-213 takes the total to 1952-1831. Note that this is only an 18 net swing (plus/minus 9) from the last scenario. Obama's win number among the supers goes to 72 (29%) and Clinton's drops to 195 (80%). This is not substantially different numerically, and although she'll certainly go on to make her case, it's almost impossible to believe that Obama could not get at least 30% of the superdelegates to confirm his nomination.
Finally, let's look at the Clinton dream scenario, 169-239, moving 26 more delegates over for a final tally of 1926-1857. Note that Obama's still significantly ahead on both delegate counts here -- 69 overall. He'd now need 98 (40%) to win, and she'd need 169 (69%). Can she convince over two-thirds of the superdelegates to vote for her instead?
If she can -- if Hillary Clinton can convince nearly 70% of the outstanding superdelegates to deny the nomination to the delegate leader, then she has a glimmer of potential hope in the most unlikely of scenarios.
Of course, if that's the case -- why aren't the superdelegates already breaking for her?
Also keep in mind, that as superdelegates declare, the more that do not declare by better than a 2:1 ratio for Clinton make this scenario more difficult. Can Clinton still win?
In her dream.
Answer to bonus quiz:
Rachel Maddow: There is no connection between the inability to beat Hillary Clinton and whether or not you can beat John McCain... two totally different kinds of elections.
Pat Buchanan: Let's hold the Marxist dialectic for a minute. You may believe right now...
For those of you who said, "he called her a Marxist," full marks. Well done.