I heard some commentator say last night that although Obama has a "slim lead," the rules of the Democratic Nomination Process will prevent her from making a big pickup.
This is, of course, utter nonsense. The rules of the process are the same now and going forward as they were when Obama built his lead. There's only one rational takeaway: if these "big wins" Senator Clinton get can't overcome the lead -- or even make a dent in it, it's not that slim, is it?
It's just an optical illusion.
It is, after all, an inevitable consequence of a 2-person race and the proportional allocation system. But those percentages mean nothing -- what's important in a 2-way race, in the end, is how many more delegates you get than your opponent.
I took the latest sheet out from the Obama camp today and looked at it. It varies by like 3 delegates from the Green Papers count which DemConWatch uses, so adjust if you like. But consider...
Obama's got a pledged delegate lead of 161. How big is 161?
- It's the "big win" in Pennsylvania. Ten times. And one.
- Clinton could make up the ground if we gave a double-dose of delegates to her big wins in:
New York (46)
and California (38)
and Arkansas (19)
and Massachusetts (17)
and Tennessee (12)
and New Jersey (11)
and Pennsylvania (10)
and Ohio (7)
that is 161 delegates.
- 161 pledged delegates is more than Pennsylvania had in total.
- 161 delegates is nearly 40% of what is left. For Clinton to catch Obama, she just needs to average 70-30 wins in all the remaining states.
How about the "big win" in Pennsylvania. How big was this 10 delegate win?
It's as big as Hillary's well-covered win in Oklahoma (10). And not as big as her wins in Tennessee (12) or Arkansas (19), both of which were similarly game changing.
It's as big as Obama's win in Wisconsin (10), but not as big as his victories in Iowa (11), Idaho (12), Louisiana (12), South Carolina (13), Kansas (14), Maryland (14), or Colorado (17). It's less than half the size of his wins in Minnesota (24), Virginia (25), or Washington (28). It's less than a third of the size of his win in Georgia (33).
Slim lead indeed.