I've been keeping random screen shots of RCP delegate counts since, oh, mid-March, right after the VT/RI/OH/TX/WY/MI week. After Pennsylvania Tuesday, I'd thought I'd take a look at how far Obama had fallen. And you know what? Not much has changed.
On March 21, Obama was up by 131 total delegates. On April 24, Obama is up by 131 total delegates. His spread of pledged delegates has fallen by 14 (from 168 to 154), but that has been exactly offset by his superdelegate gains (Clinton's lead has dropped from 37 to 23).
So both campaigns have spent millions of donor dollars on continued primary activity and we are exactly where we were a month ago. Is there reason to believe that a continued bleed of Democratic dollars is going to change this equation at all? Looking ahead, it looks like Clinton and Obama will trade delegates reason back and forth, but essentially we probably will be where we are now, with Obama ahead by 150 or so with increasing superdelegate support.
What if those dollars could instead be spent on the national campaign? But they won't, they'll just be thrown down the rabbit hole.