Here's a few thoughts on electablity: would like to hear some reaction. This is not a polyanna Obama has it locked up diary, he has some problems BUT I think he will still win.
- First and foremost Hillary can not beat McCain because to be blunt as James Clyburn put it most black people will take the way she would "win" personally. The media which loves her now because she's keeping the drama alive would immediately taint her as stealing the nomination from Obama with the help of insiders in smoke filled rooms that worked for husband. Millions of black/young Obama voters would converge on Denver to protest and plunge the party into civil war. The good thing is most supers know this so at the end of the day Obama will be the nominee EVEN if they think he will likely lose the general. To be brutally honest even if one buys the Hillary argument that Obama is unelectable one can not escape the fact that the way she would become the nominee would render her unelectable as well so in reality our safest choice is Obama. This does not mean he doesn't face major problems in the fall.
- Some "straight talk": Obama will not get certain types of voters that have voted dems for years because of race. There should be no illusions that he isn't going to do Gore and Kerry numbers in places like Northeast Philly or in Appalachia. He is going to have to make up the votes by massive turnout among his base. The biggest factor in determining what % of the vote Obama gets is how high can he get the % of the general electorate to be under 40 whites and african American. He will win those groups so overwhelmingly that he won't need Gore and Kerry numbers among White older voters. This is what the 50 state voter registration thing is all about, Obama must change the nature of the electorate to win.
3 How does Obama keep Dem leaning older whites from voting McCain? As we know this is the problem he faces especially in Penn,Mich and Ohio. First forget Florida Obama can't beat McCain in that state, the economy is not a big issue and Obama will not get the numbers from elderly Jews any dem needs to even have a chance in the Sunshine state. My solution is to pound McCain on Social Security and his support for private accounts. To be honest some of our base of poorer white older voters need to be made to be more afraid of McCain than they are of voting for a young black man. I think the economy and trade will work to keep most white working class folks from voting McBush but seniors may need that extra push to get over the hump. For other Hillary supporters simply running as a generic dem should do it. Remember Obama will perform much better than Gore or Kerry with indies who are educated he just needs to keep the nuber of Gore/Kerry voting dems who will have issues with Obama over Wright, Muslim lies ect....to a minimum. Honestly there are quite a few voters out there that Obama can never reach, but he is certaily is electable and I think he will win.