As anyone who reads this site knows, especially anyone who chooses to delve into the diaries, Senator Hillary Clinton won the Pennsylvania primary on Tuesday by 9.14% over Senator Barack Obama. With over 200,000 more votes than her opponent, the non-psychotically-obsessed observers amongst us might think that Senator Clinton had scored a major victory that changes the face of the race.
The rest of us know that picking up a net of 10 delegates when you're down over 150 with only 408 more pledged delegates left to win in a state favorable isn't enough to do that, nor enough to get the 300+ undecided superdelegates to support you en masse.
After the jump, a (hopefully helpful) primer on how delegate math is done, and the delegate math for the next two contests on the schedule, the Indiana Primary on May 6th and the Guam caucus on May 3rd.
edit: This is a repost, given that ~30 people read the original and 20 of them rec'd it. Just going for a wider audience @ not 4am on a Friday. I acknowledge for the faux pas.
A Recipe for Disaster
Change may be this election years buzzword, but delegates are what make the world go round. And what makes delegates go round, at least for Democrats, is "proportional representation." Unlike our friends and foes across the aisle, Democrats do not engage in winner-take-all primaries and caucuses. Thus, while John McCain can win South Carolina with less than 40% of the total vote and still get every last delegate, Barack Obama can win Iowa by 8 points over his nearest opponent and net a lousy singular delegate more. This bright idea is the reason why we don't have a candidate yet, and why I'm able to use this as an excuse to avoid learning the Federal Rules of Evidence.
Q: Wait, so how does proportional representation work? If Clinton won 54.7% of the vote, shouldn't she get 54.7% of the delegates? So shouldn't she have gotten 86.426 delegates and he 71.574? And how can you split a delegate that way, anyways? People with two heads? Delegates with multiple personalities? Imaginary numbers? Stranglets? The still undecided voter?
A: Nothing that simple, unfortunately. What makes delegate math math is that, starting in 1970, the Democrats decided that they should reward congressional districts that voted for Democrats more than those that voted for Republicans. Seeing as these delegates are for the Democratic Presidential Primary, it makes sense that more delegates would come from Democratic strongholds like Philadelphia than hard core Republican districts due to the higher number of Democrats in the strongholds. So, the end result is that each district is assigned a certain number of delegates, with additional At Large and PLEO-
Q: Pleo?
A: No, PLEO stands for Party Leaders and Elected Officials.
Q: So, they're superdelegates?
A: Yes, but unlike the ones getting all the headlines, they're bound by the statewide results to vote for a particular candidate on the first ballot at the convention. Where was I?
Q: "So, the end result is that each district is assigned a certain number of delegates, with additional At Large and PLEO-"
A: Thanks. It's nice to have conversations with myself. Even if I interrupt myself. Anyways, Districts divide up a bunch of the delegates that a state has, and the rest are "At Large" or "PLEO" delegates. These delegates are apportioned based off of the statewide result. In Pennsylvania there were 35 At Large and 20 PLEO delegates for grabs. These were each seperated into Clinton and Obama piles based on delegate math.
The formula for number of AL and PLEO delegates earned for the winning candidate in a two person race is as follows: If you win 50%+1, you get either 1 or no more delegates than your opponent. 1 if your state has an odd number of AL+PLEO delegates, and 0 if it has an even number. Thus, the bare winner of Indiana would get 13 delegates out of 25, while the same 1 vote victory in NC would gain 19 of 38 delegates. Are you still with me?
Q: Very tenuously.
A: Ok, to earn delegates above the 50% split, the winner has to meet a certain threshold. Math Warning: That threshold is a victory by X% where X is 200/N (where N is the number of statewide delegates at stake). In PA, that'd be 200/55, or 3.63636363636363-
Q: Can we please round that to 3.6%? Pretty please? I'm willing to offer cherries on top if needed.
A: Oh, fine. But it's not precise. Anyways, for every 3.6% that Clinton wins by, she gets an additional delegate and takes one away from Obama. If she fails to meet the 3.6 point threshold, even by 1 vote, she doesn't get that additional delegate. Since she "only" won by 9.14%, she only gets +2 delegates statewide and Obama only loses 2.
Q: Ooook. That's... almost clear. So how did Senator Clinton only win 5 more delegates across Pennsylvania's 19 Congressional Districts?
A: Well, you know how I said that Democrats tried to reward loyal districts? Which is one of the parties most loyal groups?
Q: Oh Oh, I know! Unitarian Universalists.
A: ...
Q: Yankees?
A: ...
Q: Wait, DAMN Yankees!
A: sigh African Americans.
Q: I knew that!
A: Sure you did. Anyways, because African Americans are one of the most loyal constituencies, predominantly African American districts, like PA-2, get more delegates. Because Senator Obama does so well among that group he won more delegates in the 2nd, 6 of the 9. Meanwhile, he got his clock cleaned in the heavily Republican 9th district 83,000 to 41,000, but because proportional representation only gave them 3 delegates, he only lost 1 net delegate in the ensuing 2:1 split.
Q: Ok, so, what you're saying is that each state has a certain number of delegates per congressional district that are based on how the candidate does in that district, and each state also has a bunch of delegates based upon the statewide result.
A: Correct.
Q: So how do these district delegates get allocated?
A: Depends on the number of delegates, but each size has a threshold level where that % + 1 vote results in an additional delegate for the winner. In every district there is a 15% floor, which a candidate has to reach to get any delegates. If a candidate wins above 85% of the vote, they get every delegate in the district. To my knowledge that hasn't happened so far.
It's not germane to anything other than my chances to win a delegate from the Minnesota 5th some day, but in 3 or more way races the 15% floor still applies. Candidates below the floor don't count towards the total, either. G.E.G. (gratuitous exempli gratis) if I got all my friends to vote for me in a presidential primary and got 5% of the vote in my district while Clinton and Obama split the other 95% only their 95% would count when deciding the split of delegates from my district.
Q: Pfft, like you have enough friends to do that. You spend half your weekends playing World of Warcraft.
A: Hey, online friends are still friends... Anyways, here's how they split based on number of delegates.
Math Warning
3 delegates: 50%+1 for 2:1
4 delegates: 62.5% for 3:1
5 delegates: 50%+1 for 3:2, 70% for 4:1
6 delegates: 58.43% for 4:2, 75% for 5:1
7 delegates: 50%+1 for 4:3, 64% for 5:2, 78% for 6:1
8 delegates: 56.25% for 5:3, 68.75% for 6:2, 81.25% for 7:1
9 delegates: 50%+1 for 5:4 61.1% for 6:3, 72.2% for 7:2, 83.3% for 8:1
Q: Why those percentages?
A: It was a dare by Scoop Jackson to the DNC chair, Lawrence O'Brien, during a game of "truth or dare" in 1969.
Q: Really?
A: Of course not.
Fred Harris was DNC chair. Duh.
Q: OK jerk, what about Guam? And Puerto Rico. Don't make me pie you, statist pig.
A: Woah, woah, hold on. Guam and Puerto Rico have delegates too. I even said at the top that I'd give a delegate prediction for Guam's caucus!
Q: I have an itchy pie finger. Speak.
A: Puerto Rico has 55 delegates, making it a bigger prize than any remaining state except Indiana and North Carolina. While Puerto Rico doesn't have congressional districts, it does have 8 state government level districts, which each are considered as Congressional Districts for the purposes of the primary. Each district but Bayamon has 4 delegates, while Bayamon has 5. Statewide there are 19 AL and PLEO delegates-
Q: Waiiit a second, that doesn't add up. Literally! That's only 52 delegates! And you think you're teaching me math? I demand a new tutor!
A: You're right. My source for district delegate counts notes that the apportionment of 3 delegates is missing, and I haven't been able to find out online where they're apportioned. So if anyone is still reading this and happens to know, please let me know so I can update later versions of this and get it right when I do the Puerto Rico preview.
Q: Ok, so that's Puerto Rico. What about Guam?
A: Baby steps, baby steps. Guam has 8 delegates, but each only counts for 1/2 of a vote-
Q: Oy. And people wonder why we can't pick a candidate.
A: -so really, they only have 4. All four are Guamwide, given the small size of the territory, much like American Samoa and the US Virgin Islands. Further, Guam is the last caucus on the schedule.
Q: Can we please get to the predictions? That's the only reason I clicked on this diary.
A: Fine. Ignore my witty banter with myself. Wait... that means it's probably not as witty as I thought.
MAY 3RD
Guam
Type: Closed Caucus
Delegate Allocation: "4" AL/PLEO, no CD.
Important Stats: 87% Pacific Islander, 7% White, 6% Asian. Population of 173,456, give or take. 4 US Navy bases, 1 Air Force base, covering nearly 30% of the island.
Obama Offices: 1
Clinton Offices: 0
The Rundown: Guam, and it's sister incorporated territories American Samoa and the US Virgin Islands, are the black sheep of the Primary process. In any other year, they might get a couple mentions in the media and a note or two in the national blogosphere. Given how close things are this year and how each candidate needs every delegate possible to creep towards the magic number of 2,024. To win enough of the caucus to break the 75% delegate barrier for a 3:1 split is a daunting task for either campaign. Obama has had an office there since late March, which would seem to be an advantage, but Clinton has DNC committeewoman (and superdelegate) Taling Taitano organizing for her.
It's hard to make a good prediction, given the size of the island and the lack of any sort of polling or useful news information. The two similar caucuses, in American Samoa and the US Virgin Islands had wildly different results. American Samoa saw only 284 voters on Super Tuesday, with Clinton winning 57/43 and each gaining 1.5 pledged delegates (yes, 1.5). The US Virgin Islands, on the other hand, saw Obama win 90% of the nearly 2000 votes just 4 days later, sweeping all three pledged delegates. If the Obama campaign is more VI than AS, expect him to do better than a split.
Predicted Split:2:2, Even. A not small chance that Obama's team is able to get to 75%+1 for a 3:1 split or even 85% for the sweep.
UPDATED: As pointed out in the comments, Guam actually has 8 delegates, each of which counts for .5 of a full delegate to the convention. As such, it's much easier to get a real difference as Obama or Clinton only need win 56.25% of the vote to get a 5:3 split (or a 2.5/1.5 real delegate split). 68.75% is still hard to reach, but much easier than 75%, so a 3:1 real delegate split could happen. I'm changing the prediction to 2.5 for Obama to 1.5 for Clinton.
MAY 6TH
Indiana
Type: Open Primary
Delegate Allocation: 25 AL/PLEO, 47 CD, 72 Total
Obama Offices: 21
Clinton Offices: 20
Recent Polling: RCP has it at 45.3/44.3 for Clinton. The last 3 reported polls have Obama up between 1 and 5 points. The last poll showing Clinton ahead is over a week old.
The Rundown: Indiana means Land of Indians. Not so much anymore. More than 85% while, and the minority population is mainly African Americans living in Congressional Districts 1 and 7, where Gary and Indianapolis are located. Often called the southern state of the north, due to its strongly Republican bent. Last won by a Democratic presidential candidate in 1964. Still, it isn't all bad, Democrats currently control 5 of the 9 congressional districts, the 7th has the 2nd Muslim congressman ever elected in Andre Carson, Richard Lugar is one of the more sane Republican Senators, and Evan Bayh, who is one of the less sane Democratic Senators. Going to be a fierce battleground; due to Obama's overwhelming lead in North Carolina Clinton has as much as admitted that she needs to win here or be asked to go home. Given that Clinton will be putting as much as she can into here (note the 20 offices across the state) without losing by more than 30 in NC, expect this state to remain close over the next two weeks. One thing that will help Obama is that Illinois neighbors Indiana, with Chicago (and its huge media market) nearly right across the border. People will have known him longer in the northwestern part of the state, making the more out of left field attacks less likely to have an effect. One thing that might hurt him is that Indiana isn't called the southern state of the north because they grow cotton. If trends hold, there will be about 10-15% undecided voters going into election day/week, and those have in most cases broken for Clinton. I don't see why that would change in Indiana, so I expect a 2-3% gain for Clinton over Obama with them, but he might add a couple percent before the election.
I think the state will go narrowly for Clinton, in part because she needs it to and has been great with her back against the wall, and in part because this exercise in onanism will be even more pointless if she dropped out after May 6th, so I need her to win. That being said, it'll be a razor thin margin. Another reason I believe she'll win is because Obama has shown that while he can close big margins in somewhat similar states (Ohio, Pennsylvania) he doesn't end up getting all the way there. Indiana has more in common with Iowa and downstate Illinois than Ohio, but there's still some rust belt flavor there, fewer than 20% of adults are college grads as opposed to 27% nationwide, and Obama might plateau around 45-48%. If that happens, you'll see a photo finish of 51%-49% Clinton-Obama. Or the other way around.
Predicted Statewide Delegate Split: 13:12, +1 Clinton, could easily be the other way around.
IN-1
Delegates: 6
Fast Facts: 28.4% minority (2nd highest percentage in Indiana). Most of the population lives on lake Michigan, and is a part of the Chicago metro area. 3rd highest per capita income in the state. Parliament Funkadelic named Gary a Chocolate City ("they still call it the white house, but that's a temporary condition, CC").
Obama Offices: 4
Clinton Offices: 3
Key County: Lake
Rundown: One of Obama's best chances to pick up delegates comes from this delegate in the northwest of the state. Until 2003 it was its own district, but the loss of a congressional seat added 3 counties to the south to the district. One of two districts to reliably send a Democrat to congress. No major colleges, but given that both campaigns have offices in a city called East Chicago, you can bet that the voters have known Obama for a while now.
Predicted Split:+2 for Obama, 4:2. He only needs 58.43% to do it, and he'll get somewhere in the 60s, though nowhere near the 75% needed for a 5:1 split.
IN-2
Delegates:6
Fast Facts:South Bend is here, home to the famous Notre Dame Haven't Been Relevant in 2 Decades Irish. Most of the population lives near the border of Michigan, which continues a trend in Indianapolis of most people living near the border of the state but for Indianapolis. It's like they're scared of the corn fields. I would be too if Children of the Corn were set in my state. Wait, that was Nebraska. Anyways, the place is diverse, for Indiana, at 13.4% minority population. A little below the state median for income, at $40k.
Obama Offices: 2
Clinton Offices: 2
Key County: Howard (well, the city of Kokomo, which went for Dem Joe Donnelly over "Count" Chris Chocola in 2006, which is amusing because it was gerrymandered into the district in 2002 to create a safer map for endangered Republican incumbents, and which is dissimilar enough to the rest of the district to decide a close enough race)
Rundown: This district leans Obama due to its location and St. Joseph county (Notre Dame) being the largest and most Democratic, but I have serious doubts that either side will net the 58.43% needed to win 4:2. The big Dem county outside of St. Joseph is LaPorte (Michigan City).
Predicted Split:I don't see how either gets above 58.43%. Even 3:3.
IN-3
Delegates: 4
Fast Facts: 3rd most diverse district in Indiana, at 10.1%. That isn't a typo, east and west coasters. We midwest states be pale. High income for Indiana, $44,000 median income. Fort Wayne is home to the largest Burmese refugee population in America, at 3000-4000 people.
Obama Offices: 1
Clinton Offices: 2
Key County: Allen
Rundown: Fort Wayne, the big city of the 3rd district at 252,000 citizens, is Rust Belt without the Rust. It's one of the few midwest industrial towns that hasn't fallen apart, and currently is the home of GM's Silverado and Sierra SUV assembly plants. Which means they got union members. Which makes Senator Clinton happy, because it means white blue collar men, and more importantly, white blue collar women. The district is Republican, though not overwhelmingly so, and fairly economically healthy after rough patches in the 70's and 80's.
Predicted Split: 2:2, there simply isn't enough here to expect Clinton to get over the 62.5% hump. It's possible that she does off the back of rural votes and lower scale non-minority votes in Fort Wayne, but I don't see it as a more than 1 in 5 chance.
IN-4
Delegates: 4
Fast Facts: Gerrymandered like crazy. Is over 96% white. Home to Purdue University's main campus in West Lafayette. Stretches from the Lafayette area, which is very midwest college town-esque, to the suburbs of Indianapolis, which is very midwest subdivision-esque, to the south around Bedford, which is very midwest rural-esque. Greenwood happens to be the onetime home of Colonel Sanders, which leads one to wonder why it isn't Indiana Fried Chicken.
Obama Offices: 1
Clinton Offices: 2
Key County: Tippecanoe (and Tyler too- but not really)
Rundown: You might think with Purdue University and its 40,000+ students this might not be one of the more Republican districts in the state. Well, you probably wouldn't, you're smarter than me. Anyways, this is the amalgam of the very republican Indy burbs, the slightly more moderate Lafayette/Purdue area, and some rural space they needed to tack on somewhere. It's hard to figure out from a Democratic primary perspective, Purdue isn't as liberal as many universities, not even Notre Dame, and the few Democrats in the burbs and exurbs of Indianapolis are liable to be middle to upper middle class, a group that has trended Obama in other states. Clinton will likely carry the southern rural areas handily which makes me think she has an advantage, as does her placing two offices in the area, one by Purdue and the other down by Crawfordsville.
Predicted Split:Even, 2:2. Probably a 20-30% chance Clinton can swing 62.5% and get 3:1, but these heavily Republican low delegate count districts require blowouts to really get delegate advantages from.
IN-5
Delegates:4
Fast Facts:One of the strongest Republican districts in the nation. Also pretty darned well off, at $52,000 median income, by far and away the best in Indiana. Somewhere between pure and 1 week since painted white. Home to the largest Evangelical Christian universities in the country, Indiana Wesleyan University, with 15,000 students. IWU may have a College Dems group, but no one has ever heard of it.
Obama Offices: 1
Clinton Offices: 1
Key County: Marion
Rundown: Seriously? No one here is going to want to vote for the black guy with a Muslim sounding name or the woman who they've been taught to hate for a decade and a half. I don't see how either gets a serious advantage here, and while I'm sure turnout will be impressive in comparison to the past the highest performing Dem county in 2006 was Miami, which has 36,000 people and went 37% for the Dem congressional candidate.
Predicted Split: 2:2, even. I don't see how either candidate wins big here. They obviously don't, either, each has a single office in the district.
IN-6
Delegates: 5
Fast Facts: Home to Ball State, which has its campus in Muncie. Also home of Rep. Mike Pence, who kinda creeps me out. Might be a personal thing. White (I can't wait to do North Carolina! And Kentucky and Puerto Rico! Sweet diversity! Not so much with Montana). Richmond Indiana was settled by Quakers and was home of one of the first jazz recording studios. That and a powerball ticket for $317 million is about the most interesting thing to ever come from here.
Obama Offices: 2
Clinton Offices: 3
Key County: Delaware
Rundown: Say hello, Rust Belt! "Meh." Aww, the rust belt is still feeling pretty down, given how it had its gleaming metal heart ripped out by globalization. Establishing exactly how adroit a politician she is, Hillary Clinton is seen as a friend of the working man despite her husbands support of NAFTA (a talent that has allowed her to stay in the game and which makes me feel pretty good if she pulls off winning the nomination). Most of the larger towns in the 6th have felt the sting of departing manufacturing jobs harshly, and are still reeling despite the relative prosperity of the 90's. Given the past performance of Delaware county, where Ball State is, I don't see Obama winning here, and if he does, I expect him to win across the state.
Predicted Split: +1 Clinton, though i wouldn't be surprised to see it go +1 Obama if Ball State goes crazy go nuts. I don't see Clinton getting 70% and +2, though, considering that the Ohio counties the 6th most mirror went 55-67% for her. Why'd I have to pick the closest state to start with? Outside of chronological order? Pretty safe for Clinton.
IN-7
Delegates: 6
Fast Facts: Indianapolis! Colts, Indy 500, and a Muslim congressman. Awesome. Also, nearly 30% African American and one of the two currently reliable Dem seats in the state, though that became less so after the 2002 reapportionment that saw former Rep. Julia Carson go from winning 59% of the vote to winning 54% over the next two elections before her death. Home to IUPUI, one of the larger universities in the state with over 10,000 students and occasional cannon fodder as 16 seeds during March Madness.
Obama Offices: 1
Clinton Offices: 1
Key Area: North Central Indianapolis, Obama needs big turnout here to net +2 delegates.
Rundown: This is Obama's best chance for a 2 delegate advantage. Not only does the city have a strong African American population, but there's a good number of educated upscale creative class types that love his wonky inspiration so much. While the city has a history of being very conservative for an urban area, that's changed over the last decade, and I don't forsee that being the case in the future, so independents and republicans could be the difference between 59% and 62.6%, and an extra Obama delegate. The mayor won't make a difference, as they're a Republican.
Predicted Split: +2 Obama. If he gets more than 80% of the black vote, as he's been doing, he's going to have a very good shot at the 62.5% mark even with the predominantly lower scale and female electorates.
IN-8
Delegates: 6
Fast Facts: Home to the federal death row at Terra Haute. Terra Haute is also called the meth capital of the world. Hope they share with the prisoners. Also home to Vincennes University and Indiana State U, both large colleges. Used to be John Hostettler's turf, but he just kinda gave up sometime around 2005 and got crushed by Dem Brad Ellsworth in 2006, 61/49. Evansville is the 3rd largest city in the state. Honkytastic. Poor.
Obama Offices: 2
Clinton Offices: 2
Key County: Vigo
Rundown: While the district went hard D in the most recent congressional election, it still has a Partisan Voter Index of +9, which is pretty strongly Republican. The big key here is which way the area around ISU goes. While there are a lot of students here that should be supporting Obama and their attendant egghead faculty who are fewer in number but more reliable voters, Terra Haute is exactly the sort of lower scale midwestern city that seems to love them some Clinton. Evansville is likewise difficult to figure out, but everything seems to point to a Clinton friendly district. Friendly enough to get to 58.43% I'm not sure about, especially given the proximity to Illinois, but still pretty friendly.
Predicted Split: 3:3, though Clinton has her best chance of any district at gaining a 2 delegate advantage here. Winning here is very important to Clinton, since I don't see anywhere else she's likely to pick up 2 delegates. The other 6 delegate districts are either Obama favorable, (1st, 7th) or college heavy districts that Obama will be putting a lot of money and manpower into (2nd, 9th). Since she isn't going to get more than +1 statewide, and at best can hold Obama to even in the minority heavy districts around Gary and Indianapolis, if she wants to pick up more than 2-3 delegates net she needs to win here. If her staff schedules her around here more than other parts of the state I'll feel pretty confident about this.
IN-9
Delegates: 6
Fast Facts: Bloomington is home to Indiana University and 50,000+ Hoosiers. Outside of Bloomington, the major population center is clustered around the Kentucky border, where Louisville is on the other side. Nicknamed the "Bloody 9th" for the pitfight that occurs every election cycle. The current contenders, Rep. Michael Sodrel (R) and Rep. Baron Hill (D), have faced off in the past 3 elections, with Hill winning in 2002, Sodrel in 2004, and Hill again in 2006. No election was won by more than 5%. They're due for another rematch in 2008.
Obama Offices: 4
Clinton Offices: 3
Key County: Monroe
Rundown: This district will make or break Obama in Indiana. A strong turnout from Bloomington and by the Kentucky border can catapult him to a win alongside victories in the north and around Indianapolis, while a weak showing will give Clinton a good shot at capturing the delegate at stake statewide. Obama knows Bloomington is his bread and butter- Bloomington is the only city in Indiana with two full time field offices (Indianapolis has offsites, but no full satellites). Monroe county, where IU is, provided 16,000 votes to Hill in 2006, and provided the winning margin. Obama needs turnout to be similarly if not more vigorous. Meanwhile, down in Jeffersonville, he needs a good turnout from the African American population that makes up nearly 20% of the 30,000+ town. Clinton can best stifle Obama's chances at success in the 9th by aggressively courting the south eastern portion of the district, which most resembles Ohio and western Kentucky, both strong states for her, while seeking to limit Obama's margin around Bloomington.
Predicted Split: 3:3, even. Obama might be able to get above 58.43% here and grab a 4:2 margin, but his strength in the north central area is counterbalanced by the large amount of rural votes and the New Albany/Jeffersonville/Clarksville area that doesn't have many of his base groups. I don't see Clinton holding Obama under 43% here.
Predicted Overall Delegate Swag: My base predictions show Clinton picking up +1 from the statewide split and +1 from the 6th district, while Obama picks up +4 on the basis of his strength in urban Indianapolis and the Chicago metro area. That would be a +2 net gain for Obama, even with Clinton narrowly winning statewide, and a 37:35 overall delegate split.
If things break best for Obama, he's looking at a +8 net delegate gain, at 40:32. If that happens, well, the race is over and I technically win my goal for this exercise (less than 20 net delegates off total by the end of the primaries and/or one candidate suspends/ends their campaign) barring Obama winning 11 more net delegates than I predict in North Carolina and Guam. But I won't be that psyched about being that wrong after being just 2 off in Pennsylvania.
If things break Clinton, she's looking at a +8 gain from Indiana, which isn't shabby at all and keeps her alive barring a horrific 30 point loss in North Carolina on the same day, but she faces a tougher battle in that Obama really only needs for 2 districts that demographically favor him to go his way to win delegates while she only has one very favorable district with two more that might be favorable but could easily leave her with no net gain.
fin
Well, that's it for now. On Saturday I'll be putting up North Carolina and West Virginia, Sunday will be Kentucky and Oregon, and Monday or Tuesday will be Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota. Maybe I'll find those 3 wayward pledged delegates from PR by then.
Hopefully some people had as much reading this as I had compiling and writing it. Please point out mistakes where I made them, or give your own predictions, or just give feedback. Rec's would be nice too, but I don't really expect that. I mean, crikey, it's clear I'm not an expert.
Thank Yous and Acknowledgments:
www.thegreenpapers.com for delegate numbers by district and statewide.
www.pollingreport.com for information on % breakdowns per district size.
www.wikipedia.org for more than is easily attributable in 1 line.
PocketNines's diary on delegate math.
