Why can't Obama "seal the deal"? That's what all the pundits (including Cafferty here) are asking. Because.... (wait for it)...the two strongest candidates in this presidential cycle are Democrats. Arguably, when the race included more candidates, the THREE strongest candidates were Democrats (I'm thinking here of John Edwards).
Hillary is a very tough candidate. She has scads of name recognition, a strong base within core constiuencies of the Democratic party--including women, who have been waiting for a credible presidential candidate for a long time. (My wife and several co-workers fall into this category, and, much as I am rooting for Obama, I have to sympathize). Moreover, relative to Republicans like McCain, Sen Clinton has mounted a strong fundraising effort. She is very articulate, tenacious and combative, and she also has an experienced team of campaigners behind her even if they don't seem to quite understand the merits of the 50 state strategy. She would have won in a walk against any other Democrat.
Obama has bested HRC in most of the areas listed above, and he has at least matched her in the others, but she is a very tough candidate to beat. In Pennsylvania, he was competing in a state where all of her own inherent advantages were in play--this was a tough state in which to close the deal.
I think Obama has an excellent chance of closing the deal on May 6—if he can win not only NC but Indiana. Even a marginal win in the popular vote (which will have scant impact on the delegate count) could be a clincher. At this point the popular vote, which affects the psychology of the race, now matters more than the delegate count, which Obama will ultimately win.
We aren't in the sort of situation where, as in some localities, the primary is the election. And we should definitely not underestimate McCain. But let's also acknowledge the fact that Obama's toughest race may turn out to be the one for the Democratic nomination. If he wins that, in a country that is trending strongly Democratic, Obama should be able to beat anybody.
Updates: I put "Close the deal" in quotes in my title because I agree with some posters below that he has closed the deal and the media just wouldn't admit it. In fact, ironically enough, he closed the deal in PA, if not before, because HRC couldn't add significantly to her delegate count.
Also, I just got "hide" powers for the first time after posting this diary, so I guess your recs put me over the top. Thanks!